ATFX Market Outlook 27th December 2024

ATFX Market Outlook 27th December 2024

US Stocks Surge: A Five-Day Rally Sparks Year-End Optimism

Opinion Today:

The Dow Futures ended slightly higher on Thursday, extending its five-session winning streak. However, thin trading volume and rising Treasury yields affected major tech stocks. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended the day nearly flat but slightly lower.

The dollar index rose 0.02% to 108.13, close to a two-year high of 108.54 set on Friday. The euro increased 0.17% against the dollar to 1.0422, while the dollar climbed 0.38% against the yen to 158.00, reaching a peak of 158.09, its highest since July 17.

Gold prices rose by 0.8% to $2,634.43 an ounce due to safe-haven demand amidst uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans for 2025. In contrast, oil prices fell as a stronger dollar offset hopes for additional fiscal stimulus from China.

Today's economic data is light, with the U.S. releasing trade account and retail inventory data. Investors should consider monitoring market conditions influenced by year-end adjustments.

Key Data:

21:30 US Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories NOV ** 

Key Data and Events Ahead Next Week:

Global Manufacturing PMI Final DEC 

New Year Holiday, Worldwide Market Close

US Jobless Data

EUR/USD

1.0452/1.0486 Resistance1.0375/1.0342 Support

The EUR/USD pair is at 1.0415 amid thin trading volumes. Later today, the US will release the November Goods Trade Balance. Recent data shows that initial jobless claims fell to 219,000, supporting the US dollar at 108.10. The Fed may slow rate cuts next year, while the ECB is expected to continue lowering rates, which could weaken the euro. 

GBP/USD

1.2571/1.2601 Resistance1.2473/1.2443 Support

GBP/USD continues to face significant downside pressure, which increases the likelihood of further downside momentum if it stays below this level. On the downside, the next support level for GBP/USD is around 1.2473/1.2443. On the upside, if the pair can recover to the 1.2600 mark, it could be a recovery. This level will be crucial to watch for any potential upside momentum. Before it breaks out the 1.26 mark, investors should consider 1.2571/1.2601 resistance. 

USD/JPY

158.15/158.38 Resistance157.40/157.17 Support

The USD/JPY pair is below 157.75 as the Japanese Yen strengthens after Tokyo CPI inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in December, potentially leading to a BoJ interest rate hike. BoJ Governor Ueda expects sustainable inflation near 2%. Meanwhile, the Fed's outlook for fewer rate cuts may bolster the dollar. If it fails to break out of the 158 mark, it could test 157.40/157.17. However, if it holds above the 158 mark, it would test 158.15/158.38 resistance. 

USD/CAD

1.4448/1.4468 Resistance1.4385/1.4365 Support

The USD/CAD pair is steady at around 1.4400, the US dollar index remains above 108.00, and the crude price has bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is weak due to the Bank of Canada's recent 175 basis point cuts and a cautious easing stance. If the Canadian dollar continues under pressure, the USDCAD pair will test the resistance of 1.4448/1.4468. 

U.S Crude Oil Futures (February)

69.83/70.16 Resistance69.02/68.75 Support

Oil prices were stable on Friday in the Asia trading session but poised for a weekly gain, with Brent at $73.25 and WTI at $69.60. The World Bank raised China's growth forecast, and the country plans to issue 3 trillion yuan in bonds for economic stimulus. U.S. crude stocks reportedly fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, and the official EIA report, expected later Friday, will show further inventory declines. If the inventory declines over the market expectation, the crude price will be bullish. 

Spot Gold

2654/2671 Resistance2616/2599 SupportSpot Silver30.00/30.14 Resistance29.58/29.44 Support

Gold prices traded above $2,630 during Asian hours on Friday, showing a consolidation phase. With the 14-day relative strength index below 50, sentiment remains neutral; however, a rise above 50 could attract buyers. If gold surpasses $2,654 or $2,671, it may climb higher. Conversely, a drop below these levels could lead to selling pressure, targeting monthly lows of $2,616 or $2,599.

US30

43750/44003 Resistance42928/42679 Support

The Dow Jones Index saw a boost in five-day gains, but Wall Street remained muted as higher treasury yields pressured the market on Thursday. Despite this, Dow futures rose 0.1% to 43,325.80 points, driven by year-end optimism. Investors should monitor market conditions influenced by year-end adjustments.

NAS100

21960/22140 Resistance21675/21532 Support

Rising US bond yields make bonds more attractive than tech stocks, causing investors to shift their focus. Higher yields raise borrowing costs, limiting innovation and profit margins. Most major tech stocks closed lower, with Apple Inc. slightly up after a Wedbush upgrade. Tesla fell 1.8%, NVIDIA dropped 0.2%, and Alphabet and Arm Holdings declined. Investors should consider monitoring market conditions influenced by year-end adjustments.

BTC (Bitcoin)

97040/98137 Resistance94378/93506 Support

Bitcoin dropped 2.6% to $95,729.50 on Thursday, reversing two days of gains. Concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and interest rate uncertainties dampened trader momentum. If it continuously bears momentum during the weekend, the BTC will test a lower level to $94K or $93K support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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