PMI Surveys to Gauge UK Recovery Momentum

Today's spotlight is on the eagerly anticipated PMI surveys from Europe for February, aiming to provide a nuanced insight into the cyclical economic performance at the beginning of this year. The UK has witnessed a marked improvement in business confidence in recent months, offering respite from concerns sparked by Q4 GDP data indicating a technical recession at the end of the previous year. 

UK PMI 

 Source: Finlogix Economic Calendar Reflecting this positive trend, the composite PMI survey for the UK has seen a steady climb, rising consecutively for three months, and reaching 52.9 in January, following a low of 48.5 in September. BoE Governor Bailey, in a recent address to lawmakers, acknowledged the existence of a "very small recession" but highlighted "distinct signs of recovery" in the UK economy. Additionally, he emphasized the resilience of the UK labour market, which remains close to full employment.

Governor Bailey's comments imply that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to accelerate plans for rate cuts based solely on the weaker growth observed at the close of the previous year. The UK rate market is currently oscillating between expectations of the first rate cut in either June or August. For a shift towards an earlier rate cut to materialize, the BoE's optimism regarding the growth resurgence in the early months of this year would need to be challenged.

Today's PMI survey results could potentially serve as a litmus test for the pound, introducing an element of uncertainty if business confidence unexpectedly pulls back. Despite maintaining our short EUR/GBP trade idea, caution prevails, especially considering the pound's recent inability to breach support at the 0.8500-level earlier this month. As markets eagerly await the PMI outcomes, the pound finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating potential headwinds that may impact its near-term trajectory. 

EURGBP 4H

 Source: Finlogix Charts Insights Inspired by MUFG: Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text