ATFX Market Outlook 7th February 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 7th February 2025

Gold Takes a Breather at Historic Highs: Will US Non-Farm Payrolls Spark the Next Move?

Opinion Today:

US jobless claims increased last week, and fourth-quarter labour productivity growth fell more than expected. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher on Thursday, while Dow futures declined amid volatile trading as investors awaited Amazon's earnings and the important employment report scheduled for Friday.

The dollar index rose to 107.69 ahead of the non-farm payroll release. The euro decreased by 0.19% to 1.0382, while the pound fell by 0.54% to 1.2438. Gold prices declined by 0.3% to $2,856.50 per ounce as the dollar strengthened, with traders taking profits after five consecutive record highs. Oil prices also fell after President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to boost U.S. oil production, raising concerns over increasing crude inventories.

The United States will release its January non-farm payrolls report tonight. Market forecasts predict approximately 170,000 to 180,000 new payrolls, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and average annual hourly earnings of 3.8% (down from 3.9%). These expectations indicate a stable U.S. labour market. A strong report may postpone the Fed's plans to lower interest rates and strengthen the dollar and US stock indices.

Watch the preview of ATFX US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) for January:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm7CEUGkGX4 

Key Data:

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls JAN ** *

21:30 CA Unemployment Rate JAN ** 

23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel FEB ***

Key Data and Events for the Coming Week:

No Key Data and Events on Monday and Tuesday.

EIA Monthly Report, OPEC Monthly Outlook, and US January CPI on Wednesday.

IEA Monthly Report, Germany January CPI, and US January PPI on Thursday.

US January Retail Sales on Friday.

EUR/USD

1.0468/1.0498 Resistance

1.0309/1.0272 Support 

EUR/USD closed close to 1.0400 on Thursday, with Eurozone retail sales in line with forecasts, though the monthly figures contracted. U.S. jobless claims increased to 219K, surpassing expectations. Despite early volatility, the pair finished down 0.2%, limited by resistance at the 50-day EMA around 1.0440. The pair may decline towards a lower support level if it fails to breach this resistance following the US NFP data release.

GBP/USD

1.2524/1.2556 Resistance

1.2311/1.2278 Support 

GBP/USD fell below 1.2400 following a BoE rate cut, but a hawkish stance has diminished expectations for further cuts. On the technical front, crucial support is at 1.2400, with resistance at 1.2500 and above the 1.2524/1.2556 resistance zone. Investors should consider the US job report to be released tonight; it could steer the dollar and indirectly influence sterling. 

USD/JPY

152.11/152.37 Resistance

150.72/150.46 Support

The Bank of Japan's board has supported further interest rate hikes, causing the yen to rebound against the dollar, reaching an eight-week high. The dollar has been below 152 against the yen for four days, indicating that 150 may attract short sellers. After a decline, a brief recovery is possible. Tonight’s US non-farm payroll data could influence this trend.

USD/CAD

1.4401/1.4463 Resistance

1.4199/1.4135 Support 

The USD/CAD pair showed a bearish trend yesterday, hovering near the intraday low of around 1.4300. We will focus on trading within the range of key daily moving averages and recent lows to see if tonight's US and Canadian employment reports lead to a breakout.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (March)

71.91/72.83 Resistance

69.77/68.87 Support 

Influenced by Trump's commitment to boost US oil production, international oil prices declined, barely above $70, the lowest since December. If this level holds, the decline may ease; otherwise, further downward pressure is expected. Investors should consider the guidance of the US jobs report.

Spot Gold

2886/2903 Resistance

2832/2815 Support

Spot Silver

32.52/32.64 Resistance

31.73/31.57 Support 

Gold prices paused their five-day rally as the U.S. dollar index rebounded on Thursday, remaining within a recent high range. Bulls anticipate that tonight's U.S. non-farm payrolls may provide upward momentum towards $2,900, but concerns linger that stronger-than-expected results could lead to a short-term drop below $2,850.

US30

45032/45166 Resistance

44458/44322 Support

The major U.S. stock indices closed mixed on Thursday as investors awaited the US jobs report. The Dow initially rose but declined, establishing short-term downward trend line resistance. Based on tonight's report, its performance may be guidance to test support below the 10-day moving average and test the upper resistance.

NAS100

21944/22056 Resistance

21576/21462 Support

Most large-cap tech stocks rose overnight, although Tesla and Intel declined by over 1%. The Nasdaq experienced a three-day rebound, reaching a four-day high; however, it remains below the downward trend line established in January. Tonight's US jobs report could determine whether it can break through.

BTC (Bitcoin)

100441/102548 Resistance

93586/91515 Support

Bitcoin remained stable on Thursday as U.S.-China trade tensions escalated. Tariffs stoke fears of a prolonged trade war and inflation. MicroStrategy reported its fourth consecutive quarterly loss, further dampening market sentiment; Bitcoin traded at approximately $96,000 during the Asian trading session. A bearish MACD suggests potential declines, possibly testing $93,000 and $91,000. Recovery above $100,000 could target $102,548.

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.