System8 Diskussion

NAV update. As per 2009 nov 16, 02:57 CET NAV is 5191
(NAV consists of balance plus value of open orders. System is using euros as system currency)

NAV update. As per 2009 nov 23, 01:11 CET, NAV is 4859
(NAV consists of balance plus value of open orders. System is using euros as system currency)

System Change.
System8 has bene instructed to include INR and THB in the basket. These were already there but the spreads the system was required to see before taking positions was so narrow that oanda never got down to that spread level. The new spread requirement should enable the system to sell USD/INR and USD/THB when spreads are at their lowest at oanda. Right now the system have a NAV of 5340 and it is only 17 euros from the level where it will begin to add to positions. The next many trades will probably be short USD/INR and short USD/THB as the system will automatically try to build those positions up to target sizes.

NAV update. As per 2009 nov 28, 14:53 CET, NAV is 4774.18
(NAV consists of balance plus value of open positions. System is using euros as system currency)
Currency swings well within system leverage limits, so the small loss in NAV is simply due to the usd coming back a little over the week.

NAV update. As per 2009 dec 05, 23:42 CET, NAV is 4778
(NAV consists of cash balance plus value of open positions. System is using euros as system currency)
A huge usd rally and commodity correction friday hit the system hard. However, the system was up quite a lot the first four days, so for the week we're a little bit higher. Volatility still within system limits.

NAV update. As per 2009 dec 12, 16:35 CET, NAV is 3839
(NAV consists of cash balance plus value of open positions. System is using euros as system currency)
A huge usd rally and commodity correction last few weeks have taken down some unrealzied profits
however, system is still above its minimum levrage limit and will not take lasting losses, as long as the usd commences its falling trend soon

NAV update. As per 2009 dec 21 04:29 CET, NAV is 3192
(NAV consists of cash balance plus value of open positions. System is using euros as a system currency)
Dollar continued to strengthen into friday, so we took another round of losses.
For the first time ever usd went so high that the system had to reduce some positions to stay inisde leverage limits. Since then usd has fallen back and we're not close to the point where more position reduction is neccesary.

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As per 2009 dec 28, 15:44 CET, NAV is 3516

Status for all systems:
The week we went through started with a dollar rally and ended with dollar giving back most of its gains, ending my systems about where they started. individual currencies were mixed, with the worst performing being gold and yen, the best performing silver and canadian dollars, as well as a few exotic ones in System8. As markets have been going sideways last week one could hope that the current dollar rally is indeed just a correction and that usd is going down again, weighted by bad fundamentals. That is what the systems are set up to benefit for. I have sent some money to my oanda acct, and the systems will get those funds in a few days. Should help S2 and S3 especially as they are totally bust, they need some more cash to work properly.

As per 2010 jan 4, 03:32 CET, NAV is 3334

As per 2010 jan 8, 23:31 CET, NAV is 4221 since last week, eur 156 has been withdrawn

On jan 16, 2010 15:36 CET, NAV was 4263

On Jan 24, 2010 17:28 CET, NAV was 2832 EUR (100 EUR was moved from this system to system3 over the weekend)

General comments on the week :

usd kept getting stronger and gold and silver crashed. That's opposite to my longterm macro expectations and with enough volatility to make the most levered systems loose almost all their money (again). I decided to triple the bankroll of system2, and double system3, while taking off about 10% from system7 and 5% from system8 to fund this. If my lt macro view takes over again this week S2 and S3 can pay back what they borrowed with a nice interest. If not, i'll refund them next time they crash and burn. I am far from certain that the usd rally is over, or the comodities crash is over, the recent chinese decision to freeze credit the rest of the month, as well as the obvious trouble in greece and spain could pressure euro and comodities in the short run, and by a side effect make the usd rise some more. However i don't think the us can keep attracting money for much longer - they do not have the funds to pay interest and debt. their creditors ought to start trying to take some money out of the us, moving rates higher and perhaps support the usd in the very short term, but trigging a default in the longer term. (or a devaluation of usd)

On Jan 31, 2010 18:56 CET, NAV was 1973 EUR(200 EUR was moved away from this system, 100 to system2, and 100 to system3 - these funds were moved late last week).

General comments on the week:

USD kept getting stronger and gold and silver continued to crash. While this is likely a shortterm usd rally inside a longterm usd crash, it has decimated all systems. I keep funding system2 and system3 from system8 as I think the probability of finding a bottom rises fast at these levels. However, i might have to try a few more times before getting it right.

The greece situation is surely not good, but i can't agree as most in the media that a greek default on bonds should be such a great problem for the euro.. i mean, it's just some stupid country having borrowed a lot of euros they won't be paying back. Why should their default pressure the euro? The euro is fine-fine, it's greek bonds that are in peril.

However, if somehow the greek are saved by ECB by printing more euros to them then of course it will increase the euro M0, which is in the end inflational.

I hope and expect ECB to tell the greek to start spending less than they earn, and tough it out. The problem is greek people , companies and government spending more than they produce, the problem is NOT the value of the euro. If they want a declining currency to borrow they can start issuing bonds in icelandic kronor, i don't care..

The story is the same for spain, but i think the problems are worse in greece than in spain.


Looking back half a year or so, one can see that the currencies i invest in have unlocked from each other and are again living their seperate lives. That is a big plus - adds to lowering my volatility as the noise in their moves cancel out each other a little bit.

On feb 6, 2010 20:57 CET, system 8 had 1047 NAV. several times during the week, funds have been moved away from S8 to fund other crashing systems, in eur 100 chunks.

This week we saw euros tank from already low levels of 1.38 to a bottom of 1.358 before ending at 1.367 About at the bottom i moved some funds out from S8 and S7 into the more levered systems 3 and 6. midweek i did something similar, taking money from s8 and putting it into s2 and s3.

Gold and silver are still rather expensive compard to a few years ago, but i don't think the rising worldwide money supply have started to take gold and silver up even more.. Not sure when it happens, but hope i still have my systems running to make a good profit. The euro has been really weak lately, some say because several countries might have problems paying back their debt (which is in euros). As the usd is at least as weak as the euro fundamentally (if not weaker) i find it a bit strange that people rush to usd for safety, but bad habits die hard i guess.

In my other account i am looking at oil.. i hope it tanks some more, then i will start to build a longterm long position in oil futures. Will probably go long oil when i think the sp500 is done crashing. A guesstimate would be around 600 to 800.

Since the top, my combined forex accouts are down about 90% - bad dollar rally ;-) - it will take a visit into 1.6s on eurusd to get those losses back on the book.

On feb 14, 2010 20:13 CET, system 8 had 1264 EUR NAV. Very volatile week, but most systems ended up with gains, mostly due to gold and silver rising some during the week. volatility was almost within limits for system3, it was too much for system2, the other systems did great in that respect.

Account value as of 21 feb 2010 19:16 CET 1431 EUR

Finally a week where things moved relatively reasonably my way. All accounts were up, the gold and silver concetrated ones were up sharply. Need a few more weeks like last one to get back to where i came from, i guess it depends on the relative performance of usd and other currencies. i'm quite sure gold and silver are heading up as they will get more and more important as safe heavens when various fiat currencies get some flak.

Account value as of 26 feb 2010 23:33 CET is EUR 1413. 86 usd = 63 EUR were taken out of the account to pay for the API

This week we saw silver and gold crash (sort of) and the dollar rallying (sort of) into midweek only to have the moves almost entirely reversed when we hit friday. The swings were inside tolerance levels for all systems except system2, which got so wiped out that it couldn't hold on to its single gold position of one ounce. After it lost its gold position (and thus were quite badly 'balanced' between gold and silver, i transferred 100 euros from system 7 (also a silver+gold long against usd) to system 2, to get it back up working. It promptly bought 2 ounces of gold and rode silver and gold a bit down, then back up. This week i had to transfer 600 usd from the systems to the primary account to pay for the oanda fee. 86 usd was taken from each system, so percentage wise it was a big hit for system2, and only a minor hit for system8. My combined trading accounts stands at 3546 euros, after the $600 fee has left the trading accounts.