Publicações de Splexin

Comments welcome Em Geral Feb 04, 2013 at 19:00

The first system is incredibly deceptive using Custom Analysis. Go check "All" for the dates to see what they are hiding. Negative 48.5% gain and 84% drawdown. Or even use 01/2010 as starting point. Losing system. They have nice gains December 2012-present but their balance could be just a couple dollars. Anybody can tweak their results by adjusting starting/ending dates. Hiding balances also leaves out the capital perspective.As for the other systems, 14% gain in 2 years isn't all that great.....you could almost do better just investing the S&P. And wanting drawdown less tha...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Feb 03, 2013 at 18:37

A good place to start is FPA........ http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/public/review/www.fxsalt.com

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Feb 03, 2013 at 00:21

Guys, I'd be careful about the strategies you think to be profitable....in some cases it is actually a shill promoting the broker. According to the broker's site here http://eng.fxclearing.ca/ they look like they are going out of businessPersonally I only trust from NFA regulated brokers, particularly the major ones.YMMV

I have been on a winning streak and now nervous to take new positions Em Traders Iniciantes Feb 01, 2013 at 23:40

If you keep getting nervous I recommend looking up "Mark Douglas trading psychology."He has several books and videos widely available across the web. This guy basically saved my shirt when I was going through a rough period of losing confidence several years into my trading 'career'.My advice like others here is to risk less as you make more.Good luck

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Feb 01, 2013 at 18:49

Also, to put things into perspective I went through one of my inactive accounts (I have 6 that I trade with).Monthly average profit for past 2 years? 3.27%Max Drawdown? 24.7%Here's the clincher! Although my current gain is positive, it's NOT in profit. It's actually in the red about $300 😁 😝So that's why earlier I was saying using "averages" really means nothing about the profitability of a system.I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've h...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Feb 01, 2013 at 18:29

No worries SIM, I know I am right on probability. But who says I have to make $1 a month with $20 balance to be in the category of 0.64%....12 months without a losing month? Why does my balance matter? (obviously for FX Guru's test but here I'm talking about the probabilities). That's why I added that to my post.I do not think the probability is 12 months no NET loss I think it means 12 months without ANY loss. I may have phrased it wrong the first time, or maybe I'm wrong about that....I personally didn't come up with this, but someone familiar with arcsine law was discuss...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Feb 01, 2013 at 06:18

Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.Impressive yes, but still fails his "at least 5% average per month for past 2 years" test 😉Also, I could make one dollar a month and say I was profitable every month. Does this mean I am in the 0.64% or 0.21%??

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Jan 30, 2013 at 21:14

Looks pretty good. I had forgotten to mention linear regression as another plausible method.I'm currently testing an EA which was derived from optimization done in MATLAB using simple RSI (believe it or not) and price MA entry (timed to trade during certain hours) and it has annual Sharpe of about 1.90 (validation Sharpe of 3.12 on out-of-sample). I use Oanda tick data for my research. I then adjust risk according to a modified VaR formula and use very small positions (much like your EA) which allows me to have a Risk of Ruin of basically zero. I think position sizing is where a lot of tra...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Jan 30, 2013 at 20:46

Yes you can. There are lots of different statistical properties that you can exploit in Forex, more so with high-frequency trading but the average trader can still find opportunities. Examples include pair trading (if you can find mean-reverting currencies), triangular arbitrage (rare), momentum trading based on currency volatility, modeling interest rates and trading longer term, modeling price, trading certain pairs at certain times (College of William & Mary did an academic paper about that, I believe), and so on.I've been researching this stuff since last year and haven't even ...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Jan 30, 2013 at 17:18

Well, what does average monthly profit do anything to prove a strategy is sound? All you are looking for is something with returns distribution of 5% per month.......you could have something that does great one month (i.e. 90%) but the rest of the year loses. Could you suck on losing 3% per month for 11 months? The psychology will eventually get to you and you will choke. And because of that one great month you will believe in your strategy so much you will either trade more or trade bigger to the point that your losing months wipe you out. Even somebody who does have a system that reaps 5% a ...

Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account? Em Geral Jan 30, 2013 at 06:28

2 years with no losing months? Or just 2 years average profit? Most people here are just gamblers.Did you know that because of arcsine law it is literally impossible to win every month over a certain period of time (i.e. 2 years, 3 years, etc). You can win 11/12 months a year or 1/12 months a year but over time it will never be 12/12 months a year or even 6/12 a year. The probability of winning 12 months straight is 0.64%, and 5 years straight? Only 0.13%. Really puts things into perspective. You can read about it in Taleb's book and also Baz & Chacko's book.Before I joined MyFXBoo...

World-wide investr and Forexizbiz forex forums Em Geral Nov 02, 2012 at 19:51

Worldwide-Invest is down but Forexisbiz is not.You can go to www.isitdownrightnow.com to check if a site is down or it's just you.

Need a Script or EA to move/place/modify SL to BE. Em Programação Mar 18, 2012 at 06:53

Plenty of free EAs out there......is this what you're looking for?

Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible? Em Geral Mar 02, 2012 at 22:59

Oh right of course, he was showing a trader friend the same thing I see every week from people who think everyone else is stupid. 😁 If he had 20+ years experience he wouldn't be risking everything and ignoring MM, only noobs or gambling addicts do that 😉Everyone can choose to believe what they want.....but a snapshot of a line graph with numbers isn't proof. I know if I "wanted to show a friend" then I would show him all the real trades and not just that........so I call bunk on this one 😄

Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible? Em Geral Mar 02, 2012 at 22:46

Whoever posted the results should have their "friend" who supposedly generated the results connect their account to Myfxbook and get it verified. Shouldn't be a problem if it's legit right? 😉

Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible? Em Geral Mar 02, 2012 at 17:44

Uhmmmm....that hardly qualifies as proof.....LOL"Real," right.....just because they said it was real 😁Attached the image for people who don't want to register there 😉

Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible? Em Geral Mar 01, 2012 at 20:39

You're preaching to the choir on that one, bro 😁

Is what's happening in the contest even remotely possible? Em Geral Mar 01, 2012 at 19:48

This guy in Asia, you should see the trading room in his apartment, monitors cover the wall.......I don't remember his name but it took EIGHT YEARS to trade into the millions......

Contest - Splexin Em Sistemas de Trading Mar 01, 2012 at 10:47

Well, didn't end on the high-note I wanted (those blasted EUR trades 😁), but if I'm not mistaken after everyone's equity is liquidated (curious why it hasn't been done yet), I should end at 4th place....unless someone below me has a higher equity. 😁

A sad day to be an American... Em Geral Mar 01, 2012 at 10:43

Yup, this is spot-on. But although U.S. regulations are a pain the butt, sometimes they're good at keeping U.S. brokers in line as far as your money etc. It's harder for a broker in the USA to scam clients.Yes, disappointing that U.S. citizens aren't eligible for the contest, but that gives us more time to focus on real trading 😉

EURUSD	1.041	GBPUSD	1.18847	AUDUSD	0.623
USDJPY	157.17	USDCAD	1.4327	USDCHF	0.8848

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