scwizard (由 scwizard)
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scwizard讨论
Nov 09, 2010 at 11:56
EVERYONE IS WRONG
First of all, QE can't cause long term inflation, because a treasury that yields 3% will pay that 3% sooner or later. QE just makes it pay that 3% sooner by purchasing the treasuries.
Second of all the world will not end.
Third of all, the fundamentals of the equity rally are sound.
A bubble does NOT pop when there are thousands of bloggers saying 'it's a bubble be careful!' Are equities going to pop when Tim Knight is 85% short? Now that Tim Knight is super popular, probably not.
Think about it, how will Joe Trader lose the most money? Here's what would happen:
The dollar goes UP in the MIDDLE of QE2. Now that POMO has entered the main stream lingo, this is almost guaranteed. This will happen for sure once USD/CHF completes the dead goose formation.
Despite this STOCKS somehow STILL GO UP.
In an attempt to 'stat arb' this strange occurrence, Joe Trader DOUBLES DOWN short stocks or short dollar at the advise of his blogger friends.
This 'stat arb' will be successful the few few attempts, training the dog.
Then things dramatically move against Joe Trader and in the favor of big money.
First of all, QE can't cause long term inflation, because a treasury that yields 3% will pay that 3% sooner or later. QE just makes it pay that 3% sooner by purchasing the treasuries.
Second of all the world will not end.
Third of all, the fundamentals of the equity rally are sound.
A bubble does NOT pop when there are thousands of bloggers saying 'it's a bubble be careful!' Are equities going to pop when Tim Knight is 85% short? Now that Tim Knight is super popular, probably not.
Think about it, how will Joe Trader lose the most money? Here's what would happen:
The dollar goes UP in the MIDDLE of QE2. Now that POMO has entered the main stream lingo, this is almost guaranteed. This will happen for sure once USD/CHF completes the dead goose formation.
Despite this STOCKS somehow STILL GO UP.
In an attempt to 'stat arb' this strange occurrence, Joe Trader DOUBLES DOWN short stocks or short dollar at the advise of his blogger friends.
This 'stat arb' will be successful the few few attempts, training the dog.
Then things dramatically move against Joe Trader and in the favor of big money.
u gotta skate
Nov 18, 2010 at 20:07
I opened a gold short when the price returned to the daily trendline. I was planning on holding it for quite a whiles.
Then the philly fed index came out at 22.5 somehow?!?
Very strange number, unexpectedly optimistic so I closed. Turned out it was at a very good time.
Although I guess gold is still resting below the trendline. I should reopen the short at some point maybe.
Then the philly fed index came out at 22.5 somehow?!?
Very strange number, unexpectedly optimistic so I closed. Turned out it was at a very good time.
Although I guess gold is still resting below the trendline. I should reopen the short at some point maybe.
u gotta skate
Dec 03, 2010 at 15:59
u gotta skate
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