ATFX Market Outlook 4th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th April 2025

Trump's Tariffs Shake Markets: Will Tonight's Jobs Report Add to the Turmoil?

Market HighlightU.S. President Donald Trump's comprehensive tariffs have sparked concerns about a full-scale trade war and global economic recession, leading to a massive drop in Wall Street indices on Thursday, marking the largest single-day percentage decline in years. All three major U.S. stock indices fell significantly, with the Nasdaq down 5.97%, marking its biggest single-day drop since March 2020; the S&P 500 fell 4.84%, and the Dow dropped 3.98%, both seeing their largest declines since June 2020.

As investors weighed the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and the economy, the dollar fell against major currencies, hitting a six-month low against the euro, safe-haven yen, and Swiss franc. The USD/JPY fell 1.95% to 146.445. The British pound rose 0.66% to $1.3093. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar strengthened, with the USD dropping over 1% against both.

Investors fled high-risk assets, with gold prices nearing historic highs due to fears that Trump's tariff measures could push the global economy into recession. Oil prices plummeted on Thursday, recording the largest percentage drop since 2022, following Trump's announcement of new tariffs and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase production.

Key OutlookThe U.S. will release the March nonfarm payroll report tonight, with market expectations of 140,000 jobs added (down from the previous 151,000). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. The average hourly earnings annual rate is projected at 3.9% (slightly below the previous 4%), indicating a continued slowdown in the U.S. job market without derailing. However, there are still concerns about the impact of the latest tariff policies.

Key Data and Events Today:

China and Hong Kong Holiday

20.30 US Nonfarm Payrolls MAR *** 

20.30 CA Unemployment Rate Mar** 

23:25 Fed Chair Powell Speaks *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speech on Wednesday

FOMC Minutes, US March CPI & Initial Job Claims on Thursday

GERMANY March CPI, US March PPI, and US April Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1119 / 1.1145

· Support: 1.1008 / 1.09817

The euro rose above 1.1100 following new trade tariffs from President Trump and easing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The ECB's March minutes show diverging views on rate cuts, with US tariffs increasing the chances of a cut in two weeks. 

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3140 / 1.3162

· Support: 1.3050 / 1.3032

GBP/USD reached a six-month high at 1.3200 before pulling back, as Trump’s tariffs and disappointing US data pressured the Dollar. The pair remains bullish above the 200-day EMA, focusing on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 147.00 / 147.46

· Support: 145.59 / 145.14

The market remains unstable, with USD/JPY weakening. Due to cautious trading ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report, it's unlikely to drop below 145. Current momentum indicates a correction, with key resistance levels at 147.00 and 147.46.

US Crude Oil Futures (MAY)

· Resistance: 67.70 / 68.42

· Support: 65.36 / 64.62

Trump's new tariff policy has raised concerns about declining global crude oil demand. OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May to address supply issues, with a meeting scheduled for May 5 to discuss June production. U.S. crude oil futures have fallen to $66 per barrel. The market is also monitoring U.S. March employment data and a speech by Federal Reserve officials, which may lead to further fluctuations in the dollar and oil prices.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3148 / 3167

· Support: 3084 / 3064

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 32.41 / 32.63

· Support: 31.20 / 30.98

Gold prices recovered to approximately $3,115 in late U.S. trading, driven by profit-taking. Concerns about global trade wars and geopolitical risks enhanced gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset. Following a more than 2% decline from its all-time high due to a market sell-off related to U.S. tariff policies, the focus shifted to upcoming U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve speeches, which could result in further fluctuations in dollar and gold prices.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 40983 / 41235

· Support: 40412 / 40152

Dow futures dropped sharply to around 40,500 points, a decline of 1,679 (over 3.98%). The S&P fell 274 points (4.84%), marking a seven-month low for Dow futures, which have been declining since mid-February. Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report tonight, which could halt further declines. After the report, Dow futures may continue to drop, making monitoring the data and Powell's speech important for insights on the Fed's interest rate path and market trends.

NAS100

· Resistance: 18890 / 19026

· Support: 18324 / 18192

Trump's latest tariff policy has sparked risk aversion in the market, causing the Nasdaq to plunge by 1,150 points, nearly 6%. Investors are anticipating the US non-farm payrolls report, which could halt Nasdaq’s decline, but further drops are likely afterward. Key attention should be focused on the data results and Powell's speech to understand the Fed's interest rate direction and stock market trends.

BTC

· Resistance: 84891 / 85758

· Support: 81218 / 80365

Bitcoin hovers around $83,000 after failing to close above $85,000. Volatility from Trump's tariffs wiped $200 billion from the crypto market. Institutional investors bought the dip, with $218 million inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting a potential recovery.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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