ATFX Market Outlook 26th February 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 26th February 2025 

US Stocks Show Mixed Amid Declining Consumer Confidence and Tariff Concerns

[Markets highlight]

Investor sentiment remains fragile, with the US Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling to 98.3 in February, marking a third consecutive month of decline. Concerns over President Trump's tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada contribute to market unease, impacting inflation and consumer spending. Dow futures and Nasdaq hit a multi-week low, with Dow hitting 43,285 before slightly recovering. The S&P remains below 6,000.

U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, causing the dollar index to retreat 0.39% to 106.33, while the euro rose to 1.0505. As investors took profits, gold prices fell 1.2% to $2,916.59 per ounce. Oil prices declined around 2% to a two-month low amid disappointing economic news from the U.S. and Germany.

Today's market data is not much. Germany Gkf consumer confidence performance may guide the ECB rate path. Next, the U.S. reported new home sales for January, and investors are waiting to see if the data improves for the third month in a row. The primary focus is on Nvidia's earnings release after the market closes, which could significantly impact sentiment towards technology stocks and the broader U.S. stock market.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence MAR ** 

23:00 US New Home Sales JAN ** 

Tomorrow

20:30 ECB Minutes *** 

21:30 US GDP & PCE Prices 2nd Est Q4 *** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

EURUSD

1.0560/1.0573 Resistance

1.0485/1.0471 Support

ECB board member Nagel noted that if inflation reaches the 2% target this year, the ECB could still cut interest rates. Germany's increased spending optimism helped the euro, which ended two days of decline against the dollar, closing at its highest level since early December. The focus is now on the intraday high from late January, targeting around 1.0533.

GBPUSD

1.2734/1.2777 Resistance

1.2607/1.2554 Support

The sterling rebounded against the US dollar yesterday, staying within a high range supported by the 10-day moving average. To gain further momentum, it must surpass the 1.2700 mark and overcome resistance from the upward trend line established earlier this month.

USDJPY

150.00/150.46 Resistance

148.06/147.61 Support

USD/JPY declined yesterday with the U.S. dollar, reaching its lowest level since October 10 last year after failing to test the 150 mark. The previous support level faltered, indicating that bears may push the rate to around 148. However, investors should first note the last low support at 148.64.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

69.77/70.12 Resistance

68.27/67.91 Support

Weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany have raised concerns about declining energy demand, coinciding with expectations of increased oil production in several countries. As a result, crude oil prices fell over 2% overnight to a two-month low below $70, with the $67 level from last November potentially serving as crucial support.

Spot Gold

2945/2956 Resistance

2899/2888 Support

Spot Silver

32.05/32.31 Resistance

31.22/30.98 Support

Gold is recovering from a one-week low, buoyed by concerns regarding US President Trump's tariff plans. However, potential inflation worries may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, which could restrict the gold’s upside. Gold remains bullish, maintaining its position above the 100-day EMA with an RSI near 64. The all-time high of $2,956 is a crucial resistance level, while support levels are at $2,899 and $2,888.

Dow Futures

43806/44042 Resistance

43339/43044 Support

U.S. stocks remained weak overnight due to disappointing consumer confidence data, with only the Dow futures demonstrating a slight rebound after hitting its lowest point since January 16. It is consolidating within a low range, facing resistance at 43,800 and support at 43,500.

NAS100

21448/21595 Resistance

20829/20679 Support

Before Nvidia's earnings announcement, technology stocks dropped due to US economic data. The Nasdaq has fallen over 5% in the past four trading days, reaching its lowest point since January 14, just above the 21,000 mark. Nvidia's results will influence the Nasdaq's performance at today's opening.

BTC

90626/91549 Resistance

86476/85690 Support

Bitcoin fell nearly 6% on Tuesday, dropping to £86,400 after breaking through the key support of $90,000, marking its lowest point since mid-November. BTC lost almost 6% of its value for the day, while derivatives traders faced $746 million in liquidations within 24 hours. On the technical side, the price has fallen below the $92,000 support level, with the potential for further declines towards $85,000. The RSI indicates strong bearish momentum at 30. Conversely, BTC has reclaimed the $90,000 level and may test the $92,000 mark.

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