USA GDP and Inflation Revised Up, Trade Deficit Expands, Employment Stabilizes

The latest economic data release from USA brought updates to several key metrics, reflecting some modest adjustments to previous estimates on.

Real GDP Growth

Real GDP growth for the first quarter has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points to an annualized rate of +1.4%, which aligns with consensus expectations. However, the underlying details show some weaknesses. Consumption growth was adjusted downwards by half a percentage point to +1.5%. Additionally, gross domestic income (GDI) growth was revised down to +1.3%. Combining real GDP and real GDI, the average increase was 1.4% in Q1, suggesting that overall economic activity growth is nearing a steady pace.

Price Indicators

Inflation metrics saw upward revisions in the latest report. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation estimate for May remained unchanged at +0.13% month-over-month, translating to a year-over-year rate of +2.61%. Similarly, the headline PCE inflation estimate was kept at +0.03% month-over-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.53%. These revisions highlight a slight increase in price pressures within the economy.

Durable Goods Orders

In May, durable goods orders experienced a marginal increase of 0.1%, slightly surpassing expectations. However, core capital goods orders declined by 0.6%, missing consensus predictions. Revisions to April data showed a downward adjustment for durable goods orders but an upward revision for core capital goods orders.

Trade Deficit

The goods trade deficit expanded in May, mainly due to a larger reduction in exports compared to imports. This widening deficit reflects ongoing challenges in the trade sector, with exports facing more substantial declines.

Employment

Initial jobless claims decreased by approximately 6,000, aligning closely with expectations. This drop suggests a stable labour market, although the four-week moving average of claims edged up slightly.

Future Updates

We will provide further updates on GDP and consumption estimates following the release of the personal income and spending report scheduled for tomorrow. This report is expected to offer additional insights into consumer behaviour and economic trends.

Key Takeaways

GDP Growth: Revised up to +1.4%, with weak consumption growth.Inflation: Core PCE at +2.61% year-over-year, headline PCE at +2.53% year-over-year.Durable Goods Orders: Slight increase, but core capital goods orders declined.Trade Deficit: Widened due to larger export declines.Employment: Initial jobless claims decreased, indicating a stable labour market.Insights Inspired by Goldman Sachs (USA GDP): Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text

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