MoneyTreePrimaryHedge (による quintodc)
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MoneyTreePrimaryHedge 討論
Mar 08, 2010 at 22:19
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12 Replies
Mar 20, 2010 at 17:26
(編集済みのMar 20, 2010 at 17:27)
Hello stricky
Thanks for the question
Yes I am using the moneytree strategies - a mixture of the three. I set the initial triggers Sunday evening (using the set and forget strategy), then I use the secondary hedging strategy on any pairs that have hit their first price trigger (by moving the opposite trigger closer to the current price, exactly as per the hedging trigger data provided). Once the first trigger trades have completed I then look to place trades using the main hedging strategy. It is this final strategy which has won me the pips so far, but I am hoping for a better result on the trigger trades in the future.
My first weekly review should be up on the simplemoneytree website in the next day or so. This contains a lot more detail on how I have traded.
Kind regards
Doug
Thanks for the question
Yes I am using the moneytree strategies - a mixture of the three. I set the initial triggers Sunday evening (using the set and forget strategy), then I use the secondary hedging strategy on any pairs that have hit their first price trigger (by moving the opposite trigger closer to the current price, exactly as per the hedging trigger data provided). Once the first trigger trades have completed I then look to place trades using the main hedging strategy. It is this final strategy which has won me the pips so far, but I am hoping for a better result on the trigger trades in the future.
My first weekly review should be up on the simplemoneytree website in the next day or so. This contains a lot more detail on how I have traded.
Kind regards
Doug
Mar 21, 2010 at 12:12
thanks Doug,
Just read your weekly report on the site, excellent and very interesting. It's very helpful to all to have another trader’s perspective on the best way to use the information supplied.
Your trading strategy appears to be in line with my own over the last few weeks. Coincidently I had come to the conclusion you mention in your last paragraph regarding the simplified OCO 'opposite short/long - long/short' orders and was planning to implement this strategy this week to see how it goes.
However as I'm sure you realise the only fly in this particular pot of ointment is the frequency of larger 300 pip stops being hit.
I was burned on this a few weeks ago and have to say it knocked my confidence using the system as my profits were compounded the hit was large and set me back. But as you also mentioned it would be great to have some meaningful historical data to work with that would help to allay such fears.
Thanks Doug and good luck
Just read your weekly report on the site, excellent and very interesting. It's very helpful to all to have another trader’s perspective on the best way to use the information supplied.
Your trading strategy appears to be in line with my own over the last few weeks. Coincidently I had come to the conclusion you mention in your last paragraph regarding the simplified OCO 'opposite short/long - long/short' orders and was planning to implement this strategy this week to see how it goes.
However as I'm sure you realise the only fly in this particular pot of ointment is the frequency of larger 300 pip stops being hit.
I was burned on this a few weeks ago and have to say it knocked my confidence using the system as my profits were compounded the hit was large and set me back. But as you also mentioned it would be great to have some meaningful historical data to work with that would help to allay such fears.
Thanks Doug and good luck
Mar 23, 2010 at 17:02
(編集済みのMar 23, 2010 at 17:04)
Hello Stricky
Just read this post - didn't get an emaill notification from fxbook this time!
Ah, thanks for the comments and glad you liked the report. I hope you used the 'OCO Opposite' strategy this week ! - was the best to use as it was very quick on Monday morning wasn't it...!! Which week report was it where you got hit by the 300pips? Yes really need a year's data at least to provide a good level of confidence, but I will see how it would have fared overall on the now 10 weeks of data to date inc ideal SL. I'm thinking I might try the strategy, but maybe not on overnight orders - view price action in morning and place market orders as price leads.
Yes, my profits are compounding as well - using oanda (is this what you use?), each trade can be set to a default % of account size which creates an auto-compound trade by trade. As you say, the only thing is the dent on the occassional large loss. Really sorry to hear about that!
Overall pretty much a BE week for me. I lost on 4 triggers Mon morning but recovered losses with the EUR and CHF hedge trigger trades. Then made a little ground with a primary hedge on JPY yesterday through to today. Missed any primary hedge trades on EUR, GBP and CHF this week.
Unfortunately got excited by a EUR double bottom this pm and went in but set a too short SL which was hit ! Went in again later - probably a regret trade so pulled out when I was in profit and didn't quite cover my earlier EUR mistrade.
Hope you did better !
Kind regards
Doug
Just read this post - didn't get an emaill notification from fxbook this time!
Ah, thanks for the comments and glad you liked the report. I hope you used the 'OCO Opposite' strategy this week ! - was the best to use as it was very quick on Monday morning wasn't it...!! Which week report was it where you got hit by the 300pips? Yes really need a year's data at least to provide a good level of confidence, but I will see how it would have fared overall on the now 10 weeks of data to date inc ideal SL. I'm thinking I might try the strategy, but maybe not on overnight orders - view price action in morning and place market orders as price leads.
Yes, my profits are compounding as well - using oanda (is this what you use?), each trade can be set to a default % of account size which creates an auto-compound trade by trade. As you say, the only thing is the dent on the occassional large loss. Really sorry to hear about that!
Overall pretty much a BE week for me. I lost on 4 triggers Mon morning but recovered losses with the EUR and CHF hedge trigger trades. Then made a little ground with a primary hedge on JPY yesterday through to today. Missed any primary hedge trades on EUR, GBP and CHF this week.
Unfortunately got excited by a EUR double bottom this pm and went in but set a too short SL which was hit ! Went in again later - probably a regret trade so pulled out when I was in profit and didn't quite cover my earlier EUR mistrade.
Hope you did better !
Kind regards
Doug
Mar 23, 2010 at 23:37
(編集済みのMar 23, 2010 at 23:38)
Results are in on GBPUSD the biggest moving pair of the 4:
90% success rate on hitting both main triggers over 10 weeks.
Stop Loss required to hit 9 out of 10 weeks = 165 (NOT 300!!). You could add a margin to make 175 or 200, but I would use 200SL max for even GBPUSD - if it goes away from price that far, signal, it's time to get out!
PIPS WON on OCO Opposite strategy using 175 SL = 709pips won in 10 weeks = 70pip weekly average. And 175SL is less scary than a 300pip with regards to maintaining a healthy capital balance....!
Hmmm....
Will leave results of other pairs until I put in my next weekly report....
Doug.
90% success rate on hitting both main triggers over 10 weeks.
Stop Loss required to hit 9 out of 10 weeks = 165 (NOT 300!!). You could add a margin to make 175 or 200, but I would use 200SL max for even GBPUSD - if it goes away from price that far, signal, it's time to get out!
PIPS WON on OCO Opposite strategy using 175 SL = 709pips won in 10 weeks = 70pip weekly average. And 175SL is less scary than a 300pip with regards to maintaining a healthy capital balance....!
Hmmm....
Will leave results of other pairs until I put in my next weekly report....
Doug.
Mar 25, 2010 at 13:49
(編集済みのMar 25, 2010 at 13:49)
Cheers Doug -
Used the 'OCO Opposite' strategy only this week made 280pips, very, very pleased and stress free too.
eur/usd - 85 pts - chickened out and took profits just before upper trigger on this, due to eur turbulance at the mo.
gbp/usd - 102 pts
usd/chf - 82pts
usd/jpy - 11 pts - didn't want to push my luck and closed out early, should have held tho, ho-hum.
Sorry it was a 200 pt hit on usd/jpy w/c 21/02, not 300 pts, but I believe gbp/usd went to -317pts on the 18/03, if my figs are correct??
cheers
Jon
Used the 'OCO Opposite' strategy only this week made 280pips, very, very pleased and stress free too.
eur/usd - 85 pts - chickened out and took profits just before upper trigger on this, due to eur turbulance at the mo.
gbp/usd - 102 pts
usd/chf - 82pts
usd/jpy - 11 pts - didn't want to push my luck and closed out early, should have held tho, ho-hum.
Sorry it was a 200 pt hit on usd/jpy w/c 21/02, not 300 pts, but I believe gbp/usd went to -317pts on the 18/03, if my figs are correct??
cheers
Jon
Mar 28, 2010 at 22:40
Hey, well done Stricky - fantastic result!! I'm planning on using it this week, although EUR and CHF are already beyond first triggers at start of Sunday eve. Will wait till the spreads are down and then make a decision on whether to place market orders on those. (Ed - trades now placed on EUR, GBP and CHF)
Yeh USDJPY had a couple of bad weeks for lost pips - 200+ like you say. I think the GBPUSD one reached 417pips beyond its marker and then came back up again by close of week. Not a nice one.
Have now posted the 10 week optimum stops on my weekly report.
Have a great week!
Doug
Yeh USDJPY had a couple of bad weeks for lost pips - 200+ like you say. I think the GBPUSD one reached 417pips beyond its marker and then came back up again by close of week. Not a nice one.
Have now posted the 10 week optimum stops on my weekly report.
Have a great week!
Doug
Mar 31, 2010 at 11:36
No, unfortunately, the trend has been set against us this week. I'm out of all my trades now as EUR and CHF failed for a 2nd time to reach target. Enough's enough for me and hope next week recovers the losses!! Of course if had used reduced hedge triggers as profit targets on Sun eve would be happy with the week! (also initial trigger trades would have worked well for GBP, EUR and JPY, ignoring sunday price movement).
Hope your week ends better!
Hope your week ends better!
Mar 31, 2010 at 13:05
yeh know what you mean Doug very tempted to come out of my 3 remaining trades and roll the loss over to next week. It seems pretty volotile at the moment, maybe to do with the NFP in the US friday. I've never known the signals be 4 pairs out though so I'm interested to see how it pans out. At the moment I'm circa 200 points down
Mar 31, 2010 at 15:04
yeh, quite a bit of news this week. check out: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php. Useful to refer to during the week...
Yesterday better than expected GDP for UK, today US got much worse than expected non-farm employment change...
Yesterday better than expected GDP for UK, today US got much worse than expected non-farm employment change...
Mar 31, 2010 at 15:51
(編集済みのMar 31, 2010 at 15:56)
Interestingly, looking at 4hr chart, EURUSD reached exactly 50% fibonacci level from the high of 17 March (1.38167) to the low of 25 March (1.32664) at its peak today and the peak also creates a bit of a double top, so could be down from here for rest of week...???
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