Free Trader (By alexre)
The user has made his system private.
Free Trader Discussion
Jul 31, 2009 at 17:13
Can't really say I made it in the forex market , but still trying my best.
I'm more or less on break-even, and didn't get a margin call for 3 years, so I consider my self lucky.
I'm more or less on break-even, and didn't get a margin call for 3 years, so I consider my self lucky.
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:02
(edited Dec 29, 2009 at 14:02)
Man,
As far as I'm concerned you're already half way there. You know rule 1. Stay in the game. Well done. Now we need to work on the strategy.
As far as I'm concerned you're already half way there. You know rule 1. Stay in the game. Well done. Now we need to work on the strategy.
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:13
Thanks Elkart, I really appreciate it.
The problem I'm having now is move from the break even state to the profitability state - hope I'll get there.
It's really frustrating to know you're almost there, but still not enough. 🙄
The problem I'm having now is move from the break even state to the profitability state - hope I'll get there.
It's really frustrating to know you're almost there, but still not enough. 🙄
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:23
We'll you want to work on it? See if I can help a bit?
What time frame are you on?
What time frame are you on?
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:27
Elkart posted:
We'll you want to work on it? See if I can help a bit?
What time frame are you on?
Sure. I guess it can't hurt.
I'm on the 30m, 1H, 4H.
Working with RSI to spot overbought/oversold areas, checking with higher time-frames for entry and lower time-frames for exit.
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:30
K,
Does RSI use volume in it's calculations?
Does RSI use volume in it's calculations?
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:38
(edited Dec 29, 2009 at 14:42)
I'll tell you why I ask. In fx the volume figures are from the broker.Where in equities volume is from the central stock market, so there's one single figure. In stocks, everyone's RSI will have the same reading, in fx everyone's a different one. If it uses volume I mean, I have no idea really. Don't use them.
Any volume based or influenced indicator is thus out. Can't be used. Higher time frames is a must though, but I can see you don't over trade.
Any volume based or influenced indicator is thus out. Can't be used. Higher time frames is a must though, but I can see you don't over trade.
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 14:52
Going to have to quantify that FoK. How to do that?
Dec 29, 2009 at 15:20
oh I meant his average loser is bigger than average winner, and his worst trade is bigger than his best trade. The problem with this is he has to be right more than 50% of the time to make money. This is very hard. He simply needed to make his winners bigger and losers lighter, so that he can be right only 30% of the time and still make a lot of money. This becomes important when he hits a losing streak. There are a number of systems here on myfxbook that make money by taking many small wins and occasionally hits a big loser. I'm not a fan of this. Somewhere along the line they will hit a losing streak and they will be wiped out. These systems function like an insurance company, they collect small premiums here and there and pay out when there is a claim. But insurance companies have reinsurance companies when they have a run, what do these systems have? Nothing. So I think a good trader needs to make sure he can survive even if he runs into a cold period.
Also I was going through the history page and I noticed he has a few big losers. He held his losers too long. He also did some trades in european crosses GBPCHF which was a carry pair mostly until last year. I have no experience trading this pair but if he's trading carry, why not pick an easy and more liquid pair such as the australian dollar.
Also I was going through the history page and I noticed he has a few big losers. He held his losers too long. He also did some trades in european crosses GBPCHF which was a carry pair mostly until last year. I have no experience trading this pair but if he's trading carry, why not pick an easy and more liquid pair such as the australian dollar.
Dec 29, 2009 at 15:53
(edited Dec 29, 2009 at 15:53)
Elkart, I don't think the RSI uses volume so - I'm almost certain.
I use the rsi to spot divergence/convergence which does help to filter out a lot of bad moves. Combining it with support/resistance gives a rather simple but effective trading system.
Fill or Kill, thanks for taking the time to go through my history 😄. I do have some big losers, but as every trader has experienced, it was with the beginner's mentality - 'it must come back, I'll wait just a bit longer', and we all know where it leads to.. (Hint: starts with Margin, ends with Call 😀).
I do try to tilt my ratios towards the positive side; ie have at the worst case scenario a 1:1 risk:reward ratio, and not anything lower.
Regarding the GBPCHF trades - no, I'm not doing any carry trades, it was just some experimenting with my system using different pairs.
I use the rsi to spot divergence/convergence which does help to filter out a lot of bad moves. Combining it with support/resistance gives a rather simple but effective trading system.
Fill or Kill, thanks for taking the time to go through my history 😄. I do have some big losers, but as every trader has experienced, it was with the beginner's mentality - 'it must come back, I'll wait just a bit longer', and we all know where it leads to.. (Hint: starts with Margin, ends with Call 😀).
I do try to tilt my ratios towards the positive side; ie have at the worst case scenario a 1:1 risk:reward ratio, and not anything lower.
Regarding the GBPCHF trades - no, I'm not doing any carry trades, it was just some experimenting with my system using different pairs.
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 29, 2009 at 23:48
(edited Dec 29, 2009 at 23:52)
Alright,
I had a quick look and no volume in RSI. Just to be sure.
So, if RSI itself is working as it should, then what's not working? Is it your entries or exits?
I had a quick look and no volume in RSI. Just to be sure.
So, if RSI itself is working as it should, then what's not working? Is it your entries or exits?
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 30, 2009 at 01:04
61% winners - so guess only the exits needs attention.
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 30, 2009 at 01:46
Quick question, that open trade you have, was your interest in USD or JPY?
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 30, 2009 at 02:51
And in which direction?
Dec 30, 2009 at 08:06
(edited Dec 30, 2009 at 08:06)
Elkart posted:
Quick question, that open trade you have, was your interest in USD or JPY?
Oh sorry, I actually don't have any open trades currently - I'm just too lazy to update the account 🙄.
Elkart posted:
61% winners - so guess only the exits needs attention.
Yep - you've hit the nail on the head.
I get into an entry just fine, the problem is when I want to exit - in most cases I exit either too early, or too late. Maybe I should use another indicator for the exit, I'm not sure.
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 30, 2009 at 08:26
k, but do you often have one trade open?
Dec 30, 2009 at 09:51
Not likely.
An open trade will remain open while the trade signal is valid, or the stop loss is hit, or I spot a counter signal.
In terms of time, I don't have a limit - it can be minutes, hours, days etc'.
I'm waiting to resume trading next week, so I'll concentrate on my exits and will see how can I improve them.
I will post my progress here (if any...).
Thanks for your help Elkart!
An open trade will remain open while the trade signal is valid, or the stop loss is hit, or I spot a counter signal.
In terms of time, I don't have a limit - it can be minutes, hours, days etc'.
I'm waiting to resume trading next week, so I'll concentrate on my exits and will see how can I improve them.
I will post my progress here (if any...).
Thanks for your help Elkart!
If it moves up and down, and I can sell and buy it, I'll trade it!
forex_trader_7
Member Since Aug 01, 2009
941 posts
Dec 30, 2009 at 10:13
I haven't helped at all I'm afraid.
What I'm trying to figure out is how you view trades. I haven't dealt with individual trades for some time. So I have no use for stops or TP's or Sl's for example and exits become a consequence of money management as apposed to an action to lock in profit.
What I'm trying to get to is that if you're handling individual trades maybe it's time for plan B. Rather handle positions.
When you do an individual trade you basically do a double un-diversified prediction. I tend to do single diversified predictions. And there is a fundamental difference between those two. If you do the former you probably have about 20% the chance I have to walk away with a profit.
Now if you have a way of entering trades, which you do, can the same way be used to enter positions and can profit for example be used to seek exits, instead of trying to find the right spot in all the noise?
What I'm trying to figure out is how you view trades. I haven't dealt with individual trades for some time. So I have no use for stops or TP's or Sl's for example and exits become a consequence of money management as apposed to an action to lock in profit.
What I'm trying to get to is that if you're handling individual trades maybe it's time for plan B. Rather handle positions.
When you do an individual trade you basically do a double un-diversified prediction. I tend to do single diversified predictions. And there is a fundamental difference between those two. If you do the former you probably have about 20% the chance I have to walk away with a profit.
Now if you have a way of entering trades, which you do, can the same way be used to enter positions and can profit for example be used to seek exits, instead of trying to find the right spot in all the noise?
