ATFX Market Outlook 27th March 2025

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ATFX Market Outlook 27th March 2025

Trump’s 25% Auto Tariff Sparks Market Turmoil, Stocks Tumble Again

Market HighlightPresident Trump announced on Wednesday a long-anticipated 25% tariff on imported vehicles, escalating his global trade war since returning to the White House. U.S. stocks tumbled on tariff concerns, with Tesla plunging 5.6% and General Motors falling 3.1%. Investors remain uncertain about the scale of the tariffs, potential retaliation from trade partners, and the broader impact on the global economy. The Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 lost 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2%.

The U.S. dollar hit a three-week high against the euro before the tariff announcement, with EUR/USD declining for the sixth consecutive day, settling at 1.0757 (-0.32%). USD/JPY rose 0.45% to 150.59, while GBP/USD fell 0.57% to 1.2872.

Gold prices dipped overnight as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields climbed. However, concerns over Trump's new tariffs kept gold above the $3,000 per ounce , with spot gold closing at $3,019.01 (-0.03%). Oil prices rose as U.S. crude and fuel inventories declined, and worries grew over potential U.S. tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil, tightening global supply concerns.

Key OutlookLater today, the U.S. will release its final Q4 GDP data. The previous estimate showed an annualized quarterly growth rate of 2.3%, unchanged from the initial reading. While growth has slowed compared to earlier quarters, the data continues to highlight the resilience of the U.S. economy. However, Trump's latest tariff policies may weigh on future expansion, with markets broadly anticipating slower economic growth in 2025.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US GDP Final & Core PCE Final Q4 *** 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** Tomorrow07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions *** 15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence APR ** 15:00 GB GDP Final Q4 & Retail Sales FEB *** 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY FEB *** 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final MAR *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.0792 / 1.0814

· Support: 1.0689 / 1.0668

EUR/USD fell below 1.0750 amid trade war concerns, The Trump administration plans a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and copper, with potential reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Friday’s Core PCE inflation data remains the key market focus.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.2918 / 1.2937

· Support: 1.2840 / 1.2821

GBP/USD fell 0.6% as Trump’s 25% auto tariff plan stoked trade war concerns. S&P sees a 25% US recession risk. UK inflation cooled, focusing now on Friday’s GDP and Retail Sales. US Core PCE inflation, expected at 2.7% YoY, remains the key event. As GBP/USD fell back below primary moving average, bearish pressure is beginning to accumulate.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 151.30 / 151.85

· Support: 149.49 / 148.93

USD/JPY followed the broader dollar strength yesterday. However, it was once again rejected at the 151.00 level by the end of the session. In the short term, the pair may continue trading within the range of the past two sessions, with 150.00 acts as a support level.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 70.22 / 70.49

· Support: 69.02 / 68.73

Oil rose, with WTI at $69.65. U.S. plans 25% tariffs on Venezuelan crude buyers, risking supply disruptions. Analysts warn Venezuela could lose $4.9B in revenue. OPEC+ may boost output to offset lost Iranian exports, while U.S.-Russia-Ukraine deals eased some supply concerns. 

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3039 / 3048

· Support: 2999 / 2990

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.95 / 34.24

· Support: 33.30 / 33.01

Gold holds at $3,019 as the US Dollar Index rebounds to 104.55, limiting gains. Strong US Durable Goods Orders signal economic resilience, while Fed officials highlight inflation risks and delayed rate cuts. Markets now await the core PCE inflation report for further direction.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43150 / 43542

· Support: 41954 / 41461

U.S. stocks tumbled on renewed Trump tariff concerns, snapping their rally. The Dow retreated from its March 7 high, facing resistance at the short-term uptrend channel top. Key support lies near the 10-day MA (42,200), with U.S. GDP data in focus for further direction.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20331 / 20693

· Support: 19513 / 19156

The Nasdaq plunged over 2%, snapping a three-day rally and hitting a three-day low. It dipped below the 20-day MA, and failure to reclaim it could lead to a break below the 10-day MA (19,800), potentially retesting early March lows. U.S. GDP data remains a key focus.

BTC

· Resistance: 90397 / 92790

· Support: 84703 / 82795

GameStop adds BTC as a reserve asset, aligning with Trump's pro-crypto stance. Technical show bullish momentum, with a breakout above $90,000 potentially extending gains to $95,000, while failure to hold support may push BTC to $78,258.

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