Príspevky TendencyForex - stránka 4

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:14

US yields collapsed in Asia, with all tenors seeing 5-6bps declines. This came after focus on the US 2s10s, which briefly inverted in the NY session for the first time since 2019 after the repo blowout and prior to that

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:14

Oil prices recovered considerably after the initial crash lower towards the European close. Gold pared all losses yesterday to trade around the 1925 handle.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:13

Equities continued their rally in NY, and Asia saw major indices flat as they held onto their gains. Kospi and HSI were up 0.3% and 1.15% respectively, while Nikkei saw a decline of 1.43% as Japanese markets were roiled by BoJ operations.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:12

EMFX gained as well, with USDAsia down considerably, as Asian markets open to a weaker dollar. KRW led the pack at +0.95%, THB came in at +0.85% and TWD saw an increase of +0.66%.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:12

DXY saw a brief rally post the European close, although the trend downwards continued in Asia. G10 FX saw NZD, CHF and EUR buoyed significantly on a weaker dollar and better risk sentiment. The highlight in FX, however, was the outperformance of JPY (+1%). We elaborate more in the next section.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:11

Looking ahead, we will keep a close eye on potential Russia-Ukraine headlines today. USD will see more Fedspeak today, although we do not expect this to move markets. SEK sees an economic tendency survey, while EUR will eye economic confidence data as well as German CPI. GBP will listen in to BoE’s Broadbent’s speech. Latam sees inflation and unemployment prints from BRL and MXN respectively. THB will see a rate decision in which Citi Economics expects no change at 0.50%

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 07:11

Markets continued to digest positive Russia-Ukraine headlines yesterday, even as US officials expressed some skepticism. Risk appetite in Asia remained positive, with Equities retaining gains seen overnight. UST saw a brief inversion in US 2s10s in the NY session, while yields collapsed in Asian trading. DXY continued its dip in Asia, although JPY stole the limelight yet again as it gained as much as 1%. The gain came amid the UST rally and a Nikkei report which prompted speculation about potential verbal intervention. JGB futures also soared close to the Europe open as the BoJ added yet anoth...

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 02:38

It is hard to say exactly what the FX market is prepared for, with regards to the April 2022 MPS.In our view, some market participants will probably be disappointed if there is no upwardre-centring, and the SGD NEER may thus fall in the near term – not unlike what happenedafter Finance Minister announced on 18 February that the GST hike will be delayed andstaggered (therefore reducing the likelihood of an imminent re-centring, compared with ascenario whereby the GST hike will be implemented in July 2022). That being said, if a slopechange was announced in conjunction with a wider band, w...

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 02:36

FX strategyWe like the SGD, since we believe the MAS will not be done with policy tightening,even if it does what we expect it to do in April 2022 (i.e. re-centre higher) and in anycase, it can also crawl higher along the upper-bound of the positively sloped band.We suggest considering a bespoke SGD basket (comprising the RMB, AUD,TWD, USD and GBP). Our USD-SGD forecast for end-2022 is 1.32. We also expectFX forward points to fall further – for example, it will probably not be unreasonable toexpect 12m points to head towards -200 eventually, based on a 1.5% slope.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 02:35

Model updateWe have refreshed our estimation of the SGD NEER index. Our previous index over-estimated the MAS’s index by around 20bp in recent months.But tracking error cannot entirely explain the overshooting of our SGD NEERindex from the top-bound of the band that occurred a few times in the second halfof March. Thus, we have also revised one of our assumptions for the policy bandparameters. We now believe the MAS raised the slope by 1ppt on 25 January2022 (previous assumption: 0.5ppt), therefore bringing the current slope to 1.5%(previous assumption: 1% slope).We estimate that the SGD...

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 02:34

We recalibrated our SGD NEER model – we updated the weights and revised the slope assumption for January 2022With the slope now at 1.5% by our new estimates, HSBC thinks the MAS will re-centre the policy band higher in AprilWe like the SGD and think FX forward points can fall further

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 30, 2022 at 02:31

The ZAR’s recent appreciation is justified and likely to extendPositive terms of trade dynamics, relatively low inflation with hawkish SARB making room for a stronger ZARWe now see USD-ZAR ending the year at 13.7

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:43

EUR: France Consumer Confidence at 07:45 BST for March. Citi Economics expects confidence to remain relatively unchanged at 95 (vs 98 prior), though risk is of a lower print, given the geopolitical conflict. This would follow last week’s weaker confidence surveys on the back of the Russia/Ukraine conflict as well as high energy prices.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:42

USD: Fedspeak meets consumer confidence:– Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 15:00 BST for March. Citi Economics expects the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to rise modestly to 110.9 in March, in contrast to another decline in the University of Michigan sentiment index. The Conference Board’s measure of confidence focuses much more on assessments of employment conditions, which have been consistently strong. The strength of the labor market is a key factor keeping the Fed less concerned about much weaker activity despite quickly rising interest rates.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:41

BoJ saw a take-up of JPY 242.6bn from investors, much higher than the JPY 67.5bn from yesterday’s second operation. We remind that BoJ has begun its three day plan for unlimited bond purchases of some notes on Tuesday morning. This was followed by a second offer alter In the day. JGB 10 year yield remained at around 0.248%.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:40

Equities held onto their gains seen in the NY session, while oil prices held steady after a before the WSJ report late in the NY session helped to stabilize prices – citing Kpler data, it reports that exports of Russian oil by sea fell to the lowest level in nearly eight months last week. Both supply and demand concerns are likely to continue weighing on markets.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:39

The Asian session on Tuesday saw rates markets continue to be in focus. US 2y yields popped higher by 8bps, with the rest of the curve seeing modest 2-3bps increases in yields. USD saw an early bid which gave way shortly, as seen by a spike in DXY. DXY is slightly in the red on the day, with G10 currencies a tad in the green against the dollar.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:39

Markets saw slightly different price action in the NY and Asian session, although the broad trend remained in place. The NY session post European close saw a retracement of earlier moves, dictated by positioning and liquidity, rather than new information.

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:38

Looking ahead, two days of talks with Russia in Istanbul are set to start today. USD will see Fedspeak from Harker, who is expected to be hawkish, after consumer confidence data. EUR also sees consumer confidence data. EM markets will look forward to ARS economic activity data and a rate decision from CLP, in which Citi Economics expects a +175bps hike to 7.25%

Razor EA v Obchodné systémy Mar 29, 2022 at 07:38

Rates markets continued to be in focus post the European close, as flattening pressures resumed. UST 2y yields popped 8bps higher in Asia, with the rest of the curve up 2-3bps. Equity markets held onto their gains seen post European close, while oil markets held steady following yesterday's declines. DXY saw a slight decline after an initial spike in Asia, with G10 currencies mostly in the green against the dollar. JPY gained, paring some of yesterday’s losses, as BoJ bond purchase operations saw better takeup. In the EM markets, KRW rallied on the back of corporate unloading of USD,...

EURUSD	1.04336	GBPUSD	1.25738	AUDUSD	0.62515
USDJPY	156.528	USDCAD	1.43616	USDCHF	0.89312

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