Brent crude oil rebounds to 81.05 USD amid OPEC+ agreements

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to $81.05 per barrel this Monday, stabilizing after recent selling pressure. The market's focus now turns to the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting held over the weekend, where members agreed to extend collective production cuts until the end of 2024.

The agreed plan includes a voluntary reduction of 3.66 million barrels per day, set to expire at the end of 2024. Additionally, OPEC+ committed to a 2.2 million barrels per day cut for the third quarter of this year. Furthermore, eight OPEC+ countries announced plans to gradually implement additional cuts totalling 2.2 million barrels per day from October 2024 to September 2025.

Despite these cuts, oil prices dropped nearly 6% in May, driven by uncertainties regarding demand and concerns over potential high interest rates maintained by the US Federal Reserve. These rates could slow economic growth and dampen commodity interest, impacting the energy sector.

Technical analysis of brent crude oil

On the H4 chart, Brent is currently forming a consolidation range around the $81.50 level. There is potential for this range to extend downward to $79.79. If this level is reached, a rebound to $81.10 (testing from below) might follow, with possibilities of further downward movement. The correction could extend to $78.00 before a new growth wave towards $85.00 might begin. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, Brent has completed a downward structure to $81.10, with a consolidation range forming around this level. A downward breakout could lead to a decline to $79.79. Following this, a corrective move to $81.10 could occur. Conversely, an upward exit from the range might trigger a rise to $82.50. This setup is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line at 50 and trending down towards 20.

Market outlook

As Brent crude navigates through the effects of OPEC+ production cuts and global economic uncertainties, investors should closely monitor further developments in commodity demand and central bank policies. The technical setup suggests volatility with potential downward and upward movements, making it crucial for traders to watch for breakouts from established consolidation ranges.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.