Midweek Technical Analysis – USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD

EURUSD looks fragile below 1.0400 as FOMC minutes are awaited. Will the US jobs data boost the uptrend in USDJPY? Canadian employment figures to test the USDCAD rally.
XM Group | 83 days ago

EURUSD

For EURUSD, the pair struggled near its 20-day SMA and the 1.0435 level on Monday, renewing downside risks. Attention now shifts to the 1.0200 support area, a break of which could see a test near 1.0155, with parity becoming a possibility as well. On the upside, a rebound above 1.0400 won’t boost sentiment unless the pair clears the 1.0500-1.0540 area too.  

USDJPY

December’s nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday at 13:30 GMT could spark significant volatility as traders debate the timing of the next rate cut. Analysts expect a gain of 160k jobs, down from November’s 220k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings may ease slightly to 0.3% m/m but stay at 4.0% annually.

USDJPY has been struggling to close above 158.00 despite hitting a new six-month high of 158.54 earlier today. The technical signals reflect overbought conditions, with traders waiting for a clear break above the 158.63 barrier to target the next resistance at 160.20. An upbeat jobs report could provide a helping hand to the bulls.

Otherwise, if the jobs report disappoints, pressing the price below the support trendline at 157.30, the 20-day EMA could immediately come to the rescue near 156.15. If not, the next pivot point could occur within the 154.85-154.00 territory.  

USDCAD

In Canada, the focus will turn back to the data and particularly to Friday's employment figures due at 13:30 GMT following Trudeau's resignation.

Analysts expect a weak print, with job growth slowing to 25k in December from November’s 50.5k, while the unemployment rate could tick up to a three-year high of 6.9% from 6.8% previously. A disappointing report could seal a 25bps rate cut, pushing USDCAD toward the 4 ½ -year high of 1.4470 or even up to the 1.4500 round level. Then, the door could open for the 2020 and 2016 highs registered within the 1.4665-1.4689 zone.

If the data surprises to the upside, USDCAD may test the support level at the 20-day EMA around 1.4315, with the trendline at 1.4270 also providing a safety net. A close lower could lead to 1.4155.

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