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scwizard
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Posts by
scwizard
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scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 29, 2010 at 12:50
Thesis:News will move the market in its "true direction" unless its really really surprising.Also there are some news, such as GDP #, that will never be surprising.Compared to other types of trading, lately especially, news forecasting has been the most profitable for me. This probably isn't a good sign.Only way to find out of these profits are consistent is to keep trading news I guess.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 29, 2010 at 06:54
<i>Hawk: I sm slhort RU</i>Money > sleep😝
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 28, 2010 at 22:28
Short <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:TIP">this</a>.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 28, 2010 at 15:29
asdf, the dollar was decoupling from risk for a while. Dollar was flat or lower, while risk was lower.Then I made a trade saying that this should continue. Then it reversed, with risk rebounding.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 28, 2010 at 13:08
People in #forex need to learn English.<i>wiz in high none dress pressure</i>THAT PHRASE DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE!I guess it's called <b>foreign</b> exchange for a reason.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 28, 2010 at 10:46
I dunno what happen today.But it was my first up day in a long whiles.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 27, 2010 at 09:46
I did some thinking, and now I'm feeling very bullish.This is represented by my position in AJ. If I ever exit AJ, then you'll know that I was too much of a wuss to trade counter sentiment.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 26, 2010 at 22:43
The fed is having a tricky time controling interest rates. The long end is starting to go up again.Also foreign central banks are raising rates. Sweden did this evening.Now I'm wondering, what happens if FOMC announces QE2, but someone else joins Hoenig in saying that the fed should think about raising rates.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 26, 2010 at 14:26
Two out of two news events guessed correctly today. Pew pew pew.I shorted GU at this point, because my system said to. However my system also takes into account http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratiosSo after checking that page I had to immediately close my position, since 60% of OANDA was short GU, so a GU short wouldn't necessarily be a winning position in that case.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 26, 2010 at 09:13
Look I'm telling you I had a fanatstic day today, I just made a few mistakes that's all.More like a mistake, a dumb mistake. But the real trades I made, the ones using my indi and GOOD judgement, those won.What lost was:1. USD/SEK retardation. "Oh the short covering was automatic, that means it'll retrace for sure!"2. Cable chasing. "Oh it went down on EU open, so let me short it."3. A real trade (long cable) that got stopped out due to the Swedish Bank shaking the market. This loss was acceptable.So all I need to do is turn up my lot size when I'm about to ...
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 16:11
I'm going to try something more technical now, involving trends and pivot points.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 08:19
I hate this market SO much. Apparently trendlines don't work anymore. After all why should trendlines work when Ben is going to print 25 trillion USD of QE2.Also myfxbook is glitching, I meant to write that text as part of the previous post, but it isn't showing up, and now apparently I can't edit my post.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 08:17
<a href="http://i55.tinypic.com/2dah9jc.png"><img src="http://i55.tinypic.com/2dah9jc.png /></a>I hate this market SO much. So apparently trendlines don't work anymore. After all why would trendlines work when Ben is going to print 25 trillion USD of QE2?
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 08:04
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=170185NOW I'VE LOST ITI KNOW I CAN KILLFUCK YOU GOLDMAN SACHS, FUCK YOU BEN BERNANKE4 trillion dollars? That's weak. How about 6 trillion dollars, that's the number CNBC gave. Or how about 8 trillion dollars? Or why not 12 trillion dollars.In theory you'd think that I could only lose the 50$ in my OANDA account, but here in the Untied States we're all long USD whether we like it or not. At this rate I'm going to have to beg my dad for a grocery allowance increase because the prices have risen by 50%.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 07:00
And I'm all in short...if AU manages to break parity today, then we're well into tail territory.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 05:47
Oh geez, will AU reach S3???This is unreal. If AU gets that high I'm going all in short.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 25, 2010 at 01:13
Ouch that stings.Here's what happened. I was short, I got squeezed.The banks took advantage of the low volume, and drove EU up to S2 (taking other U pairs with it) before Hong Kong even opened.I was short gold, so I was really really over leveraged. You can clearly see the result.It has to fall back from here. Unless they're going to squeeze up to S3 before London opens somehow. Or maybe during London. That would just be absurd.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 24, 2010 at 03:20
Now it's time to talk about tail risk.First we have Flash Crash 2, flashier and crashier. I don't think this is really a risk by itself because the exchanges have shown that they're willing to cancel "erroneous" trades manually.Second we have the foreclosure thing. I don't think that's really a risk by itself because the government has shown that they're willing to stop big banks from suddenly defaulting. I still think it will lead to three standard deviation down move, but ultimately the risk will be contained.Third we have a USD confidence crisis. I think th...
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 23, 2010 at 05:30
POMO TOP!http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-advises-clients-front-run-fed-pomoAlso:<a href="http://i52.tinypic.com/mcyede.png"><img src="http://i52.tinypic.com/mcyede.png"></a>Also:<a href="http://i52.tinypic.com/108ilpf.png"><img src="http://i52.tinypic.com/108ilpf.png"></a?All these signs point to the days of longing SPY/AU on POMO days being over. Next week I will be short AU on non POMO days.
scwizard
in
Trading Systems
Oct 22, 2010 at 20:47
When's the last time the market stayed in a 4.22 range on the S&P500 all day?
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