Markets Steady as Bitcoin Hits $90K, Gold Rebounds

●     Dollar Steady Amid Light Data Calendar

●     Bitcoin Hits $90K While Momentum Slows

●     Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand as Oil Declines

Market Summary

Bitcoin surged past $90,000, with a 30% rally since the U.S. election and the crypto market cap exceeding $3 trillion. However, momentum has slowed as investors digest earlier gains. Meanwhile, gold prices rebounded on renewed safe-haven demand driven by trade and political uncertainties, providing support despite pressure from higher Treasury yields.

The Dollar Index held steady as markets priced in U.S. election outcomes, with attention shifting to upcoming U.S. economic data, including housing figures, weekly jobless claims, and Friday's PMI reports. These updates could reveal corporate sentiment and insights into potential trade tariffs under President Trump, shaping the economic outlook.

Oil prices fell 2% amid weak Chinese demand and slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, with concerns of a global surplus by 2025 weighing on sentiment. Both the oil and gold markets remain sensitive to evolving economic and geopolitical developments, influencing investor positioning.

 Current rate hike bets on 18th December Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (32.2%) VS -25 bps (67.8%) 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index remained largely unchanged as investors have fully priced in U.S. election outcomes and await fresh drivers. The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is light, featuring housing sector data (building permits, existing home sales), weekly jobless claims, and manufacturing and services PMI reports on Friday. The PMI data could provide early signs of corporate sentiment regarding potential trade tariffs proposed by President Trump. Investors will closely monitor these updates for insight into the broader economic outlook.

The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 50, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 107.00, 107.80

Support level: 106.20, 105.65

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices rose in early Asian trading as investor focus shifted back to the metal's safe-haven appeal following a period dominated by the U.S. Treasury yields and election-driven dollar strength. Uncertainty surrounding potential aggressive tariffs under President Trump and ongoing political risks have renewed interest in gold. While the metal faces headwinds from higher yields, safe-haven demand could provide support in the coming weeks.

Gold prices are trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 50, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 2605.00, 2660.00

Support level: 2525.00, 2525.00

GBP/USD，H4

The British pound extended its losses as a bleak UK economic outlook overshadowed the currency. The UK’s October CPI data, expected Wednesday, is forecast to show inflation rising to 2.2%, above the Bank of England's 2% target, reversing September’s drop to 1.7%. This may prompt cautious monetary policy adjustments. The BoE’s recent 25-basis point rate cut signals a measured approach to balancing inflation pressures and economic risks. Governor Andrew Bailey and other officials’ testimony before Parliament’s Treasury Committee on Tuesday will provide further insight into the central bank’s outlook.

GBP/USD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 32, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.3005

Support level: 1.2615, 1.2350

EUR/USD，H4

The Euro remains on the backfoot as the European Central Bank (ECB) signals continued dovishness, with a policy rate cut anticipated in December. The European Commission's Autumn 2024 forecast projects headline inflation in the Euro Area to drop from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, easing to 1.9% by 2026. Economic growth forecasts remain modest, with the Eurozone expected to grow 0.8% in 2024, followed by downwardly revised growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The ECB’s cautious approach is likely to keep the Euro under pressure in the near term as investors focus on inflation and growth metrics.

EUR/USD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 30, suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory.

Resistance level: 1.0680, 1.0780

Support level: 1.0525, 1.0325

USD/JPY, H4

The Japanese yen strengthened as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a willingness to raise policy rates further and fine-tune monetary support. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added to the yen’s rally by warning of heightened vigilance over foreign exchange (FX) market moves, suggesting potential intervention against excessive volatility. 

USD/JPY is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the pair might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 157.25, 160.05

Support level:  153.65, 151.55

HK50, H4:

Hong Kong’s benchmark HK50 index snapped a six-day losing streak, driven by gains in Chinese banks following regulatory pressure to boost share prices for undervalued companies. This move has temporarily lifted sentiment in the banking sector. However, the long-term outlook for the index hinges on U.S.-China relations, as renewed trade tensions under the Trump presidency pose risks. Investors should remain vigilant for updates on trade developments to gauge further signals for HK50 movements.

Hang Seng Index is trading flat, while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 37, suggesting the index might edge higher since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level:  20320.0, 21210.0

Support level:  19385.0, 18155.0

BTC/USD, H4

Bitcoin surged past the $90,000 level, posting a 30% gain since the Nov. 5 U.S. election, with the crypto market cap exceeding $3 trillion for the first time. Bitcoin’s rally reflects its growing appeal as a speculative asset, now rivalling the combined market cap of Tesla, Meta, and Berkshire Hathaway. However, momentum is slowing as investors digest prior bullish news. Traders should keep an eye on fresh developments for further price movements in the highly volatile crypto market.

BTC/USD is trading flat while currently hovering around the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 55, suggesting the crypto might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 94000.00, 100000.00

Support level: 84705.00, 77130.00

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices closed 2% lower on Friday, extending weekly losses amid concerns over sluggish Chinese demand and slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts. Data revealed that Chinese refineries processed less crude in October year-over-year, reflecting weakening domestic demand in the world’s largest crude importer. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a global oil surplus by 2025. These factors weighed on the oil market, and further demand concerns could sustain pressure on prices.

Oil prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 35, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 68.45, 69.95

Support level: 66.90, 65.60