UK Nationwide House Price Rise More Than Forecast

(RTTNews) - UK house prices increased more than expected in February as buyers brought forward their transactions ahead of stamp duty change in April, the Nationwide Building Society said on Friday.

House price grew at a pace of 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in February after a 0.1 percent gain in the previous month. Moreover, this was the sixth consecutive monthly increase and was also faster than forecast of 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, house prices growth softened to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent in January. The annual growth was expected to ease more sharply to 3.4 percent.

Nationwide's Chief Economist Robert Gardner said despite housing affordability challenges, housing market activity remained resilient in recent months. Nonetheless, transactions were 6 percent lower than the levels prevailing before the pandemic struck in 2019.

He observed that there was a gradual increase in the number of buy to let purchases involving a mortgage, over the last twelve months.

"Looking ahead, the changes to stamp duty at the start of April are likely to generate volatility in transactions in the near term, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax," Gardner said.

"This will likely lead to a jump in transactions in March, and a corresponding period of weakness in the following months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes," added Gardner.

Earlier this month, the Bank of England had lowered its key interest rate by a quarter-point to 4.50 percent, which was the lowest since June 2023.

Capital Economics economist said the BoE will cut the bank rate to 3.50 percent in early 2026, rather than the low of 4.00 percent that investors anticipate, suggesting that mortgage rates will fall to below 4.00 percent late in 2026.

Accordingly, the economist expects house prices to grow by an above-consensus 3.5 percent in the year to the fourth quarter of 2025 and 4.5 percent in the year to fourth quarter of 2026.