ATFX Market Outlook 23rd December 2024

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd December 2024

Year-End Showdown: Navigating Market Volatility!  

Opinion Today:

U.S. consumer spending is expected to remain steady for November, while the core PCE price index posted its smallest month-on-month increase this week. Last Friday, U.S. stocks experienced a sharp rise after two days of sluggishness amid lower-than-expected inflation data, and calming remarks from Federal Reserve officials alleviated market concerns about interest rate hikes. The Dow and S&P 500 Index recorded their largest single-day percentage gains since November 6, although the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell for the week by 1.99%, 1.78%, and 2.25%, respectively.

The dollar index fell from a two-year high but rose for the third consecutive week, closing at 107.64 after a 0.72% decline. The euro and pound increased against the dollar, rising by 0.62% and 0.56%, respectively. 

Gold prices rose slightly, supported by U.S. inflation data; however, the Fed's hawkish outlook led to a weekly decline. Spot gold increased by 1.04% to $2,620.77 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.12% to $69.46 per barrel but fell about 2.5% for the week.

As the market approaches the Christmas holiday, it has become relatively calm due to many traders stepping back. However, some investors may take profits and adjust their positions, potentially increasing volatility. Today’s focus is on the final value of the UK's third-quarter GDP, which is crucial for the Bank of England to assess whether the annual growth rate can stay above 1%. Later tonight, Canada will release its October GDP data, which is expected to support further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. The minutes from their December monetary policy meeting will also be published early Tuesday, shedding light on potential fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.

Key Data:

15:00 GB GDP QoQ Final Q3 ** 

21:30 CA GDP & PPI OCT ** 

23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence DEC *** 

Tomorrow

Christmas Eve, Germany Holiday, Market Close. Global Markets Close Earlier 

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes *** 

08:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

21:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders NOV **

23:00 US New Home Sales NOV ** 

(The Daily Commentary will be suspended for the global holidays on December 24, 25, and 26.)

EUR/USD

1.0481/1.0516 Resistance1.0376/1.0331 Support

The euro bounced back from a near one-month low against the U.S. dollar last Friday, achieving its largest gain in over two weeks. This morning, it approached the 10-day moving average resistance. It may target the 20-day moving average near 1.05 if it breaks this level. However, without strong data to support this move, it could revert below 1.04.

GBP/USD

1.2649/1.2688 Resistance1.2485/1.2446 Support

Sterling against the US dollar ended two days of decline during the last trading session, rebounding from a low not seen since May and achieving its largest increase in nearly three weeks. It was able to rise above 1.2600 to gain momentum and break through the moving average at 1.2640. Importantly, it must hold above the 1.2500 mark for support.

USD/JPY

157.31/157.90 Resistance155.51/154.95 Support

The USD/JPY pair fell from a five-month high last Friday due to a drop in the US dollar. The market profited after initially trying to reach barrier 158, pushing the exchange rate down. It still trades near the mid-November support level, and if it holds above 156.50, a rebound may occur. If it declines further, it could approach the 10-day moving average.

USD/CAD

1.4424/1.4464 Resistance1.4290/1.4249 Support

The USD/CAD pair declined last Friday, moving away from its highs. However, the 1.4335 level has provided support for two days, potentially easing downward pressure. It will be positive if it can rise above 1.4400 and maintain consolidation. Otherwise, falling below support could threaten the 10-day moving average of around 1.4290. Tonight, Canada’s GDP data will be the focus.  

U.S Crude Oil Futures (February)

70.25/70.60 Resistance69.11/68.76 Support

Crude prices, supported by a weakening US dollar and Trump’s threats to the EU about buying US oil and gas, fell over 1% last Friday but closed higher. Staying above the 20-day moving average ended a three-day losing streak. For a positive year-end outlook, prices rose above the 10-day moving average to regain momentum above the $70 mark.

Spot Gold

2637/2654 Resistance2599/2582 SupportSpot Silver30.10/30.52 Resistance29.15/28.73 Support

Last Friday, spot gold gained after the U.S. PCE data was released. The decline in the U.S. dollar allowed gold to briefly exceed $2,630, and it gained 1.01%, the largest increase in nearly two weeks. Investors should watch the key resistance at around $2,645, where two major moving averages converge. A breakthrough could signal a shift in the current pattern, while encountering resistance may test the psychological level of $2,600 again.

US30

43496/43750 Resistance42420/42098 Support

Fuelled by lower-than-expected US PCE prices, the Dow Jones Index saw its biggest one-day gain since last month's post-election surge, rising over 870 points. However, it still declined for three straight weeks. Technically, Friday's high established initial resistance at 43,200, and to maintain upward momentum, it could rise above 43,400.

NAS100

21704/21921 Resistance20796/20586 Support

Last Friday, the PCE price index lifted market sentiment, resulting in a nearly 2% increase in the Nasdaq index, rebounding from its lowest point since November. However, it could not break through the main moving average resistance, hindering its recovery. It remains uncertain if the upcoming Christmas market will support further gains.

BTC (Bitcoin)

97994/99649 Resistance90979/88875 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $95K after a correction that dropped over 5% from the crypto market. Despite bearish sentiment, signs suggest BTC may not have peaked. After reaching $108,300, the price fell due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate outlook, limiting cuts to two in 2025, which increased selling pressure from U.S. investors. The bear momentum could continue during the end-of-year profit-taking. If the price breaks out of $92K, it will test the $90K level.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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