ATFX Market Outlook 2nd January 2025

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ATFX Market Outlook 2nd January 2025

U.S. Stock Index Futures Dip Amid Mixed Market Sentiment

Opinion Today:

Global markets were closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day. The US dollar index ended 2024 at a two-year high, up 8%, the best performance in nearly a decade. Spot gold rose more than 27%, its most significant annual increase since 2010. In contrast, international oil prices dropped about 3% for the second consecutive year.

The three major US stock indexes grew for the second year in a row, with the Dow Jones up 12.9%, the S&P 500 up 23.3%, and the Nasdaq up 28.6%. Gold prices surged, hitting $2633 during the Asia trading session on Thursday, reflecting increased demand amid global risks and uncertainties related to the Trump administration. 

Some countries are still on holiday on the first trading day of the year, and the market focuses on U.S. data. The initial jobless claims will be released today, indicating whether the job market remains strong despite the slowdown. Investors from various countries should consider the final Manufacturing PMI for December.

Key Data:

New Zealand, Japan, and Switzerland Holiday

09:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI DEC ** 

16:55 EU Germany Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

17:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

17:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final DEC ** 

Tomorrow

Japan Holiday

00:00 US Crude Inventories ** 

16:55 EU Germany Unemployment Rate DEC ** 

23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI DEC *** 

EUR/USD

1.0372/1.0386 Resistance

1.0328/1.0313 Support 

The euro has continued its downward trend against the US dollar, remaining weak since December 18. It is currently trying to hold the support of previous lows. A rebound could lead it to target above 1.0360, but if the downward trend persists, the initial support level to watch is 1.0333, the low from November.

GBP/USD

1.2540/1.2556 Resistance 

1.2472/1.2457 Support 

After three days of decline, the GBP/USD pair was stable this morning. It is at the lower end of its two-week trading range, with initial support around 1.2509 and the December low at 1.2475. A drop below 1.2500 would signal weakness, while resistance is near the 10-day moving average at 1.2536.

USD/JPY

157.77/158.07 Resistance

157.05/156.81 Support 

The USD/JPY declined and rebounded in the last trading session, closing within the high range of the past two weeks. This indicates stable technical signals. This morning, it rose further with support from the 10-day moving average, and attention is now on whether it will reach the range high of approximately 158.07.

USD/CAD

1.4405/1.4422 Resistance

1.4350/1.4332 Support

The USD/CAD pair ended the last trading day of the previous year with a slight increase, remaining within a high range since late December. This morning, it bounced back from the bottom of that range and tested above the 10-day moving average. If it can sustain this momentum, it may break through the resistance at the 1.4400 mark.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Feb)

72.53/72.87 Resistance 

71.39/70.94 Support

Crude prices ended 2024 with a steady upward trend despite an annual decline. Today's increase in the Asia trading session reflects market optimism for the New Year. Prices have reached their highest since November 7, with $72.84 as a key resistance level. Maintaining a price above $71 is essential for continued bullish momentum.

Spot Gold

2643/2652 Resistance

2623/2614 Support

Spot Silver

29.50/29.74 Resistance

28.96/28.73 Support 

Gold ended the last trading day of last year with a high close and continued its upward rebound this morning. It can test the 20-day moving average at $2,638 and the primary resistance from the previous week. We will see if it can make a key breakthrough then. Otherwise, it may return to the 10-day moving average of $2,615 to test support.

US30

42705/42952 Resistance 

42130/41888 Support 

U.S. stock index futures slightly declined Wednesday evening, indicating a cautious market outlook as 2025 approaches. Although 2024 saw gains from AI advancements and lower interest rates, momentum has slowed, and the absence of a "Santa Rally" raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's policies and the upcoming Trump administration. The bear trend might continue this week, but today’s release of initial jobless claims could influence investor sentiment and impact the stock market.

NAS100

21224/21439 Resistance

20792/20580 Support 

The large-cap technology giants, which had performed well all year, dropped on the last trading day. However, optimism for the New Year suggests the Nasdaq may rebound. With a low of around 20,914 in late December, there’s potential for recovery, but bulls need to reclaim the 21,200 mark to ease downward pressure.

BTC (Bitcoin)

96671/97684 Resistance,

93389/92358 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) missed the Santa rally but started recovering in early 2025. It is above the 10 and 20 moving averages on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential rebound. If it holds support at $93,389 and $92,358, it may test resistance at $96,671 or $97,684.

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