EBC Markets Briefing | Aussie dollar at stake in Trump’s inauguration

The Australian dollar steadied ahead of Trump's inauguration, as Biden's efforts to constrain China accelerate decoupling.

The Australian dollar steadied on Monday before Trump’s inauguration. Biden’s administration made a global push to constrain China in the past four years and decoupling will only accelerate going forward.

Option trading volume on the Australian dollar versus the greenback on Wednesday surged to the highest in three weeks with increasing bears, according to data from The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

Despite the threat of it breaching the 2022 low, the premium to hedge the currency’s downside over the next three months, compared to its upside, remains well below levels from August or October.

Australia’s consumer confidence edged down in January on concerns about the broader economy, including a weaker currency and uncertainty about the timing of interest-rate cuts.

But employment sped past forecasts in December although the jobless rate ticked higher as many more people went looking for work. Slowing wage growth suggests the labour market is not a source of inflationary pressures.

Swaps still imply a 68% probability that the RBA, which has held its policy steady for a year, will cut rates on 18 February, following the quarterly inflation report and another reading on retail sales.

Commonwealth Bank strategist said the Aussie dollar could test resistance at $0.6322 if Trump's policy changes fall short of market expectations. We see more pains ahead as the downtrend remains intact.

EBC Financial Risk Management Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Financial News or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Regulácia: FCA (UK), ASIC (Australia), CIMA (Cayman Islands)
read more
Risk appetite improves on easing tariff anxiety

Risk appetite improves on easing tariff anxiety

Dollar rebounds as China considers tariff exemptions - But recession concerns remain, evident by Fed rate cut bets - Tokyo CPI inflation accelerates, boosting BoJ hike bets - Wall Street rallies on easing trade tensions, tech boost
XM Group | Pred 23 h 41 min
ATFX Market Outlook 25th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th April 2025

U.S. initial jobless claims rose only slightly last week, suggesting that the labour market remains resilient despite the uncertainty caused by chaotic trade policies. Federal Reserve officials stated in interviews that they see no need to adjust monetary policy and are seeking more information on how President Trump’s trade tariffs might affect the broader economy.
ATFX | Pred 1 dňom