UK Inflation Accelerates More Than Forecast

(RTTNews) - UK consumer price inflation accelerated more than expected in October, lowering the chances of a rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December.

The consumer price index rose 2.3 percent on a yearly basis, following September's 1.7 percent increase, which was the lowest since April 2021, the Office for National Statistics reported Wednesday. The rate again exceeded the Bank of England's 2 percent target and also remained above economists' forecast of 2.2 percent.

Core inflation that strips out prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, edged up unexpectedly to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent in September. The core rate was seen at 3.1 percent.

"While inflation is down considerably from this time last year, the larger than expected uptick in October highlights the continuing price pressures in the economy," British Chambers of Commerce Head of Research David Bharier said.

At the November meeting, the Bank of England had reduced its benchmark rate for the second time this year citing continued progress in disinflation but suggested that further easing is set to be gradual due to the upward impact on inflation from the Autumn budget.

The bank had lowered the Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 4.75 percent this month. The BoE had projected headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.5 percent by December.

The next monetary policy announcement is due on December 19. Policymakers are likely to be more cautious on further easing as inflation moved above the target.

Driven by higher electricity and gas prices, housing and household services provided the largest upward contribution to the annual inflation in October, the ONS said. Meanwhile, the biggest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture.

The annual decline in goods prices slowed to 0.3 percent from 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, services inflation rose to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent.

On a monthly basis, the CPI climbed 0.6 percent after remaining unchanged in September.

Another data from the statistical office showed that input prices fell 2.3 percent on a yearly basis in October, down from a revised drop of 1.9 percent in September.

Monthly input prices gained only 0.1 percent in October, reversing September's revised fall of 0.5 percent. Prices were expected to climb 0.5 percent.

Factory gate prices were down 0.8 percent in October compared to a revised fall of 0.6 percent a month ago.

Monthly output prices were flat in October after posting a revised decline of 0.4 percent in September. Economists had forecast a 0.1 percent fall.