Commodity Currency's Slide As China Trade Data Disappoints

(RTTNews) - The commodity currencies such as Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars weakened against their major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday, after data showed China's exports growth slowed in November and imports declined the most in 14 months, fueling worries about the health of the world's second-largest economy.

Data from the customs office showed that the China's exports grew 6.7 percent annually in November, which was weaker than the 12.7 percent increase posted in October. Economists had forecast an annual growth of 8.5 percent.

At the same time, imports decreased 3.9 percent from a year ago compared to the 2.3 percent fall in October. Imports were forecast to grow 0.3 percent.

As a result, the trade balance showed a surplus of $97.44 billion in November. This was up from $95.27 billion in the previous month and the expected level of $94.0 billion.

Investors also await cues from upcoming U.S. CPI data for November and the ECB policy meeting.

Reports on U.S. consumer and producer price inflation are due to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, while economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time in a row when it meets on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision is due on Dec. 18, with analysts expecting a 25-bps cut. That said, there is some uncertainty about whether the U.S. central bank will continue cutting rates early next year.

According to Chicago Federal Reserve president Austan Goolsbee, the Fed may reach the neutral rate by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the markets in the region react positively to China's announcement of more proactive fiscal measures and a moderately looser monetary policy that bodes well for the nations flattering economy. However, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is weighing on market sentiment.

The Australian dollar also slipped against its major rivals after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged as expected by the economists.

The Australia central bank left its key interest rate unchanged for the ninth straight session, but today's statement lifted hopes of an early interest rate cut. The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia governed by Michele Bullock decided to retain the cash rate target at a 13-year high of 4.35 percent. The decision matched expectations.

The previous change in the interest rate was in November 2023, when it was lifted by 25 basis points to the highest level since late 2011.

The interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances was maintained at 4.25 percent.

The Canadian dollar fell against its most major rivals, as traders focus on the Bank of Canada's interest decision on Wednesday. The BoC is expected to lower the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, following the same action in October, to 3.25 percent.

In the Asian trading today, the Australian dollar fell to 1.6535 against the euro and 96.47 against the yen, from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.6380 and 97.32, respectively. The aussie may test support near 1.67 against the euro and 94.00 against the yen.

Against the U.S., the Canada and the New Zealand dollars, the aussie slipped to 0.6381, 0.9053 and 1.0953 from Monday's closing quotes of 0.6437, 0.9122 and 1.0973, respectively. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.62 against the greenback, 0.89 against the loonie and 1.08 against the kiwi.

The NZ dollar fell to 1.8121 against the euro, from yesterday's closing value of 1.7988. On the downside, 1.83 is seen as the next support level for the kiwi.

Against the U.S. dollar and the yen, the kiwi edged down to 0.5822 and 88.03 from Monday's closing quotes of 0.5863 and 88.64, respectively. If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.56 against the greenback and 86.00 against the yen.

The Canadian dollar fell to more than a 4-year low of 1.4190 against the U.S. dollar and more than a 1-month low of 1.4975 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.4171 and 1.4953, respectively. If the loonie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.43 against the greenback and 1.51 against the euro.

Against the yen, the loonie edged down to 106.47 from Monday's closing value of 106.68. The next possible downside target for the loonie is seen around the 104.00 region.

Looking ahead, U.S. NFIB business optimism index for November and U.S. Redbook report are due to be released in the New York session.