COPPER Analysis: The impact of Trump’s tariffs is boosting copper prices

Fundamental Analysis of COPPER COPPER Key Takeaways 

The impact of Trump’s tariffs: The market expects Trump to impose high import tariffs on copper and silver. COMEX near-month copper is also $623 per ton higher than LME copper of the same period. In 2025, the constraints on copper supply will push copper prices further up. 

NFP are about to be announced: The United States will announce the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in December, and the market expects an increase of 160,000 people, compared with an increase of 227,000 people in the previous month; at the same time, the United States will announce the unemployment rate in December, and the market forecast is 4.20%, compared with 4.20% in the previous month. 

Copper prices are less affected: Looking back over the past year, the correlation of copper prices after the release of non-farm payrolls is the lowest among many commodities. Therefore, on a highly uncertain Friday, traders can give priority to copper. 

Technical Analysis of COPPER Daily and Hourly Charts 

COPPER Daily Chart Insights 

(COPPER Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Stochastic oscillator: The fast line slowed down significantly after entering the overbought area, and the fast line has not yet entered the overbought area. The market price has a probability of adjustment in the short term.

Key resistance: Copper prices started a rebound trend this week. After breaking through the downward trend line, they rose strongly to the current key resistance level of 4.2837. This resistance line was tested in October and December respectively, so strong resistance may prevent the market price from rising further.

MA signal: All three MA groups have begun to show signs of turning upward. However, since the copper price is currently too far away from the red 13-day MA, and the three MAs show signs of crossing. In theory, the market price has a strong momentum to return to the mean and fall. 

COPPER 1-hour Chart Analysis 

(COPPER H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

Stochastic oscillator: Both the fast and slow line indicators fell below the 50 median line, suggesting that short-term bearish forces are on the upper side. However, based on the fact that the trend is clearly in the adjustment stage, the market price may rise for the last period at any time. 

13MA: Copper prices have risen strongly, and the purple 13-period MA has always supported the market price. In theory, the 13-period MA is a filter for strong trends. If the market price effectively falls below the 13-period MA, the copper price will clearly enter the adjustment period. The first target is the upward trend line, which is also near the black 65-period MA. 

H2 : Pivot Indicator Insights for COPPER 

(COPPER M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 4.2625, 

Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 4.2625, first target 4.3320, second target 4.3440; 

Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 4.2625, first target 4.2440, second target 4.2260. 

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