Unlocking the Puzzle of Japan’s Economy During Global Financial Waves

In the context of Japan's economic landscape, it's imperative to broaden our perspective by incorporating recent developments in the global financial area. Notably, the successful dual syndicated deal by Italy stands out as a key highlight. The demand for this deal surpassed expectations, with books exceeding EUR 160 billion. Italy issued EUR 10 billion of the new 7Y and EUR 5 billion of the 30Y, making a robust start in covering its 2024 funding needs. Despite the large size of the issuance, market sentiment remained buoyant, as evidenced by the positive performance of the BTP-Bund spread. It will be particularly interesting to analyse upcoming statistics on allocations, providing insights into the strength of demand from foreign investors. As discussed recently, both foreign and domestic retail investors are anticipated to be crucial subscribers to Italy's net supply in 2024.

Shifting our focus to the overnight market activity, a subdued atmosphere prevailed with no major market-moving news. The 10Y UST yield remained relatively stable, just above 4%, while EUR-USD[KA1]  exhibited a narrow range between 1.0920 and 1.0940. Brent crude prices, having recovered from recent losses, stabilized just below USD 78/bbl. Asian equities, on the other hand, experienced modest declines.

In the realm of European government bonds (EGBs), yields faced moderate pressure, with the 10Y Bund yield rising by 5 basis points to nearly 2.20%. While this level offers limited value, it's less stretched compared to late 2023 when it traded below 2%. The selling pressure may persist today due to abundant supply, and central-bank speeches are expected to provide an interesting opportunity to gauge sentiments regarding potential pushbacks against market expectations of early rate cuts, possibly in March or April.

Looking ahead, the broader financial landscape remains dynamic, with a continued influx of new bond supply from financial issuers supported by stabilized rates and positive market sentiment. Despite potential risk factors such as the upcoming US CPI data release and the uncertainty surrounding the timing and intensity of easing cycles by major central banks, investor demand remains robust. The looming 4Q23 results from large US banks and the potential revision of rate-cut expectations add an element of anticipation to the market dynamics.

In the foreign exchange market, major exchange rates are exhibiting sideways movements within tight ranges. The USD is slightly firmer across the board, especially against the backdrop of slower Japanese wage growth for November, which has lifted USD-JPY back to around 145. Market participants are closely monitoring remarks by central bankers, including Ms. Lagarde's indication that a rate-cut discussion in the eurozone is still premature, potentially influencing EUR-USD. Similarly, Mr. Bailey's expected reiteration that it is too early for the BoE to consider easing might aid GBP-USD consolidation above 1.27. Lastly, Mr. Williams' speech tonight could be pivotal, especially given the mixed economic data released in the US last week. As market expectations regarding the intensity of expected Fed easing evolve, the impact on major currencies remains a focal point for investors navigating through the uncertainties of 2024.

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.