JZ Prop Account 토론

There was a rather large down month in July 2009. This is because I made a withdraw at the beginning of the month and did not reduce my trading position accordingly. It was of course a mistake on my part and I shall try to avoid it in the future. also please note the largest win/loss pips are from Gold trade so they are REALLY large.

BTW this is not an EA so do not ask for it. Every trade is executed manually and with a lot of thought and work behind it.

what indicator did you use?

to2m posted:
    what indicator did you use?

No technical indicator really. I look at the chart maybe once a week and before a trade when I have crystallized an idea. Mostly I just look at the prices and read the news.

may u post ur chart and give it an arrow did you place your trades. i will try to catch its price patern and write its Indicator/EA 😁

to2m posted:
    may u post ur chart and give it an arrow did you place your trades. i will try to catch its price patern and write its Indicator/EA 😁

You can see the date & time in the history page, it is public.

I don't think an indicator/EA could do the same thing. My trading is discretionary and a lot of it are based on gut feeling and some times I would form an idea from reading. For example, I entered short AUD in mid November because I was looking for a break. And the reason I was looking for a break was because I thought there was going to be some portfolio adjustments as the year end nears. With the market going up all year 2009 it made sense for traders to take off some risk and secure a good bonus for the year. I mean if they weren't going to take off any risk at least they wouldn't add more. There was another reason and that was the RBA jacked up rates again and the market did not take out the previous high. It's having trouble advancing beyond 9300. So combined it made sense for me to start a short campaign on AUD (If you go through my history page I was actually long AUD the whole way until mid-november, I practically ran it to the top of the move. My longs were out at an average price of around 9200). It was really a low risk trade. I was a little early and a little fast as it didn't break down immediately as I thought. I took a few small losses with my initial positions but when the Dubai news broke out, and when the NFP numbers came out so positive, EUR and Gold started plummeting I knew it was time so I started shorting it again(my average price now is 9100+). So even though my initial positions were a loss, my campaign as a whole was very successful. I haven't exited the shorts yet so now it's an unrealized profit of about 20-30%. I will see how far it can run.

So you see a lot of it are based on experience, gut feeling and watching the market. I don't think an indicator or an EA can do the same thing.

i see...

Nice performance...
Only one month lost instead 15 months...

Just want to know ..What happened If U did not withdraw in July 2009 ?.
 

slank posted:
    Nice performance...
Only one month lost instead 15 months...

Just want to know ..What happened If U did not withdraw in July 2009 ?.
 

thanks!

It would still be a loss, amid a smaller one. It would be in the high single digits instead of a double digit loss.

Nice growth. Congrats. Do you trade higher time frames like H4 or higher? Because I see the growth is pretty choppy ... big losses and big profits at once. Do you hold your trades for several days?

arezab posted:
    Nice growth. Congrats. Do you trade higher time frames like H4 or higher? Because I see the growth is pretty choppy ... big losses and big profits at once. Do you hold your trades for several days?

Thank you.

I look at daily mainly. What do you mean by big losses? I always thought I controlled my loss quite good. Also on the growth chart you see periods of non-growth that's because the growth chart is calculated by balance not NAV.

Holding time could be several days to several weeks to several months. If you look at my monthly stats, you will see I was long AUDUSD from September 09 to November 09, so that's about three months. In November I flipped and went short until the end of December so that's 2 months roughly. The truth is, it doesn't matter, timeframe is a subject thing. If you look at all your winning trades, you win when the market goes your way NO MATTER the time frame.

cateful posted:
    I'll try to explain a live example. Right now I'm starting to get interested in the euro pound cross. It has been trapped in a 300 pip range for the past three months. It was in a 700 pip range for 4 years before it broke loose in 2007. There will be a rate decision later this week and there is very little chance that they would raise rates. Right now I'm clueless as where it's going like everybody else but if you stick a gun to my head I would probably say it is going to break down rather than up. But most likely it will do nothing and sit there just like it did in 2003-2007. There are people looking for parity on this pair but I just don't see that happening in the current environment. My bet is that ECB will lack behind BOE in ending crisis measures and starting to raise interest rate. I need more information before making a decision to start a campaign on pound sterling. I will have no problem flipping to the long side if new information comes out supporting this view. But now my view is mostly balanced with a slight downside bias.

See original post here: https://www.myfxbook.com/community/general/open-trades-locked/11677,1#?pt=2&p=3&o=11677

I think a breakout is going to happen very soon now. My bias is to the downside. Therefore I consider any price above 8850 a good price. I have an initial ticket booked at 8970+, I am looking to add a second one on reactions should the cross move lower. My aim is to have a modest position with good starting price above 8850 while simultaneously manage my risk exposure to the minimum before the real move starts. If it breaks up the previous high (which I hope will not happen lol) I will reduce my position quickly and re-evaluate the compaign. I stand to lose 50-100 pips per bar if it breaks up but will make a lot more if it breaks down. My event risk at the moment is the ECB rate decision tomorrow which again, I expect they will leave the rates unchanged but the conference after the decision could prove to be a mover. I expect them to continue QE program, mention there is very little inflationary risk, and there may be a discussion on Greece.

The ECB rate decision and conference went as I expected earlier today. Mr. Trichet and his bandits made the following points

ECB posted:

Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged......The outcome of the monetary analysis confirms the assessment of low inflationary pressure over the medium term, given the ongoing parallel decline in money and credit growth.......many euro area governments are faced with high and sharply rising fiscal imbalances. The very large government borrowing requirements carry the risk of triggering rapid changes in market sentiment, leading to less favourable medium and long-term market interest rates

This is basically what they said last time with an added flavor on the Greek factor. He later mentioned Greece will not receive 'special treatment' in the Q&A session. In plain English, this says ECB is not going to start monetary tightening anytime soon. In contrast to the ECB, BOE's Asset Purchase Program is going to end next month according to their schedule book. So overall I think this is a re-affirming event for my short campaign on the euro pound cross. I will now look to increase my position on possible reactions until it breaks 8850. When it breaks I expect to see a modest decline with small reactions lasting less than 100 pips. I should be able to ride out the reactions and hopefully I will have a full-on position and make some money on this trade.

Also another trade I am looking at is the EURAUD cross which is not as liquid as the european crosses but still an active pair. Technically it is at a strategic price between 1.55 and 56. This is a multi-year low. It touched this price on numerous occasions in 1997, 2004, 2005, and 2007. If this level is breached it will be at a 10-year low. Right now the information I have on hand suggests there is a good possibility this might happen. However I am not quite confident about this at the moment. Will need new information.

Well EURGBP turns out to be an OK start. I wanted to have a more modest starting position before it had broken 8850 but it broke so fast and so soon I only managed to accumate 3/5 of what I wanted. Bad execution on my part. Also the decline seems to be more severe than I thought. I expected reactions of 100 pips maximum but so far there has been only 50-pip reactions. Well anyway I'm running a lighter position than I would like to but a profit trade is a profit trade, right?

yes, any profit is still a profit.

why did you expect it to move 100 pips?

biz0101 posted:
    yes, any profit is still a profit.

why did you expect it to move 100 pips?

Because that's what it does usually when it reacts.

cateful posted:
Because that's what it does usually when it reacts.

obviously 😳 i didn't read the previous posts, sorry..

so basically it's a straddle strategy after a high volatility news event?

biz0101 posted:
so basically it's a straddle strategy after a high volatility news event?

No, I'm always long volatility but not directly through a straddle. A straddle is price-directionless, whereas mine is. I was betting on the price to go down, remember? Never, never short volatility.

And no, it's not after a news event. A news event is a news event is a news event. It's just news. It comes out either support my view or against. I can't flip a position just based on one news event.

Essentially I am betting on dislocations, sentiment changes, and other macro themes available at the time of decision.

To put it simply, I'm just betting on 'opportunities'.

Please read post on the first page if you want to know more.

Thanks!