ATFX Market Outlook 7th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 7th March 2025 

Wall Street Dips as Gold Prices Pause Ahead of Key US Non-Farm Payrolls!

[Markets highlight]

Wall Street faced sharp declines, with the Dow down 0.99%, S&P 500 falling 1.78%, and Nasdaq dropping 2.61% amid escalating trade war concerns. Despite a 21,000 drop in initial jobless claims, investors remained cautious.

The U.S. dollar weakened, while the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar gained from tariff exemptions. Gold prices fell 0.3% to $2,909.99 an ounce due to rising Treasury yields and profit-taking. Oil steadied below $70 a barrel as attention turned to the upcoming non-farm payroll report for insights into Federal Reserve policy. 

The U.S. will release the February non-farm payrolls report tonight, expecting a job increase 159,000. The unemployment rate is steady at 4%, and average hourly wage YoY growth is 4.1%. This report is crucial for investors evaluating recent economic data and could impact on perceptions of when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, influencing market sentiment.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

18:00 EU GDP 3rd Est Q4 ** 

21:30 US Non Farm Payrolls FEB *** 

21:30 CA Unemployment Rate FEB ** 

Key Data and Events to Monitor Next Week:

**Daylight Saving Time in the US Starts and Continues Until 2 November**

OPEC Monthly Report, US CPI, BoC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference on Wednesday

IEA Monthly Report and US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI on Thursday

GERMANY CPI Final and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel on Friday

EURUSD

1.0857/1.0888 Resistance

1.0733/1.0695 Support

Yesterday, the European Central Bank reduced interest rates to 2.5%, signalling potential further easing. The euro fluctuated, reaching its highest point since November, yet it could not maintain levels above 1.0850, retreating due to profit-taking. Traders are now concentrating on tonight's US non-farm payroll report to ascertain whether the euro can sustain this week's strength or experience adjustments below 1.0800.

GBPUSD

1.2930/1.2986 Resistance

1.2817/1.2762 Support

Yesterday, the sterling fell against the US dollar after hitting a four-month high. It faced resistance at 1.2924 before declining, likely as the market took profits ahead of US jobs data. The pair remains in a high range, potentially reaching the upper level of 1.2930.

USDJPY

148.64/148.89 Resistance

147.27/147.04 Support

The USD/JPY pair fell sharply yesterday to a new low not seen since early October, reaching the 10-day moving average. Should the pair dip below 147.50, it will confirm a lower trading range. The key will be whether tonight's US jobs data announcement can halt the decline. 

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

67.25/67.88 Resistance

65.20/64.57 Support

Crude oil remains under pressure from the US tariff war and OPEC+ production increases, stabilising around $66 despite a slow decline. We will monitor the ongoing technical consolidation since last September and await tonight's US jobs data for potential signs of a trend reversal, with resistance above $67.

Spot Gold

2923/2937 Resistance

2880/2862 Support

Spot Silver

32.87/33.20 Resistance

32.08/31.81 Support

As the U.S. dollar declined, gold exhibited volatility, rising above $2,920 before closing lower. It tested support below the key moving average on the daily chart, raising concerns about a potential drop below $2,900. Tonight's U.S. job data may impact gold prices and potentially lead to a rebound.

Dow Futures

43049/43343 Resistance

42283/42056 Support

U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Thursday as Trump made concessions on tariff policy, failing to calm investors. The Dow Futures lost over half of the previous day's gains and remained within a low trading range. Key guidance from US jobs data tonight will determine whether it can break out of this range.

NAS100

20344/20540 Resistance

19889/19697 Support

Large technology stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, fell by over 5% overnight. The Nasdaq briefly surpassed 20,400 but closed at its lowest level since early November, just above 20,000. It is awaiting guidance from tonight's US jobs data, with the previous low of 19,889 potentially providing support.

BTC

93187/95147 Resistance

80754/78254 Support

Bitcoin peaked at $92,700 before settling at $90,800, with other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin (up 10%), Cardano, Solana, and Ethereum also gaining. This rally followed Trump's announcement of a strategic reserve for cryptocurrencies utilizing seized assets. However, Bitcoin retreated ahead of the US jobs report, trading below $89K and down to $84,600. Key support levels are around $80,754 and $78,254, while resistance is at $93,187 and $95,147.

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