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Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 27, 2022 at 03:01
Activity components:The DM flash forward-looking components decreased sharply for serviceso(future activity down by -6.0pt) on concerns over the war in Ukraine.The composite flash employment PMI increased in the US (+1.4pt)oconsistent with mostly positive early US employment surveys, ticked up inAustralia (+0.4pt) and in the UK (+0.3pt), and remained roughly unchangedin the Euro Area and Japan.
Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 27, 2022 at 03:00
Country-level trends:The manufacturing flash PMI increased in the US (+1.2pt), edged up inoJapan (+0.4pt) and Australia (+0.3pt), but declined in the Euro Area (-1.1pt)and especially in the UK (-2.5pt).The services flash PMI increased in Japan (+4.5pt) and the US (+2.4pt),obut edged down in the Euro Area (-0.6pt). Early US business activitysurveys were strong for services, but mixed for manufacturing.
Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 27, 2022 at 02:59
DM trends:The DM composite flash PMI increased by 1.4pt in March, reflecting anoexpansion in services (+1.6pt) from further easing of Omicron restrictions.
Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:27
One feature of our forecast is a modest inversion of the 2s10s yield curve bynyear-end. However, we note that the nominal curve tends to invert more easily ina high inflation environment, and we could see earlier and/or deeper curveinversions this cycle. In such an environment, a deeper nominal curve inversionmay be needed to produce the same recession odds in models as seen in morerecent business cycles.
Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:27
Our forecast revisions at the front end are larger: our 2y forecasts for YE22 andnYE23 are 2.9% and 3.15%; while the former is only about 20bp above currentforwards, the latter is roughly 50bp higher, reflecting our higher terminal rateassumption. At longer maturities, we see a more gradual increase, given ourexpectations for strong demand from liability-driven investors—we now expect30y yields to end the year at 2.75%.
Razor EA
in
Trading Systems
Mar 25, 2022 at 14:25
In today’s note, we update our forecasts for US Treasury yields across the curveto reflect more broad-based and persistent price pressures and theaccompanying hawkish Fed pivot. We see the benchmark 10y UST yields endingthe year at 2.7%, up from our prior projection of 2.25%. The risks to our forecastare two-sided; a deescalation of the war in Ukraine or more persistent inflationcould mean even higher realized levels, whereas the opposite could result inlower levels.
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