Deciphering Australia's Economic Puzzle: The Mystery of Money and Trade

Looking at Australia, there's a puzzle unfolding over the last 18 months. While the terms of trade, which is like the value of goods they exchange with other countries, have been easing a bit, they're still better than usual. However, the Australian Dollar's value, when compared to other countries' money (called the trade-weighted index or TWI), seems stuck in a range of 60 to 65 for a surprisingly long time.

Terms Of Trade Australia 

 Source: TradingEconomics This conundrum becomes clearer when we break it down:

1. Tricky Trade Numbers: Think of a seesaw – one side shows that the terms of trade are gradually becoming less favourable, but on the other side, it's still holding strong. Meanwhile, the value of the Australian Dollar doesn't seem to be playing along and stays lower than expected. 

 Source: Finlogix Charting2. Changing Influences: Imagine a scale tipping back and forth. For Australia, the connection between their money and the prices of things they sell to other countries (commodities) is slowly getting weaker. Instead, how much interest they can get on their money is becoming more important. It's like the rules of the game are changing.

3. The Curious Case of Commodities: Now, let's zoom in. The connection between their money and different types of things they sell, like metals and bulk goods, is interesting. The link with metals stays the same, but when it comes to bulk goods, it's like their money doesn't care as much as it used to.

4. Outside Factors: Consider Australia and the United States. The US has been doing well with what they sell to other countries too. When we adjust Australia's trade numbers to be fair, taking the US into account, it looks a bit better. But still, Australia's money doesn't seem to be doing as well as it should.

In essence, there are a couple of reasons why Australia's dollar isn't performing as expected. First, their investment in mining hasn't been growing, even though prices for what they dig up have been good. Second, when we compare them to the US, Australia is a bit behind in investing in businesses. It's a bit like a puzzle, and right now, it seems the answer might have more to do with things happening outside Australia than inside.

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