Sticky US inflation fuels the dollar’s engines

March out of Fed rate cut map as US inflation proves sticky

The US dollar surged against all its major counterparts on Tuesday as the US CPI data revealed that inflation in the world’s largest economy is not cooling as fast as expected.

Both headline and core inflation accelerated in monthly terms in January, taking the headline year-on-year rate lower, but not as low as expected, and keeping the core rate unchanged at 3.9% y/y.

With underlying inflation nearly double the Fed’s 2% objective, market participants threw out of the window any remaining chances of a March rate cut. Even the probability for May has slid below 50%, with a 25bps reduction now being fully priced in for June. As for the total number of basis points worth of rate reductions for the whole year, it has fallen to 95, which means that the market is now expecting only one quarter-point hike more than the Fed’s dot plot suggested in December.

Following the astounding NFP report for the first month of the year, and the strong ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the CPI data came to complete a hat trick confirming the Fed’s view that there is no urgency to lower interest rates. And this is translating into higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

Given that there is still room for the market to take its projections closer to the Fed’s dot plot, the greenback may continue to benefit should data keep suggesting that the US economy could be reaccelerating. With that in mind, dollar traders may now turn their gaze to Thursday’s retail sales.

Yen fall triggers warnings, pound extends slide after UK CPIs

Dollar/yen climbed above the psychological round number of 150.00 following the US inflation numbers, a move that spurred Japanese officials to once again express concerns about the yen’s sharp declines.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said that they would take appropriate actions if needed, while finance minister Shunichi Suzuki added that rapid moves are undesirable for the economy.

The yen stabilized after the remarks, but with a BoJ pushing back against expectations of an imminent rate hike and the Fed implied path being revised up day by day, it may be hard for the yen to stage a strong comeback without an actual intervention episode. And even if this happens at some point soon, for the comeback to evolve into a long-lasting recovery, the BoJ may need to appear less dovish and start hinting at when interest rates may eventually exit negative territory.

The pound extended its suffering against the US dollar today after data showed that UK inflation did not accelerate in January as it was forecast. That said, it did not slow either, with both the headline and core CPI rates holding steady at 4.0% and 5.1% y/y, respectively. Market pricing regarding the BoE’s future course of action was not altered much, with a 25bps cut remaining fully priced in for August.

The next test for pound traders may be tomorrow’s preliminary GDP data for Q4. Following the 0.1% contraction in Q3, the forecast points to another 0.1% contraction, which will confirm a technical recession and perhaps prompt investors to start adding to their rate cut bets despite the BoE’s “higher for longer” message.

Wall Street pulls back, gold slides as yields and dollar gain

On Wall Street, all three of its main indices fell more than 1% after the US CPIs, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq losing the most as expectations of higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs for companies and lower present values for firms that are valued by discounting expected future cash flows.

That said, with data suggesting that the US economy is firing on all cylinders, and investors seemingly not fully pricing in future growth opportunities with regards to artificial intelligence, the current retreat, or any extensions of it, may prove to be just a correction before the next leg north.

Gold also suffered after the US inflation data as both the dollar and Treasury yields rose. However, the precious metal has not entered a bear market yet, as the stalemate of ceasefire talks in the Middle East is still allowing for some safe haven flows.