PinPoint Wizard EUR/CHF (By stevetrade)
| Gain : | +981564.45% |
| Drawdown | 0.00% |
| Pips: | 4695.0 |
| Trades | 3981 |
| Won: |
|
| Lost: |
|
| Model Quality: | 90.0% |
| Bars in test: | 242795 |
| Ticks Modelled: | 18776377 |
Forward Test is not available
PinPoint Wizard EUR/CHF Discussion
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 07:48
This is my latest EA.
It's a scalping strategy with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
This is the backtest from 2007 to date with a 1% equity risk per trade.
This is still in Alpha release stage and it needs some work to complete it.
It's a scalping strategy with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
This is the backtest from 2007 to date with a 1% equity risk per trade.
This is still in Alpha release stage and it needs some work to complete it.
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Member Since Sep 21, 2009
70 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 08:20
i can only but laugh at results like this....wonder why myfxbook staff allow this type of spam still on their site...it just damages a great site!
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 08:29
billiboysclub posted:
i can only but laugh at results like this....wonder why myfxbook staff allow this type of spam still on their site...it just damages a great site!
I'm happy to give you a laugh. I'll put you on the list of people who don't want a copy when it's finished then.
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Jun 07, 2010 at 08:37
Billiboysclub: Steve contributes a great deal to this site. I see your comments around a lot too - and they are frequently aggressive ad hominem attacks.
How is this spam? It is a strategy tester report which is openly stated to be in alpha testing. Speaking for myself, I was interested to see it.
How is this spam? It is a strategy tester report which is openly stated to be in alpha testing. Speaking for myself, I was interested to see it.
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 08:57
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 08:57)
Thanks for your comments Markob.
As, I said, it is indeed in Alpha stage at the moment.
Here's the problem with it.
For those people who don't know. MT4 takes the spread that the broker has at the point a strategy test is started.
This is then kept for the duration of the backtest.
So, for scalping strategies this can make a massive difference. It's one of the reasons scalping robots can be sold with ridiculous backtest results that can't be reproduced in forward trading. This is especially visible with Asian session scalpers.
PinPoint Wizard doesn't solely scalp the Asian session. The only time he doesn't trade is the time when news releases could affect the EUR/CHF. So it stops at 7am and starts again at 3pm ( GMT ).
However this backtest was generated with a favourable spread ( it was about 1 pip at the time ). This is why it's at Alpha stage. If I can refine the robot, which I am currently working on, to make it more accurate then it should still be profitable.
Of course, I could have just packaged it up along with this backtest and flogged it to thousands of people for $97. Which I didn't.
As, I said, it is indeed in Alpha stage at the moment.
Here's the problem with it.
For those people who don't know. MT4 takes the spread that the broker has at the point a strategy test is started.
This is then kept for the duration of the backtest.
So, for scalping strategies this can make a massive difference. It's one of the reasons scalping robots can be sold with ridiculous backtest results that can't be reproduced in forward trading. This is especially visible with Asian session scalpers.
PinPoint Wizard doesn't solely scalp the Asian session. The only time he doesn't trade is the time when news releases could affect the EUR/CHF. So it stops at 7am and starts again at 3pm ( GMT ).
However this backtest was generated with a favourable spread ( it was about 1 pip at the time ). This is why it's at Alpha stage. If I can refine the robot, which I am currently working on, to make it more accurate then it should still be profitable.
Of course, I could have just packaged it up along with this backtest and flogged it to thousands of people for $97. Which I didn't.
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Member Since Apr 20, 2010
814 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 09:14
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 09:15)
Nice scalping result with MM. Look amazing exponent grow as the lot size going crazy big over times.
There are few point of skeptic as this kind of back test is use for commercial marketing only and hardly work out on demo.
Can I see more realistic back test ? Such as monthly back test and yearly back test with 1k deposit.
But overall is still very impressive as the TP and SL is 5 pips only.
The indicator must be very accurate as noise around 5 pip is very easy to hit, yet this kind of setting still win.
Looking forward to see the demo test, to see how can it survive with just a limit space of 5 pips movement.
Highly Skeptic back test yet highly expectation for demo test.
There are few point of skeptic as this kind of back test is use for commercial marketing only and hardly work out on demo.
Can I see more realistic back test ? Such as monthly back test and yearly back test with 1k deposit.
But overall is still very impressive as the TP and SL is 5 pips only.
The indicator must be very accurate as noise around 5 pip is very easy to hit, yet this kind of setting still win.
Looking forward to see the demo test, to see how can it survive with just a limit space of 5 pips movement.
Highly Skeptic back test yet highly expectation for demo test.
Information is Gold when come to organised.
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 09:26
I'm away for a few days after today, but once I'm back I'll happily generate a $1k backtest using standard lots and no money management if people are interested in seeing it.
It often doesn't survive a 5 pip movement, fortunately it does more often than it doesn't.
It often doesn't survive a 5 pip movement, fortunately it does more often than it doesn't.
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Jun 07, 2010 at 09:33
Understood. And on EURCHF in particular I find it's tricky to find a spread consistently under 2 pips. Don't suppose it'd work on EURUSD?!
I'd be tempted to sacrifice some trading time for spread - i.e. have it shut down towards the end of the NY session. This is the only way I've managed to keep scalpers alive in real trading. Obviously makes it less profitable but more stable. Another alternative I'm spending a lot of time on at the moment, for various reasons, is 'true' ECN access i.e. direct to Currenex, Hotspot, Lava etc etc. The difficulty for scalpers is twofold: 1 - it's difficult to bridge trades across from MT4 quickly enough (which is of course why MT4 brokers generally aren't keen on scalpers) and 2 - the price feeds are noisier without the 'friendly' (!) market-maker broker doing its filtering. If I can get this working, though, will make a huge difference as these trades will hit the market several milliseconds before the majority of the MT4 dealers'. Let me know if you'd like to discuss this in more depth.
Anyway you've no doubt thought of all this. Just my stream-of-consciousness rambling.
I'd be tempted to sacrifice some trading time for spread - i.e. have it shut down towards the end of the NY session. This is the only way I've managed to keep scalpers alive in real trading. Obviously makes it less profitable but more stable. Another alternative I'm spending a lot of time on at the moment, for various reasons, is 'true' ECN access i.e. direct to Currenex, Hotspot, Lava etc etc. The difficulty for scalpers is twofold: 1 - it's difficult to bridge trades across from MT4 quickly enough (which is of course why MT4 brokers generally aren't keen on scalpers) and 2 - the price feeds are noisier without the 'friendly' (!) market-maker broker doing its filtering. If I can get this working, though, will make a huge difference as these trades will hit the market several milliseconds before the majority of the MT4 dealers'. Let me know if you'd like to discuss this in more depth.
Anyway you've no doubt thought of all this. Just my stream-of-consciousness rambling.
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 09:42
Hi Markob,
I have tried it on Eur/Usd but without as much success to date. There are some changes I am already looking into. A couple should make it slightly more accurate. If I can push the accuracy up towards the 70 percent mark then I can afford to drop a pip from the target and it should still be very profitable.
MB Trading average about 1.6 pips on Eur/Chf, even in the Asian session. So, there's good hope for it.
I'm always happy to discuss trading ideas or robot development in more depth. I spend all my time doing it and input from others is important.
Send me an IM and I can give you my contact details.
Steve
I have tried it on Eur/Usd but without as much success to date. There are some changes I am already looking into. A couple should make it slightly more accurate. If I can push the accuracy up towards the 70 percent mark then I can afford to drop a pip from the target and it should still be very profitable.
MB Trading average about 1.6 pips on Eur/Chf, even in the Asian session. So, there's good hope for it.
I'm always happy to discuss trading ideas or robot development in more depth. I spend all my time doing it and input from others is important.
Send me an IM and I can give you my contact details.
Steve
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Member Since May 28, 2010
25 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 10:28
stevetrade posted:
Hi Markob,
I have tried it on Eur/Usd but without as much success to date. There are some changes I am already looking into. A couple should make it slightly more accurate. If I can push the accuracy up towards the 70 percent mark then I can afford to drop a pip from the target and it should still be very profitable.
MB Trading average about 1.6 pips on Eur/Chf, even in the Asian session. So, there's good hope for it.
I'm always happy to discuss trading ideas or robot development in more depth. I spend all my time doing it and input from others is important.
Send me an IM and I can give you my contact details.
Steve
Steve,
I think ATC broker also could be a very good and reliable candidate for your EA, because its spread on EUR/CHF is also better than MBT (at least during day session).
I'll look at both of these accounts of mine (MBT and ATC) this night, in order to see which give the better spread during Asian session on Swissy, then, I'll let you know.
Hope this could help.
SventraP.
If it's too good to be true, probably isn't (true)!
Member Since Oct 28, 2009
1430 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 10:40
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 10:41)
ATC won't let me open an account with them, they have an arrangement with FXCM not to take UK clients it would seem.
I do however appreciate the help and would be interested in your findings.
I've been using this link
mt4i.com/spread/symbol.aspx?symbolid=4
and this link
mt4spreads.com/
To check spreads and obviously discounting any of the brokers that have bad reputations.
I do however appreciate the help and would be interested in your findings.
I've been using this link
mt4i.com/spread/symbol.aspx?symbolid=4
and this link
mt4spreads.com/
To check spreads and obviously discounting any of the brokers that have bad reputations.
11:15, restate my assumptions: 1. Mathematics is the language of nature. 2. Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3. If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.
Member Since May 28, 2010
25 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 10:52
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 10:53)
I didn't know it about UK clients: anyway, I (being Italy resident) also had to pass through FXCM in order to open my ATC live account, but I didn't get any restriction after that.
Besides, what do you think about FXCBS broker? It seems the best one for Swissy's spread during all session (mt4spreads.com)...
Besides, what do you think about FXCBS broker? It seems the best one for Swissy's spread during all session (mt4spreads.com)...
If it's too good to be true, probably isn't (true)!
Member Since May 04, 2010
6 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 12:50
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 12:50)
Hi Steve
That's why I don't think we should allow people to vote systems as 'scams'! Nice results!
All the best.
That's why I don't think we should allow people to vote systems as 'scams'! Nice results!
All the best.
Member Since Aug 20, 2009
266 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 14:23
(edited Jun 07, 2010 at 14:29)
Steve,
I can recommend MB Trading. Their spreads are pretty good, but I have come to learn that spreads are only part of the picture when it comes to the less liquid pairs.
Brokers can show you really thin spreads but the proof lies in the execution of the trade. Your EA should log the spread and the slippage when it makes a trade and that is the only way you will be able to really get see whether the broker is good or not.
When a broker contracts with a liquidity povider(s), they have to balance spread with liquidity in order to ensure execution. By way of example, they could show you a spread of 0.1 pips on the EURCHF but there may only be 1 minlot available at that spread. ....needless to say this is useless since they will have to slip you to a point where they can fill your order.......there is simply no other way(ok, partial fill is a solution, but you get my drift) They call it configured depth of liquidity and it simply means that the lowest spread does not neccessarily make the best broker.
I can recommend MB Trading. Their spreads are pretty good, but I have come to learn that spreads are only part of the picture when it comes to the less liquid pairs.
Brokers can show you really thin spreads but the proof lies in the execution of the trade. Your EA should log the spread and the slippage when it makes a trade and that is the only way you will be able to really get see whether the broker is good or not.
When a broker contracts with a liquidity povider(s), they have to balance spread with liquidity in order to ensure execution. By way of example, they could show you a spread of 0.1 pips on the EURCHF but there may only be 1 minlot available at that spread. ....needless to say this is useless since they will have to slip you to a point where they can fill your order.......there is simply no other way(ok, partial fill is a solution, but you get my drift) They call it configured depth of liquidity and it simply means that the lowest spread does not neccessarily make the best broker.
Wealth Creation Through Technology
forex_trader_3463
Member Since Nov 22, 2009
31 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 14:37
Steve,
Is this an EA that you have written yourself? I have also been developing an EA for the EUR/CHF, but it does not like the past few months with the threat of intervention hanging over the pair. On backtesting it seems to do much better when the global economy is stable. Now with everything in turmoil, the EUR/CHF doesn't behave as expected. Im very interested in you results, since you seemed to have worked through that.
It will be interesting to see how it can do on forward testing with the spreads bouncing around.
Good job. I'll be watching
John
Is this an EA that you have written yourself? I have also been developing an EA for the EUR/CHF, but it does not like the past few months with the threat of intervention hanging over the pair. On backtesting it seems to do much better when the global economy is stable. Now with everything in turmoil, the EUR/CHF doesn't behave as expected. Im very interested in you results, since you seemed to have worked through that.
It will be interesting to see how it can do on forward testing with the spreads bouncing around.
Good job. I'll be watching
John
Member Since Dec 10, 2009
25 posts
Jun 07, 2010 at 14:47
Hi Steve,
I just want to leave a short post here to warn you about the many flaws inherent to your testing results and some ways to get around them. The first and most important is the general lack of execution parameters, since the strategy tester does not take into account spreads,liquidity, slippage, etc, you can be easily overestimating profitability by several orders of magnitude. The second problem is related to one minute interpolation errors which are most likely the cause of the major part of your profitability. If your expert does not explicitely enter or exit trades on the close/open values of one minute bars these errors are bound to be extremely important. I am not making this up it is a well known limitation of the strategy tester. There is an interesting article within the mql4 database showing you how this very easily leads to experts with results like yours, you can check it out at https://articles.mql4.com/163.
You can solve the one-minute interpolation problem by using Dukascopy tick data for the backtests, something which will show you the true extent in which these errors affect your system's profitability. Obtaining this 99% modeling quality backtests is a must for any scalper system to eliminate interpolation problems.
Sadly real execution cannot be simulated and therefore the results of these scalping systems can never be inferred from past data. Even very accurate simulations using tick data may grossly overestimate profitability due to the above live-execution related problems. Personally I do not think that posting these backtests has any effect besides generating hype over obviously unreliable simulation results, although I do believe that you didn't do it with this intent but with the intention to share your findings with others :o).
However bear in mind that your backtests have no connection with reality in the sense that the many variables mentioned above could turn the system from its present simulation results to an account wiping situation in real life. I am not posting this as a pessimist or 'close-minded' individual but to show people who may get overly excited about these results that they cannot be in anyway related to trading reality due to the many limitations of the mt4 backtester and simulations perse. Something that has been shown time and time again and explained clearly in the above mentioned mql4 article with clear examples.
I hope someone finds my opinion useful :o)
Best Regards,
Daniel
I just want to leave a short post here to warn you about the many flaws inherent to your testing results and some ways to get around them. The first and most important is the general lack of execution parameters, since the strategy tester does not take into account spreads,liquidity, slippage, etc, you can be easily overestimating profitability by several orders of magnitude. The second problem is related to one minute interpolation errors which are most likely the cause of the major part of your profitability. If your expert does not explicitely enter or exit trades on the close/open values of one minute bars these errors are bound to be extremely important. I am not making this up it is a well known limitation of the strategy tester. There is an interesting article within the mql4 database showing you how this very easily leads to experts with results like yours, you can check it out at https://articles.mql4.com/163.
You can solve the one-minute interpolation problem by using Dukascopy tick data for the backtests, something which will show you the true extent in which these errors affect your system's profitability. Obtaining this 99% modeling quality backtests is a must for any scalper system to eliminate interpolation problems.
Sadly real execution cannot be simulated and therefore the results of these scalping systems can never be inferred from past data. Even very accurate simulations using tick data may grossly overestimate profitability due to the above live-execution related problems. Personally I do not think that posting these backtests has any effect besides generating hype over obviously unreliable simulation results, although I do believe that you didn't do it with this intent but with the intention to share your findings with others :o).
However bear in mind that your backtests have no connection with reality in the sense that the many variables mentioned above could turn the system from its present simulation results to an account wiping situation in real life. I am not posting this as a pessimist or 'close-minded' individual but to show people who may get overly excited about these results that they cannot be in anyway related to trading reality due to the many limitations of the mt4 backtester and simulations perse. Something that has been shown time and time again and explained clearly in the above mentioned mql4 article with clear examples.
I hope someone finds my opinion useful :o)
Best Regards,
Daniel
Member Since Sep 04, 2009
879 posts
Jun 08, 2010 at 04:32
Dear myfxbook.com administrator,
may I ask you whats the purpose of this new 'strategy' feature??
As far I can judge its gonna be a playground for misleading/ made up/ fabricated/ curve fitted unrealistic nonsense.
This will bring a lot of inexperienced people in jeopardy... this cant be your intention.
may I ask you whats the purpose of this new 'strategy' feature??
As far I can judge its gonna be a playground for misleading/ made up/ fabricated/ curve fitted unrealistic nonsense.
This will bring a lot of inexperienced people in jeopardy... this cant be your intention.
Member Since Aug 20, 2009
266 posts
Jun 08, 2010 at 05:01
pc8multifx,
Perhaps some of us that know our way around a platform would like somewhere to discuss these things and compare notes. Steve is not taking anyone for a ride here and your insinuation is in poor taste.
Perhaps some of us that know our way around a platform would like somewhere to discuss these things and compare notes. Steve is not taking anyone for a ride here and your insinuation is in poor taste.
Wealth Creation Through Technology
