ATFX Market Outlook 8th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th April 2025

Dollars and Stocks Rebound While Gold Experiences Dips Below $3,000

Market HighlightThe global trade war initiated by US President Trump’s comprehensive tariffs escalated further on Monday. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on China, and the EU proposed retaliatory tariffs. Global financial markets declined for the third consecutive day. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones experienced a roller-coaster performance on Monday, with the Dow slightly falling 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 0.23%, and the Nasdaq up 0.1%. The daily volatility of the three major indices was 6.77%, 8.11%, and 9.68%, respectively.

After President Trump's comprehensive tariffs on trading partners intensified concerns about a global economic recession. The dollar index, weaker in early trading, later rose by 0.6%. The euro against the dollar initially rose by 0.7% but fell by 0.35% by the close, at $1.092800. The pound hit a one-month low at $1.2712, down 1.3% against the dollar by the close. The dollar rose by 0.53% against the yen, to 147.66.

Gold prices fell nearly 2% as concerns about a global recession triggered by comprehensive US tariffs led some investors to seek refuge in the dollar. Spot gold fell 1.8% to $2,982.34 per ounce, hitting a nearly four-week low of $2,955.89 in early trading. Oil prices dropped 2%, reaching an almost four-year low, due to fears that Trump's latest trade tariffs could push the global economy into recession and decrease global energy demand.

Key OutlookMarket data is relatively sparse. The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March will be released and may indicate a weakening outlook for the US economy. Changes in business economic confidence directly affect hiring intentions, subsequently impacting the job market. If this data falls below 100, it will be viewed as unfavourable, potentially bearish for US stocks and the dollar.

Key Data and Events Today:

13:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Current MAR ** 

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index MAR ** 

Tomorrow

00:00 EIA Short Term Energy Outlook ** 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision *** 

11:00 BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speech ***  

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.0989 / 1.1050

· Support: 1.0841 / 1.0793

The EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.0900 as the US Dollar strengthens on risk-off flows and escalating trade tensions. Markets await key US inflation and sentiment data, while pricing in Fed rate cuts despite cautious guidance. Upside potential for the pair persists; the volatility pattern may continue during the day, with special attention to the key resistance near the 1.1000 mark.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.2830 / 1.2870

· Support: 1.2660 / 1.2620

GBP/USD continued its sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% for two consecutive days and hitting its lowest since early March. Although it attempted a rebound in the Asian market this morning, fatigue in market sentiment has turned the 1.2800 mark into resistance, potentially limiting its recovery.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 148.93 / 149.62

· Support: 146.83 / 145.96

USD/JPY experienced significant volatility yesterday, opening lower but rising with the dollar's rebound. It posted a slight gain and reclaimed the 146 and 147 levels. It must break the key resistance near 148.90 to continue upward, where daily moving averages converge. Otherwise, there may be a tendency to pull back again. Market participants wait to see the BoJ speech tomorrow at the Asian trading session.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 62.71 / 63.30

· Support: 58.93 / 58.35

Oil prices fell by 2%, approaching four-year lows, driven by recession fears tied to Trump’s tariffs. Brent and WTI crude saw significant declines, resulting in increased volatility following reports of no tariff pause. In response, China and the EU enacted their tariffs. As recession concerns escalated, banks revised their oil forecasts downward. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia reduced prices for Asian markets, and OPEC+ revealed plans to increase oil production, which has negatively affected the price of oil. 

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3024 / 3058

· Support: 2956 / 2923

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 30.80/ 31.36

· Support: 29.34 / 28.90

Gold prices fell below $3,000 due to risky investors locking in profit and a stronger dollar. Trump denied tariff pause rumors, boosting the Dollar Index and Treasury yields. Gold could face further downside risks ahead of the FOMC minutes and inflation data.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 39116 / 39529

· Support: 37038 / 36660

The Dow Futures fell sharply on Monday due to Trump's new tariff threats, dropping below 37,000. Initial recovery rumors faded as markets declined further. Stocks like Nike and Apple fell over tariff concerns. Dow Futures remain bearish, with recovery facing resistance.

NAS100

· Resistance: 18154 / 18708

· Support: 16893 / 16320

The NAS100 consolidates above 16,463 following heavy losses. Although oversold conditions may prompt some profit-taking, the overall outlook remains bearish. If resistance at 18,154 and 18,708 is broken, it could trigger a rebound; otherwise, the bearish trend might persist.

BTC

· Resistance: 81269/ 82704

· Support: 76625 / 75215

Despite concerns over the trade war, Bitcoin rebounded from a five-month low as dip buyers stepped in. Trump's tariffs impacted markets, resulting in shifts to safe havens. The potential sale of Kraken has heightened Bitcoin's decline. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains robust after experiencing support at the $73,000 level. 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.