ATFX Market Outlook 26th March 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 26th March 2025

Tariff Uncertainty Caps Dollar Gains, Oil Pressured by Russia-Ukraine Energy Truce

Market Highlight

U.S. consumer confidence in March fell to a four-year low, heightening concerns about a potential recession and tariffs. Despite this, U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday as investors evaluated the data and speculated on a more flexible trade policy stance from the Trump administration. Apple shares rose, while Nvidia declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03%, the S&P 500 gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.46%.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen but remained stable against the euro as uncertainty over Trump's tariff plans kept traders cautious. The dollar fell 0.58% to 149.81, retreating from a three-week high of 150.94. EUR/USD ended nearly unchanged at 1.0798, while GBP/USD rose 0.19% to 1.2946.

Gold prices climbed due to increased safe-haven demand amid inflationary concerns stemming from Trump's upcoming tariff announcement. Spot gold settled at $3,019.86 per ounce, up 0.25%. U.S. crude oil futures edged higher as a maritime and energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil.

Key Outlook

All eyes are on the U.K.'s February CPI data release on Wednesday. Markets are assessing whether inflationary pressures are rising after January's month-on-month decline—the first negative reading in six months—while the annual rate unexpectedly reached its highest level since March 2024. The public's inflation expectations have also increased, prompting the Bank of England to remain cautious in its monetary policy approach. Forecasts suggest that February CPI will rise by 0.5% MoM (previous: -0.1%), while YoY inflation is expected to ease slightly to 2.9% (previous: 3%).

Key Data and Events Today:

15:00 GB CPI & PPI FEB ***

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders FEB **

Tomorrow

20:30 US GDP Final & Core PCE Final Q4 *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.0837 / 1.0859

· Support: 1.0741 / 1.0718

EUR/USD has slowed its recent pace of declines, but still lost ground for a fifth consecutive trading day as price action continues to test below 1.0800. And the pair could be poised for a further backslide into the 20 Moving Average.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.2978 / 1.2997

· Support: 1.2900 / 1.2881

GBP/USD struggles near 1.3000 as bullish momentum fades. U.S. inflation expectations rose, while consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, raising recession fears. Moody's warned of worsening U.S. fiscal strength. UK CPI and U.S. Durable Goods Orders could drive market moves.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 150.96 / 151.28

· Support: 149.23 / 148.91

USD/JPY slipped 0.53% on Tuesday, dropping below 150.00 as the U.S. dollar weakened. A sustained break below 149.23/148.91 could reinforce a bearish trend. A recovery above 150.00 may lead to a retest of 150.96, with further upside toward the resistance near 151.28.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 69.66 / 69.94

· Support: 68.73 / 68.45

Oil prices rose as Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers and U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected. WTI hit $69.28 (+0.4%). A 4.6M barrel stock drop and Chevron's Venezuela exit deadline extension added support, while a U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine ceasefire limited gains.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3039 / 3049

· Support: 2999 / 2990

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.95 / 34.24

· Support: 33.30 / 33.01

Gold is up 0.26% as real yields slide and inflation expectations rise on trade policy worries. The uptrend in Gold remains in play, the primary moving average on the daily chart provided a foundation of support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43152 / 43543

· Support: 41960 / 41468

Dow Futures hovered near 42,500 as weak consumer confidence and rising inflation fears weighed on sentiment. Moody's warned of U.S. fiscal deterioration, adding to tariff concerns. Technical indicators suggest bulls still have room, but breaking above 42,700 remains a challenge.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20684 / 21046

· Support: 19873 / 19504

NAS100 steadied as investors awaited Trump's April 2 tariff plans and key economic data. Wall Street gained for a third day, led by tech stocks despite weak consumer confidence. Focus now shifts to durable goods, GDP, PCE inflation, and Fed speakers.

BTC

· Resistance: 90392 / 92790

· Support: 84689 / 82777

Bitcoin stayed near $88,000 as Trump's tariff stance offset Mt. Gox's $1B transfer concerns. Market stability was supported by Mt. Gox's repayment extension, Trump Media's crypto ETF plans, and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETP expansion to Europe.

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