ATFX Market Outlook 14th January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 14th January 2025

Oil Prices Surge to Four-Month High as Dollar and Gold Stabilize

Opinion Today:

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 index rebounding from a two-month low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, the S&P 500 gained 0.16%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.38%. 

The dollar index briefly exceeded 110, its highest level since November 2022, before closing at 109.94, up 0.26%. The euro fell 0.4% to 1.0208, and the pound dipped 0.24% to 1.2167. Gold prices dropped 1% to $2,662.10 an ounce as the strong dollar impacted demand. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed about 2% to a four-month high due to expectations that U.S. sanctions on Russian oil would prompt buyers in India and China to look for alternative supplies.

Today, the US December Producer Price Index (PPI) will be evaluated to see if it holds an annual rate of 3% or more. If it surpasses expectations, this could dampen market hopes for rate cuts ahead of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Key Data:

15:35 ECB’s Lane Speaks **

21:30 US Core PPI YoY DEC *** 

Tomorrow

01:00 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook *** 

05:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

15:00 GB CPI & PPI DEC *** 

17:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report *** 

21:30 US CPI YoY DEC *** 

TBD EU German Parliament Vote of Confidence *** 

EUR/USD

1.0278/1.0303 Resistance

1.0197/1.0172 Support 

The euro slightly rebounded against the US dollar yesterday as the dollar's rise paused. It fell below 1.0180 but recovered to 1.0200. This morning, the euro continued its ascent, though momentum remains weak. The 10-day moving average at 1.0300 is a key resistance level. The pair will likely maintain its downward trend unless it is breached. 

GBP/USD

1.2262/1.2296 Resistance 

1.2156/1.2123 Support 

The sterling fluctuated against the US dollar yesterday, hitting a new low in late October 2023 before recovering some losses in late trading. Although it held the 1.2200 mark, it still faced a five-day decline. To gain momentum, it needs to rise above 1.2300.

USD/JPY

158.09/158.33 Resistance

157.06/156.81 Support 

The U.S. dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen for three straight days, reaching a one-week low. The 10-day moving average has become resistance, indicating a shift from the recent highs. However, it is expected to find support at the 20-day moving average around the 157 mark, allowing for consolidation within these ranges.

USD/CAD

1.4436/1.4464 Resistance

1.4348/1.4320 Support

The USD/CAD pair rose and then fell yesterday. Technically, it once surged to a one-week high of 1.4446 but turned around before approaching the high range. The decline of the US dollar also weakened its momentum, and the pair also fell below the key moving average. It rebounded after testing 1.4350 this morning. Whether it will find a direction within this position and those mentioned above moving average range remains to be seen.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Feb)

79.83/80.58 Resistance 

78.18/77.45 Support

The market expects that the expansion of US sanctions on Russian oil will force Russian oil buyers to seek other supplies, so crude oil rose by more than 2% overnight before paring some gains in late trading. The current oil price reached the high range in early August last year, so the focus is on the resistance of the previous high of $80.12. It is not ruled out that there will be some profit-taking when breaking through $80.

Spot Gold

2685/2690 Resistance

2658/2652 Support

Spot Silver

29.89/30.02 Resistance

29.45/29.32 Support 

Spot gold encountered pressure at the beginning of the week, dropping from a one-month high on Monday to an intraday low of $2,656.78. It fell over $30 from its peak, nearly erasing the gains of the previous two days. Gold should remain above the 10-day moving average to relieve pressure from potential declines.

US30

42549/42954 Resistance 

41641/41242 Support 

The three major indexes saw fluctuations overnight. The Dow futures rebounded after stopping its decline, but it faces pressure from the Fed's potential reconsideration of rate cuts. This week, the focus is on bank stocks as earnings reports are released. The Dow recovered from its lowest level since early November, but overcoming recent weaknesses will depend on breaking the resistance of the 10-day moving average around 42,530.

NAS100

21013/21229 Resistance

20586/20317 Support 

As U.S. Treasury yields remained strong on Monday, most large technology stocks closed lower. Although the Nasdaq opened low and ended high, it fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. To accumulate momentum for a rebound, it needs to return to the 20,800 to 21,000 range, which is also the range of the main lows in the previous two weeks. The initial support will shift to around 20,500.

BTC (Bitcoin)

97584/99188 Resistance

92393/90763 Support

Bitcoin rebounded to $94,192.5 on Monday after dipping below $90,000, as investors bought the dip despite concerns over fewer Fed rate cuts. Potential U.S. government token sales and rising Treasury yields pressured the cryptocurrency. Reports of the DOJ's approval to sell $6.5 billion in confiscated Bitcoin added to market anxiety, potentially increasing supply and impacting prices. In technical terms, Bitcoin surpasses $95,800 and will test resistance at $97,584/99,188. If it falls below $92,393, it will target $90,763 support. 

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