TendencyForex's Inlägg - sida 3

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:34

Stocks are modestly higher as the prospect of lower gas prices can take off pressure from household budgets, after a NY session saw a brief dip that quickly recovered. S&P eminis are up 0.2%, while Nasdaq100 futures are up 0.5%.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:34

FX saw NOK lead losses at -0.64% due to the oil price slide, while NZD and AUD also saw declines of over 0.3%. The dollar saw a modest increase, with the bulk of the other currencies in a tight range against the greenback.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:33

Markets have held relatively steady since the European close yesterday. The major moves revolved around a report from Bloomberg that the Biden administration is weighing a plan to release roughly a million barrels of oil per day from US reserves over a period of several months, citing unidentified individuals.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:33

Looking ahead, OPEC+ at 13:00 BST and Biden’s speech at 18:30 BST are the main events for oil markets, with the former unlikely to move markets, while the latter will be closely watched following the Bloomberg report. USD will look forward to Initial jobless and continuing claims, PCE deflator data and some Fedspeak ahead of NFP tomorrow. GBP and CAD see GDP data, CHF and HKD see retail sales data. EUR will be watchful of French CPI and Eurozone unemployment data after yesterday’s hot German CPI print. HUF will eye its one week deposit rate decision where markets expect a 30 bps hi...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:32

Oil markets were in focus after a relatively uneventful post European close yesterday. Asia markets came in to a report from Bloomberg that the Biden administration is weighing a plan to release roughly a million barrels of oil per day from US reserves over a period of several months, citing unidentified individuals. Oil prices plunged, and market moves revolved around this. DXY was slightly bid, while NOK saw the biggest losses in FX. EMFX was bound within a tight range against the greenback. Treasuries and stocks were supported a touch by the headlines as well. Chinese PMI dipped back below ...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 17:06

USD-JPY extended its reversal lower overnight, and has now unwound all of the surgeseen on Monday. Nonetheless, the JPY remains one of the world’s worst performingcurrencies during March, outperforming only the Egyptian pound on a total return basis. Thepartial JPY revival in the last couple of days may simply reflect a correction of an over-shoot. Itis also possible that FX intervention concerns played their part as BoJ Governor met PMKishida today, a couple of days after Japan’s Finance Minister said “we need to closely monitorthe impact of the yen on the economy with a sen...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 17:06

GBP-USD is higher this morning on further evidence of inflationary pressures,but the warning signals on the UK consumer remain plentiful. The BRC measureof inflation on the high street rose to 2.1% YoY in March from 1.8% in February,leaving it at its highest level since September 2011. The conundrum for policymakersis whether to tighten aggressively into this inflation surge, or take greateraccount of the squeeze on real household incomes.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 17:05

EUR-USD has extended its push higher this morning, boosted by much higherthan expected inflation readings. The provisional reading for Spanish inflation inMarch rose 9.8% YoY, up from 7.6% previously, and well ahead of consensus of8.0%. In Germany, March inflation data for individual states suggest a MoM increaseof around 2.5% for the national number when it is released later this morning. Theconsensus is for a 1.6% rise. There has been a notable increase in expectations forECB tightening over the last few days, with the 1Y1M future 25bp higher now than itwas at the end of last week.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 17:05

The dollar remains on the defensive this morning in moves which reflect mixedsignals on risk appetite and locally-driven moves in the likes of EUR and JPY.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:19

MXN: Unemployment Rate NSA at 13:00 BST for February. Citi Economics expects 3.66% vs 3.71% prior. The unemployment rate has gradually declined since H2 2021, despite the stagnation of activity. We expect the unemployment rate to remain relatively stable for the rest of 2022, given i) the moderate pace of activity, ii) overall employment recovery, and iii) the gradual increase of the participation rate.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18

BRL: FGV Inflation IGPM YoY at 12:00 BST for March. Citi Economics forecasts 1.65% YoY vs 1.83% YoY prior. We expect IGP-M inflation to remain elevated in March, as the wholesale component (IPA) should continue imposing upward pressures at ~2.0% MoM (vs 2.4% MoM in February).

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18

EUR: Eurozone Economic Confidence at 10:00 BST for March, followed by Germany CPI YoY at 13:00 BST for March. Citi Economics expects a big drop in the Euro Area economic sentiment index, following last week’s very weak confidence surveys. The team expects the overall index at 103 in March vs 114 prior, with retail trade confidence dipping into negative territory (-2.0 in Marchvs 5.4 prior) and industrial, services, and construction confidence seeing similarly strong dips to 8.0, 4.0, and 2.0, respectively.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:18

GBP: BoE's Broadbent speaks at 09:10 BST. Citi Economics looks for 1) the perceived hit to demand owing to recent energy price moves; 2) the potential for sustained domestically driven inflation in the face of such pressures; and 3) concerns about BoE’s own institutional credibility (and inflation expectations). Comments from Broadbent may be somewhat more circumspect but may nonetheless hint at more near-term tightening.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17

SEK: Economic Tendency Survey at 08:00 BST for March. Citi Economics expects 105.0 vs 113.0 prior as a consequence of the geopolitical conflict and the supply shock. A softer print may dent SEK and hawkish Riksbank pricing in the short-term, given how quickly SEK priced in the hawkish shift in rhetoric from Riksbank officials over the last weeks.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17

USD: Fed official Barkin’s speech at the Rural Economy Event at 14:15 BST. Fed speeches are expected to be hawkish, with relatively little deviation from last week’s rhetoric, which left 50bp hikes well on the table for not only one, but multiple meetings this year, as reviewed by Citi Economics here.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:17

CLP saw a 150bps rate hike late in the NY session, with the overnight rate target now at 7.00%, vs the expectation of a 200bps hike. We flag that CLP had underperformed ahead of the rate decision. The rate decision was followed by comments that future rate hikes will be smaller, in what seemed to be communication that the tightening cycle will be less aggressive in the future. We also flag that the rate hike is the first under new central bank president Rosanna Costa.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16

KRW rallied 0.95%, with bulk of the gains after an open higher (tracking KRW NDF moves overnight). Kospi opened considerably higher, following the gains of US equities, but this tapered off as the day progressed, trading close to flat near the Europe Open.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16

USD: The Fed’s Bostic earlier today noted that he favours six hikes this year, but would remain flexible on the pace of hikes depending on the economy. We note that Bostic is not a voter this year on the rate-setting FOMC.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:16

While we remain bearish on JPY over the medium term and expect portfolio rebalances by long-term investors to be a flow factor depressing the JPY, such rebalances are unlikely to happen in a large scale this month. While the USDJPY rise earlier this month appears to be stretched, we see a very short-term risk of the pair’s correction over the next few weeks with the market expectations for rebalance turning out disappointing.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 30, 2022 at 07:15

JPY was initially under pressure in early Asian trading as the BoJ doubled down on bond buying plans by increasing the sizes of today’s scheduled buybacks and adding long-end purchase operations, something our JGB trader had been looking for.

EURUSD	1.04704	GBPUSD	1.25866	AUDUSD	0.65123
USDJPY	154.179	USDCAD	1.39734	USDCHF	0.88676

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