scwizard Diskussion

Stocks and the US Dollar are flat or slightly lower for the month. Everyone is waiting on November when we have a important FOMC meeting, midterm elections and Black Friday. Huge uncertainty will cause people to make large bets in both directions, which will cancel each other out for the most part.

There won't be a crash this October. October crashes happen when people are certain that November's numbers will be super ugly and that we're fucked. There's huge uncertainty right now, but both sides are looking for huge moves. This will drive the VIX up a ton for sure.

Long term recommendations:
VXX: LONG.
Gold: Long.
Yen: Long after they intervene again.
Stocks: Flat.
Dollar: Flat.
Euro: Flat.
TYO: Long (short treasuries).

I'd like to thank #forex at irc.ircforex.com

Someone Australian mentioned in the channel that there was a chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia wouldn't raise interest rates like expected. This lead to me placing limit orders for a breakout around the news event which lead to profit!

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

POMO scheduled for tomorrow and the day after. Look for a weaker dollar overall, especially during New York only hours (1PM to 5PM).

You may be wondering what's up with a 5$ AU trade I lost recently. Well I was surprised to when I woke up and I found myself down five dollars. I had a limit order set that I forgot to cancel.

Everyone makes mistakes.

I'm short USD/SEK now, the plan is to close the trade after Wednesday's New York market closes. Of course I'm regretting not going long gold instead (or perhaps as well).

Dollar being driven down, but it has no effect on markets. This is big!

So my tea leaves said that gold would have a technical pullback, so I short it before my 5:20 class.

Two hours later, I get home and go to #forex and the first thing I see is people saying 'I wouldn't be surprised if gold hit 9000 today.'

I check my position panicked and... it's in profit.

My face: -.-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/japan-won-t-join-a-currency-devaluation-race-vice-finance-minister-says.html

Short UJ bitchez

People are saying there are rumors of intervention on UJ at 82.10. Rumors are wrong 110% of the time. My price target on UJ is below 80.00.

On an unrelated note, I'm waking up early tomorrow (today) for NFP. it'll be fun :)
Also a dead goose formation is taking shape on XAU/USD. Be careful!

I should scalp EU more. Oanda's crazy low spreads mean that I'm not even losing very much money when I do so, and it's lots of fun.

I really gotta nap before NFP...

Couldn't trade NFP due to technical difficulties. Which is good because it was a wierd one and I would have lost a lot of money.

Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Oats all lock limit up in the futures. I still believe that there won't be a crash this October, but I'm very scared here.

S&P500 correction/crash November 3rd?

The equity markets are assuming right now that Ben Bernanke will 'provide additional accommodation' and lift the stock market up, and that's been priced into the market a great degree.

HOWEVER since he made that statement, the numerous negative potential consequences of QE2 have shown themselves. The first is a 'currency war.' QE2 could stat off a very dangerous round of competitive currency devaluation in the foreign exchange markets. The second is that the price of food is up 75% since the beginning of September. QE2 would drive the price up even higher. Food stamps are not adjusted for inflation, and if Obama's voter base concludes that Ben Bernanke is responsible for their suffering then Ben could potentially lose his job. The third is decorrelation. As we've recently seen, the S&P500 doesn't always need to move precisely inverse to the US dollar index. Now in a attempt to keep some sort of sane relation to earnings in tact, the two disconnect completely, then QE2 wouldn't have had its intended consequence.

Now these scenarios are not even mutually exclusive, so I conclude that the decision to enact QE2 isn't a straightforward one.

A potential scenario, is that on November 3rd FOMC announces that due to various circumstances, they've decided to take a more measured approach. The result of such an announcement is that the stock market would correct the QE2 assumption that has been priced in. Lets say the stock market instantly crashes, what would happen. The main stream media would likely blame it on Republicans winning elections. Therefore the political consequences of such a move wouldn't be very serious.

From a technical standpoint, I'm thinking the correction would be off of the fib level you can see here: <a href='https://www.myfxbook.com/files/scwizard/technicalcrash.PNG' target='_blank'><img src='https://www.myfxbook.com/files/scwizard/technicalcrash.PNG'/></a>

Crazy day today...

Long AU on fundamentals.
Go grocery shopping.
Close AU long, nice profit.
EVERYONE IS ON VACATION.
Low volume market.
Lose a bit of money to bullshit low volume market.
Get annoyed.
Can't sleep.
Lose A LOT of money to gambling.
Sleep deprivation leads to creativity.
Creativity leads to me figuring out how to scalp bullshit low volume market.
SCALP EU LIKE CRAZY.
WIN LIKE EIGHT TRADES IN A ROW.
Tell #forex about what happened.
#forex is like 'holy shit I love scalping!'
More EU scalping.
Now I end today in profit.

How to scalp bullshit low volume market:
1. Confirm bullshit low volume. Is everyone on vacation? Are there no news events or market openings or closing nearby?
2. Zoom in EU to the 1 minute chart.
3. Your 100ema is pretty much a flat line, because the volume is so stupidly fucking low.
4. If the price runs away from the 100ema to the upside, short the fucker. If it goes up even more, just short it again.
5. When the price kisses the 100ema close your open positions.
6. If the price runs away from the 100ema to the downside, long the fucker. If it goes down even more, just long it again.
7. When the price kisses the 100ema close your open positions.

WARNING: THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS AND IF A REAL BREAKOUT HAPPENS YOU WILL INSTANTLY ERASE YOUR LAST TWENTY WINNING TRADES

Don't you dare attempt this if your broker is ripping you off by making your EU spreads 3 pips or some nonsense.

Before I go to bed I just wanted to point out a few things.
Firstly, even though my story had a happy ending it's important to realize that what happened shows that I still can let my emotions get the better of me, which is bad.
Secondly, on myfxbook it says that I had a down day. This is completely false, you see myfxbook and myself have different concepts of when a day begins and when one ends. The day begins when I wake up and ends when I go to sleep you see. ALL HOURLY CANDLES MUST BE GREEN.
Thirdly, it's kind of scary how much influence a kid with a 50$ account who's up 50% can have on #forex. Guys I am not a pro, there are pros in the channel and I am not one of them.

Scalping doesn't work in medium low volume markets, breakouts can still happen pretty randomly.
Trading breakouts doesn't work in medium low volume markets, they don't go far enough.
Trading news doesn't work in medium low volume markets, there isn't any news to trade.

I'm going to make a forecasting trade and sit on my hands.

So many AU pips *droll*

If I closed right now I could erase the past eight days of losses. But it's not enough... I WANT MORE!

<i>Goldman Tells Clients To Buy COMEX Gold At $1,364.2, Raises 12 Month Gold Forecast From $1,365 To $1,650, Silver To $27.60</i>
With this we can confirm that gold will have a small correction. If you buy COMEX futures, at max gearing because you're a weak hand, what is your leverage? It's 12:1. At that leverage, what sort of move is needed to clean your account?

It turns out the answer is EXACTLY a move down to the 1250$ level, Goldman is being super fucking obvious here, it makes me sick.

Momentum will probably take us past that level into the 1248$ level, which will be the new low.

<i>any decisions would depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook</i>
THIS FED PHRASE IS KEY

One way to make money in the financial markets is to think 'I am Goldman Sachs, how is it that I go about taking as much money from retail investors/traders as possible?'

It's important to realize. Almost EVERY <u>scheduled</u> 'news event' such as the release of the unemployment numbers is planned in advance and the results are known in advance. What the numbers will be, what direction they will move the market in and so on and so forth.

Through this sort of analysis I thought for a bit that I was able to devise the plans the banks have for the tape. However it turns out I was thinking too simply.

What just happened is that someone just BRIBED a newscaster on CNBC to say that the Fed minutes revealed that QE2 would be six trillion dollars of stimulus. This isn't spin, it's a lie made out of whole cloth. Now it's one thing to manipulate CNBC into spinning the hell out of something, for instance talking about QE2 as if it's a done deal. But who would bribe someone into telling an <b>obvious</b> lie?

The only institution that would do it is a bank, but their target isn't retail. If their target was retail they wouldn't have made an obvious lie like that, they would continue what they're doing, having the main stream media speak as though QE2 is a done deal. This can only mean one thing, is a move a bank made targeting another bank. When shit gets serious, the banks start to go after each other.

There can only be one reason for this, Foreclosuregate.

The new forecast is in.

Despite banker fears, foreclosuregate will be contained. The Democratic assault on the banks is pre election grandstanding, after the November 3rd elections things will suddenly stall. Especially so if the banks create a diversion.

The next known unknown after this is the pension crisis.