ATFX Market Outlook 10th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th April 2025

US Three Major Stock Indices Surge Amid Trump's 90-day Tariff PauseMarket HighlightThirteen hours after implementation, Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for several countries, raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. Financial markets surged, with the S&P 500 closing 9.5% and the Nasdaq up 12.2%, marking the most significant single-day gain since January 3, 2001, and the second largest on record. The Dow rose nearly 3,000 points, the biggest one-day gain since March 2020, but long-term tariff uncertainty remains.

The dollar index fell then rose, briefly exceeding 103 after the announcement. U.S. Treasury yields saw the largest rise since 2008. The euro fell 0.04% to 1.0952 against the dollar; the dollar rose 1.01% to 143.99 against the yen and 1.01% against the Swiss franc. The pound rose 0.42% to 1.2817 against the dollar.

With higher tariffs on China, safe-haven flows pushed gold prices up over 2% on Wednesday, the best single-day gain since October 2023. Gold briefly hit a high near $3,100. Oil prices soared from a four-year low, with U.S. crude closing over 4% higher after dropping about 7% initially.

Key OutlookThe latest U.S. CPI report will be released tonight, potentially adding to market volatility as tariffs increase inflation pressure. March's CPI year-over-year is expected to be 2.6% (previous 2.8%), core CPI 3.0% (previous 3.1%), and monthly CPI 0.10% (previous 0.2%), the smallest rise since July. The report may already reflect pre-tariff implementation increases in consumer spending.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US Core CPI YoY MAR ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

Tomorrow

14:00 GB GDP & Industrial Production FEB ** 

14:00 EU Germany CPI YoY MAR *** 

20:30 US Core PPI MAR *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1049 / 1.1099

· Support: 1.0890 / 1.0841

U.S. Fed officials are concerned about inflation and slower growth due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs. Despite a temporary pause, the EUR/USD remained between 1.1000 and 1.0900 with a 10% tax in effect. A 75-basis-point cut in the Fed rate is anticipated within a year, but uncertainties may cause delays. Key U.S. inflation data is approaching, so investors should monitor U.S. inflation to steer the EURUSD momentum. 

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.2920 / 1.2959

· Support: 1.2739 / 1.2700

GBP/USD climbed above 1.2800 after the Trump administration's 90-day tariff delay boosted market confidence. However, GBP only increased by 0.3%. Key U.S. inflation data is approaching, so investors should monitor U.S. inflation to steer the GBPUSD momentum. However, the bullish momentum remains weak, despite a modest rebound from the 200-day EMA.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 148.14 / 148.62

· Support: 146.06 / 145.57

The USD/JPY pair rebounded significantly yesterday after tariff news, reaching a low of 144 before closing up over 1%. However, it couldn't break through the 10-day moving average resistance and has since given back some gains. It is expected to trade within last week's range today.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 64.90 / 65.94

· Support: 59.51 / 58.47

Crude prices fell over 4% yesterday, dropping below $55, but then surged 8% following tariff news. Following the Asian trading session, oil prices opened higher but lost some gains throughout the session. Key resistance levels to watch this week are around $64 and the 10-day moving average at $65.40.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3136 / 3168

· Support: 3037 / 3006

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.24/ 32.69

· Support: 29.90 / 29.34

Gold approached $3,100 due to U.S.-China trade tensions. Trump paused tariffs for most countries but increased them on China to 104%. Traders are anticipating U.S. CPI data, with core CPI (MoM) predicted at 0.3% and (YoY) at 3.0%. Higher-than-expected inflation could boost the dollar and put pressure on commodity prices.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41476 / 41848

· Support: 39866 / 39488

Trump authorised a 90-day suspension of tariffs on non-retaliatory countries, causing a significant surge in U.S. stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 3,000 points, rising above 40,000 while staying at the 10-day moving average. A breakthrough during the day is essential to maintain this trend, with U.S. inflation data expected to provide additional surprises tonight.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19835/ 20399

· Support: 18154 / 17447

The suspension of tariffs boosted the market, with large tech stocks closing sharply higher, some even recording double-digit gains. The Nasdaq surged over 12%, rising from 17,000 to over 19,100, approaching its 20-day moving average, which could lead to further gains or a pullback toward the 10-day moving average around 18,700. Attention is focused on tonight's US inflation announcement.

BTC

· Resistance: 86452/ 88534

· Support: 79841 / 77787

Bitcoin surged more than 8% after Trump declared a 90-day tariff pause amid alleviating trade war fears. Larry Fink from BlackRock mentioned that this might represent a "buying opportunity." Investors remain cautious ahead of US inflation reports, which could lead to a decline if Bitcoin drops below $80,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.