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Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 27, 2022 at 03:01
Activity components:The DM flash forward-looking components decreased sharply for serviceso(future activity down by -6.0pt) on concerns over the war in Ukraine.The composite flash employment PMI increased in the US (+1.4pt)oconsistent with mostly positive early US employment surveys, ticked up inAustralia (+0.4pt) and in the UK (+0.3pt), and remained roughly unchangedin the Euro Area and Japan.
Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 27, 2022 at 03:00
Country-level trends:The manufacturing flash PMI increased in the US (+1.2pt), edged up inoJapan (+0.4pt) and Australia (+0.3pt), but declined in the Euro Area (-1.1pt)and especially in the UK (-2.5pt).The services flash PMI increased in Japan (+4.5pt) and the US (+2.4pt),obut edged down in the Euro Area (-0.6pt). Early US business activitysurveys were strong for services, but mixed for manufacturing.
Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 27, 2022 at 02:59
DM trends:The DM composite flash PMI increased by 1.4pt in March, reflecting anoexpansion in services (+1.6pt) from further easing of Omicron restrictions.
Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:27
One feature of our forecast is a modest inversion of the 2s10s yield curve bynyear-end. However, we note that the nominal curve tends to invert more easily ina high inflation environment, and we could see earlier and/or deeper curveinversions this cycle. In such an environment, a deeper nominal curve inversionmay be needed to produce the same recession odds in models as seen in morerecent business cycles.
Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:27
Our forecast revisions at the front end are larger: our 2y forecasts for YE22 andnYE23 are 2.9% and 3.15%; while the former is only about 20bp above currentforwards, the latter is roughly 50bp higher, reflecting our higher terminal rateassumption. At longer maturities, we see a more gradual increase, given ourexpectations for strong demand from liability-driven investors—we now expect30y yields to end the year at 2.75%.
Razor EA
em
Sistemas de Negociação
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:25
In today’s note, we update our forecasts for US Treasury yields across the curveto reflect more broad-based and persistent price pressures and theaccompanying hawkish Fed pivot. We see the benchmark 10y UST yields endingthe year at 2.7%, up from our prior projection of 2.25%. The risks to our forecastare two-sided; a deescalation of the war in Ukraine or more persistent inflationcould mean even higher realized levels, whereas the opposite could result inlower levels.
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