ATFX Market Outlook 27th February 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 27th February 2025 

US Dollar Bounces Back: Eyes on GDP and PCE Data Tonight!

[Markets highlight]

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would take effect on April 2, delaying the original deadline and raising hopes for further postponement. U.S. stocks closed mostly flat, with the Dow down 0.43%, while Nvidia's strong quarterly earnings boosted the Nasdaq, which rose 0.26%.

Despite weak economic data, the U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly, increasing by 0.21% to 106.46. The euro fell to 1.0486 against the dollar, while the pound rose to 1.2677. Gold prices remained stable, with spot gold up 0.1% at $2,917.59 an ounce, as investors awaited U.S. inflation data. Oil prices dropped to a two-month low due to rising U.S. refined product inventories and ongoing geopolitical concerns.

The US is set to release the revised GDP for Q4, with the initial report showing a 2.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, down from 3.1% in Q3. The revised value is expected to remain unchanged. The annual GDP growth rate of 2024 is projected at 2.8%, indicating robust overall economic growth despite sluggishness. Additionally, watch for Core PCE and initial jobless claims, which could rise above 220,000, up from the previous 219,000.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

18:00 EU Economic Sentiment & Consumer Confidence FEB ** 

20:30 ECB Minutes *** 

21:30 US GDP & PCE Prices 2nd Est Q4 *** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

Tomorrow

07:50 JP Industrial Production JAN ** 

16:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate FEB ** 

21:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel FEB *** 

21:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY JAN *** 

EURUSD

1.0515/1.0529 Resistance

1.0457/1.0444 Support

The Euro faced resistance at 1.0529 against the US dollar and closed lower, with momentum slowing due to a US dollar rebound. It's testing support at the 10-day moving average; a drop below 1.0450 may occur if it fails. Watch for hints of interest rate cuts in the ECB meeting minutes today.

GBPUSD

1.2713/1.2738 Resistance

1.2602/1.2576 Support

The sterling held onto gains against the US dollar despite a rebound in the dollar, marking a closing high not seen in over two months, with an intraday peak of 1.2716. Breaking the 1.2700 mark remains crucial for expanding the recent upward trend.

USDJPY

150.00/150.46 Resistance

148.06/147.61 Support

USD/JPY remained at its lowest level since November, closing with little change despite a slight rise in the US dollar. It's currently near the 149 mark, with continued consolidation in the low range. Initial support is around 148.57, and if it breaks 148.57 support, it may test 148.06/147.61 support. 

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

69.42/69.78 Resistance

68.27/67.91 Support

Crude oil prices fell for nearly two months due to an unexpected rise in U.S. refined oil inventories and ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, momentum slowed, and it remains to be seen if support near $68 can provide room for a potential recovery.

Spot Gold

2934/2945 Resistance

2899/2888 Support

Spot Silver

32.31/32.57 Resistance

31.55/31.23 Support

Gold remained volatile on Wednesday, briefly falling below $2,900 before closing slightly higher. The rise of the US dollar restricted its movement, and it was rejected at the 10-day moving average, with an intraday low at the 20-day moving average. Gold is expected to trade within this range as it awaits tomorrow's guidance from the US PCE price index.

Dow Futures

43806/44042 Resistance

43044/42813 Support

As U.S. stock market sentiment rebounded, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged behind the other major indexes. After testing a three-day high, it faced resistance near 43,850 and declined to its lowest level since January 17. It has remained within the main range since last Friday, and we are awaiting directional guidance from tomorrow's U.S. PCE price index.

NAS100

21448/21595 Resistance

20973/20829 Support

On Wednesday, the stock market ended a four-day losing streak, boosted by Nvidia's strong earnings. However, it hasn't yet broken free from lows since mid-January. Key resistance is at 21,400, while support is at 21,000.

BTC

87322/88972 Resistance

82198/80571 Support

Bitcoin dropped to $84K, its lowest in over three months, due to renewed trade tensions and concerns from a major crypto exchange. The decline followed President Trump's tariff threats on Canada and Mexico, compounded by weak consumer sentiment indicating a potential U.S. economic slowdown. If the bear momentum continues, BTC will remain downward and test the lower support levels of $82,198 and $80,571. 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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