ATFX Market Outlook 12th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 12th March 2025 

Key U.S. CPI Data Set to Make Waves Tonight

Market HighlightU.S. stock futures rose slightly after a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing trade policy uncertainties. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.76%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.18%. Notably, the S&P 500 experienced its largest two-day decline since early August, losing over 3.4%.

In the face of economic concerns, gold prices surged past $2,900, settling at $2,915.82 per ounce. This was driven by a weaker dollar and recession fears, which overshadowed positive U.S. labor data. The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest since mid-October. EUR/USD rose to 1.0947, while GBP/USD increased to 1.2943, supported by a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Conversely, USD/JPY rebounded to 147.77.Oil prices gained modestly due to dollar weakness, although sentiment remained cautious amid fears of an economic slowdown and the impact of extended tariffs on global demand.

Key OutlookAttention is focused on tonight’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase for headline CPI, down from 0.5%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below 3.3%. This data is pivotal for the Federal Reserve's March rate decision, as indications of cooling inflation could influence their approach. Market concerns may lead to volatility, and investors will also monitor potential developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown and key inflation data tomorrow.

[Financial Data and Events of Significant Concern]

16:45 ECB President Lagarde Speaks *** 

18:00 OPEC Monthly Report *** 

20:30 US CPI FEB *** 

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:30 BoC Press Conference *** 

23:15 ECB’s Lane Speaks *** 

Tomorrow

17:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

18:00 EU Industrial Production JAN ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI FEB ***  

EURUSD·       Resistance: 1.0980 / 1.1018

·       Support: 1.0856 / 1.0808

The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, supported by growing political uncertainty in the United States. Market sentiment suggests that a potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency could increase risks for the US economy. As a result, investors are shifting towards the euro, driving EUR/USD higher.

GBPUSD

·       Resistance: 1.2986 / 1.3057

·       Support: 1.2873 / 1.2817

The Sterling is demonstrating resilience against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD sustaining a firm tone amid the weakening dollar sentiment and market expectations of forthcoming U.S. inflation data. Despite recent volatility, the pair continues to be supported by the anticipation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach to further rate hikes. Concurrently, the Bank of England upholds a relatively steady policy stance.

USDJPY

·       Resistance: 148.95 / 149.27

·       Support: 147.16 / 146.84

The USD/JPY pair hit a new low last October but rebounded to close higher, staying within a low range. While it attempts to rebound, the weak US dollar may limit its upward movement. Attention is on the 148 mark as investors await the US CPI report this evening.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

·       Resistance: 67.46 / 67.82

·       Support: 65.62 / 65.18

Oil prices have moved slightly lower as concerns grow over the potential negative impact of tariffs on global economic growth. Traders worry that weaker economic activity could reduce oil demand, putting downward pressure on prices. These concerns are keeping the oil market cautious despite other supply-side factors.

Spot Gold

·       Resistance: 2938 / 2956

·       Support: 2895 / 2880

Spot Silver

·       Resistance: 33.21 / 33.49

·       Support: 32.29 / 32.01

Gold (XAU/USD) has risen above $2,910 as concerns over a global trade war boost demand for safe-haven assets. Investors are turning to gold amid market uncertainty, driving prices higher. Silver is also climbing towards $32.50 due to a weakened U.S. dollar and growing fears of an economic slowdown, making precious metals more appealing to buyers.

Dow Futures

·       Resistance: 41822 / 42056

·       Support: 40833 / 40595

Dow Jones futures fluctuated amid uncertainty over President Trump’s new tariff announcements. While some tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia rebounded, market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the potential economic impact of trade disruptions. Investors await the US CPI report this evening. Inflation may guide the Fed rate cut and the bullish Dow if inflation softens. 

NAS100

·       Resistance: 19695 / 19887

·       Support: 18851 / 18655

Market sentiment remains fragile following a sharp sell-off prompted by escalating tariff uncertainties. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ 100 continued to feel pressure from cautious investors. Tech-heavy indices like NAS100 may experience limited upside as global trade tensions influence growth expectations and risk appetite.

BTC

·       Resistance: 86708 / 88704

·       Support: 78253 / 76292

Bitcoin has bounced back above the $80,000 level as traders shift focus to the upcoming release of U.S. CPI data. The market shows signs of recovery after recent declines, with investors watching closely to see how inflation figures might influence future interest rate decisions and overall risk sentiment.

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