Euro Falls on Trade War Fears

Expert market comment made by senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: Euro Falls on Trade War Fears
FxPro | 11h 55min atrás

The single currency has been one of the losers from Trump's victory, losing 2% on Wednesday to 1.07, its lowest since July. And it's not just a story of a strong dollar, with the euro also losing around 0.7% against the Swiss franc and 0.8% against the pound.

The single currency's weakness has been attributed to fears of trade wars, which made life noticeably more difficult for Europe during Trump's last presidency. Then, as now, it could be a double whammy: immediate tariffs on European goods and increased pressure on China, reducing demand in the Middle Kingdom and squeezing German exports there.

While the short-term market reaction may seem overly impulsive, this could be far from the final leg down. EURUSD fell 15% from the start of 2018 to the lows of 2020. The euro's weakness then kept pace with the decline in German industrial production. Production has fallen since the beginning of last year, even without a trade war with the US, but opening a new front could accelerate the process.

The outlook for the EURUSD is much the same. The pair approached 1.20 in late September but has pulled back to 1.07, testing the range support of the past 12 months.

Technically, the EURUSD's failure to break below 1.0770 confirmed the market's strong bearish bias following last week's corrective pullback. According to Fibonacci's theory, the pair has downside potential in the 1.05 area, which is near the 161.8% level of the monthly decline from the September peak.

However, even earlier, in the 1.0600-1.0670 area, the euro could find strong support and retreat to the year's lows.

From a fundamental point of view, pressure on the single currency is increasing due to fears of a further narrowing of the trade surplus and the need for the ECB to stimulate the economy more actively.

At the same time, it is too early to talk about the dollar breaking parity with the euro. Only a sustained decline below 1.05 will open the way to 0.95 or even 0.85. But we have seen how tenaciously this level has been defended over the past 10 years, and it was only broken for a few months in 2022 amid a series of shocks ranging from lockdowns and logistical problems to energy prices and supply issues.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Regulamento: FCA (UK), CySEC (Cyprus), SCB (The Bahamas), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
EURUSD Stabilises as US Presidential Election Unfolds

EURUSD Stabilises as US Presidential Election Unfolds

EURUSD remains poised around 1.0878 as markets brace for the outcome of the highly anticipated US presidential election. With the world watching, the direction of the major currency pair will hinge significantly on the election results, where a victory for Donald Trump is likely to bolster the USD, potentially leading to a notable increase.
RoboForex | 1 dia atrás
Dollar Calm ahead of the U.S. Election

Dollar Calm ahead of the U.S. Election

Today’s U.S. presidential election is set to be a pivotal event, with polls indicating a tight race that could delay the final vote count and heighten market volatility. Analysts suggest that a Kamala Harris win could bring stability to the dollar, while a Trump re-election may boost its strength.
PU Prime | 1 dia atrás
Week Ahead Anticipate Volatility from U.S. Elections and FOMC Meeting

Week Ahead Anticipate Volatility from U.S. Elections and FOMC Meeting

The markets are on edge with the impending U.S. presidential election and FOMC meeting. These events are major drivers of potential volatility, especially across FX markets and interest rate-sensitive sectors, as traders and investors await critical decisions and possible shifts in economic policy. Let’s break down the anticipated impacts of each factor.
ACY Securities | 2 dias atrás
Daily Global Market Update

Daily Global Market Update

Oil prices dropped after initial gain. AUD, EUR flat, USD/JPY up slightly. Financial news: Intel replaced in Dow Jones, Canadian dollar weakens, Amazon surges. Watch US factory orders, bill auctions and note auction later.
Moneta Markets | 2 dias atrás
Dollar Pauses as Jobs Data Looms

Dollar Pauses as Jobs Data Looms

Despite strong U.S. economic data, the U.S. dollar saw a slight retreat as investors await the upcoming U.S. election and Nonfarm Payrolls report. Resilient figures, including a stable Core PCE Price Index at 2.70% and reduced Initial Jobless Claims (216K), highlight steady U.S. economic strength, which may influence future dollar trends.
PU Prime | 5 dias atrás
What Volkswagen Has to Do With The Eurozone Weakness?

What Volkswagen Has to Do With The Eurozone Weakness?

Economic data releases and political events over the coming months could drive the EUR/USD currency pair lower. A key factor is the potential outcome of the US presidential election, specifically the possibility of a victory for Donald Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress (commonly termed a “red sweep”).
ACY Securities | 6 dias atrás