Dollar Dilemma: FOMC Caution

• FOMC Meeting Minutes Awaited: US Dollar Subdued Amid Inflation Caution
• Gold Prices Flat Amid Dollar Strength, Fed Caution on Rate Cuts
• British Pound Gains Ahead of CPI Data: BOE Rate Cuts Looming?Market Summary

Market Summary The US Dollar remained subdued as investors awaited the FOMC meeting minutes, with Federal Reserve officials emphasising the need for more evidence of easing inflation before considering rate cuts. This cautious stance has kept the dollar in check, influencing other markets.

Gold prices stayed flat but slightly retreated due to the appreciating dollar and cautious comments from Fed members about the risks of cutting rates prematurely. Investors are closely monitoring Fed monetary policy decisions for further trading signals.

The British Pound increased in anticipation of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Expectations of a significant drop in inflation could prompt early rate cuts by the Bank of England, with potential cuts speculated between June and August. Investors are advised to monitoring UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)

 Current rate hike bets on 12nd June Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (91.1%) VS -25 bps (8.9%)  

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US Dollar remained subdued due to a lack of market catalysts, as investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes later this week. Several Fed officials have cautioned that more evidence of easing inflation is needed before considering interest rate cuts, indicating that rate decisions remain data-dependent.

The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 48, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 104.65, 105.70

Support level: 103.90, 103.15

 XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices remained flat but retreated slightly due to the appreciation of the US Dollar following cautious comments from Fed members on the risks of cutting rates prematurely. The overall trend is attributed to technical correction ahead of major events like the FOMC meeting minutes. Investors are advised to monitor Fed monetary policy decisions for further trading signals.

Gold prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 58, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI retraced sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 2450.00, 2480.00

Support level: 2420.00, 2395.00

 GBP/USD，H4

The British Pound edged slightly higher in anticipation of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April. Economists expect the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) to report a sharp decline in headline inflation to 2.1% from the previous 3.2%. A significant drop in inflation could increase the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) considering early rate cuts, with speculations pointing to potential cuts between June and August. Investors should continue monitoring these developments for further trading signals.

GBP/USD trades higher following the prior breakout above the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 68, suggesting the pair might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.2865

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2610

 EUR/USD，H4

The Euro remained flat but hovered around a strong resistance level, mainly due to technical correction trades. This week, investors will focus on remarks from Fed officials and the absence of key US data releases. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's speech and the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting will be closely watched. Investors should monitor these developments for further trading signals.

EUR/USD is trading flat while currently near the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 54, suggesting the pair might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 1.0865, 1.0925

Support level: 1.0805, 1.0730

 USD/JPY，H4

The Japanese Yen continued to weaken due to a lack of updates from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding potential currency intervention. The widening yield differential between Japan and the US, especially after Fed members vowed to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, has prompted further sell-off of the Yen. Investors should keep an eye on the FOMC meeting minutes for further trading signals.

USD/JPY is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 57, suggesting the pair might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 156.55, 158.20

Support level: 153.65, 152.10

Nasdaq (US100), H4

US equity markets extended gains slightly, driven by persistent performance in technology stocks and anticipation of key earnings from Nvidia. Confidence in the US equity market remains strong, fueled by the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence industry, which is expected to significantly boost earnings, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Nvidia, known for its advanced AI chips, is expected to benefit substantially from demand in major tech companies.

Nasdaq is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 77, suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 19125.00, 19690.00

Support level: 18430.00, 17850.00

BTC/USD, H4

Cryptocurrencies extended their gains amid a surge in optimism surrounding the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decisions on spot ETF funds. Following the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are now focused on potential approvals for spot Ether ETF applications. Final decisions on applications by VanEck and Ark Invest are due this Thursday and Friday, respectively, with BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, Grayscale, and Bitwise Asset Management also awaiting decisions this year. Any potential approval is expected to boost market confidence in the crypto sector.

BTC is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 64, suggesting the crypto might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 71000, 75185

Support level: 65850, 57505

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices retraced slightly due to hawkish statements from Fed members, who have vowed to keep interest rates higher for longer, weighing on fuel demand. Investors remain cautious ahead of major events, including the FOMC meeting minutes and weekly US oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which are expected to provide further trading signals.

Oil prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 40, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 79.85, 81.35

Support level: 77.75, 76.90