ATFX Market Outlook 11th April 2025

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ATFX Market Outlook 11th April 2025

Unpredictable Tariff Turmoil Drives Gold to Record Highs!

Market HighlightU.S. consumer inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, with the core CPI rising 2.8% year-over-year, marking the smallest increase since March 2021. However, new tariffs may hinder further improvement in inflation. U.S. stocks plunged on Thursday amid growing concerns over President Trump's tariff policies. The Dow fell by 2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, and the Nasdaq slid by 4.31%.

The dollar weakened against major currencies as markets reacted to Trump's dramatic tariff reversal. USD/JPY fell by 2% to 144.795, USD/CHF plummeted by 3.6% to a 10-year low of 0.82635. EUR/USD rose nearly 2.47% to 1.1221, and GBP/USD increased by 1.13% to 1.2972.

Gold prices surged nearly 3% overnight to a record high as the dollar weakened and the U.S.-China trade war intensified, driving investors to safe-haven gold. Spot gold rose 2.98% to $3,173.92 per ounce, reaching a record high of $3,176.64. Oil prices fell by over $2 per barrel, erasing previous gains, as investors reassessed the U.S. suspension of comprehensive tariffs and refocused on the U.S.-China trade war.

Key OutlookDuring the European session, attention will focus on the UK's February GDP data, which is anticipated to indicate a modest 0.1% growth. The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January due to weaknesses in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. External trade tariffs may pressure the UK's economic confidence unless the latest data shows a return to growth. The U.S. March PPI data will be released in the evening, typically aligning with CPI changes and supplementing this week's inflation data.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB GDP & Industrial Production FEB ** 

14:00 EU Germany CPI YoY MAR *** 

20:30 US Core PPI MAR *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR ***  

Key Data and Events Coming Next Week:

OPEC Monthly Report on Monday

RBA Meeting Minutes, IEA Monthly Report, CA CPI on Tuesday  

API Crude Oil Stock Exchange, China State Council Information Office Press Conference, GB CPI & PPI, EU CPI Final, US Retail Sales, BoC Interest Rate & Press Conference on Wednesday   

ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, US Initial Job Claims on Thursday  

Major Countries' Holiday and Japan CPI on Friday

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1372 / 1.1410

· Support: 1.1179 / 1.1149

As the U.S. dollar weakens, the market sees the European Central Bank as having a more precise rate cut to mitigate tariff impacts. The euro is gaining traction among non-U.S. currencies, marking its most significant single-day gain against the dollar since 2022. It strengthened during intraday trading, reaching its highest level since February 2022. Key resistance levels to watch are between 1.1400 and the previous high of 1.1430.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3134 / 1.3208

· Support: 1.2899 / 1.2826

The U.S. CPI in March was lower than expected at 2.8%, and today's consumer sentiment release is anticipated to drop to 54.5. GBP/USD rose due to reduced tariff tensions and weaker dollar demand, reaching 1.3000. The pair rebounded above the 200-day EMA, testing resistance near 1.3100 if the GBP continues to rise.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.61 / 145.11

· Support: 142.30 / 141.81

USD/JPY fell to 143.55 due to a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish stance supports the yen, strengthening it. Also, traders anticipate Fed rate cuts in June, prompting the USD/JPY to break below key support at 144.30. The 10- and 20-period SMAs indicate a bearish trend. A rebound may meet resistance, presenting a short opportunity. Prices could decline to 143.00 or 142.80 unless they exceed 144.50.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 61.58 / 62.59

· Support: 57.22 / 56.17

Oil prices dropped over $2 amid U.S.-China trade tensions, with WTI settling at $60.07. U.S. tariffs on China are at 145%, while China's are at 84%. Crude exports to China decreased, and U.S. stockpiles increased. The EIA warned that tariffs could further lower oil prices. WTI is struggling below the 10-day moving average at $60.00 and may decline to $56.60 if it doesn't rise above that level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3250 / 3274

· Support: 3168 / 3137

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.24/ 32.69

· Support: 30.36 / 29.90

The Fed is anticipated to implement a rate cut in May or June following the U.S. March CPI, which decreased to 2.8%. The dollar is weakening due to concerns about tariff uncertainty and capital inflow to the gold market as a safe haven, a precious metal. Gold surged to $3,213. Technical indicators demonstrate a strong upward momentum, with the price exceeding the 20-day SMA at $3,050. Support is $3,168, and resistance is $3,250.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 40245 / 40610

· Support: 37885/ 37417

On Thursday, U.S. stocks declined amid uncertainty regarding Trump's tariff stance and Federal Reserve officials leaning towards maintaining steady interest rates. The Dow futures dropped over 1,000 points but recovered some losses, closing below the 10-day moving average. Watch for any decline below 38,000.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19272/ 19835

· Support: 17447 / 16893

The market is concerned about Trump's unpredictable policies. Tech stocks declined, with the Nasdaq dropping and encountering resistance at the 10-day moving average. Support is anticipated to be below 18,000.

BTC

· Resistance: 81501/ 83161

· Support: 76100 / 74468

Bitcoin fell 3% on Thursday, dropping below $80,000 as the crypto market declined over 5%. This drop followed lower-than-expected March CPI data of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, along with President Trump's 90-day tariff pause affecting 75 countries. Analysts caution that the CPI report may underestimate future inflation because inventory buffers could delay the impact of tariffs. Expect BTC to stabilise around the $76,000 level, indicating a support range and potential rebound opportunities. 

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