ATFX Market Outlook 22nd January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 22nd January 2025

US Stock Futures and Gold Climb Amid Trump Implementing Tariffs

Opinion Today:

U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday, with S&P 500 Futures up 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 Futures up 0.5%. The Dow futures gained over 500 points after President Trump opted against implementing tariffs on his first day. With limited economic data this week, investors remain optimistic but cautious as they adjust to Trump's policies. The Dow is near its 200-day EMA, indicating careful sentiment among traders.

The dollar showed mixed signals in volatile trading amid uncertainty over possible Trump tariffs. The dollar index steadied up 0.01% to 108.00, the euro rose 0.11% to 1.0425, and the pound increased 0.04% to 1.2328. The Canadian dollar declined 0.17% to 1.43 CAD, and the dollar slipped 0.03% against the yen to 155.54.

Gold prices surged to a two-month high at $2,744.39 per ounce, rising 1.34% as investors sought safe havens. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped following Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency, raising concerns about U.S. production oversupply.

Market data is limited today, focusing on ECB President Lagarde's speech and its impact on the euro and European stocks. The US Conference Board's December leading indicator is expected to show zero growth, so investors should consider the data bearish on the US dollar and stock markets.

Key Data:

23:00 US Leading Index DEC ** 

23:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks *** 

Tomorrow

07:50 JP Trade Balance DEC ** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

21:30 CA Retail Sales NOV ** 

23:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash JAN ** 

EUR/USD

1.0465/1.0496 Resistance

1.0337/1.0306 Support 

German investor confidence dropped more than expected in January. The euro fluctuated significantly against the US dollar, initially falling before rebounding and rising for two consecutive days. However, 1.0434 remains a resistance level. If this continues and the ECB president's speech bearish the euro, the pair may drop below 1.0400 again.

GBP/USD

1.2450/1.2505 Resistance 

1.2281/1.2211 Support 

Sterling fluctuated against the dollar following the UK unemployment rate rising to 4.4% by November's end, meeting expectations. The pair fell but rebounded, closing at its highest level in two weeks. Investors should consider the potential impact of the resistance shifting to the 20-day moving average above 1.2370.

USD/JPY

155.92/156.23 Resistance

154.91/154.60 Support 

The USD/JPY pair continued its downward trend yesterday, closing lower at 154.78, the lowest monthly level amid investors bet on the rate hike ahead of the BoJ interest rate decision on Friday. On the technical side, it is expected to trade between 154.70 and the 10-day moving average of 156.59, with maintaining above 155 being crucial for bulls in the short term.

USD/CAD

1.4388/1.4418 Resistance

1.4259/1.4229 Support

Canada's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained high in December, adding pressure on the Bank of Canada for possible interest rate cuts. The USD/CAD pair saw significant fluctuations following Trump's tariff comments, surging in the Asian market but losing most gains, creating an inverted hammer pattern. Additionally, major moving averages on the daily chart are at resistance levels around 1.4370, indicating technical pressure.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Mar)

76.79/77.72 Resistance 

74.92/74.00Support

U.S. crude oil is at $75.55, declining as President Trump considers tariffs in Canada, Mexico, and China, potentially slowing economic growth. His declaration of a national energy emergency raises concerns about increased U.S. output. The EIA forecasts oil prices will decline this year and next due to weak economic activity and energy transition efforts. Suppose the bearish momentum continues and pressures the oil prices if the US oil price fails to break the $78 resistance level. 

Spot Gold

2754/2759 Resistance

2738/2733 Support

Spot Silver

31.09/31.21 Resistance

30.58/30.47 Support 

After Trump's tariff comments, gold prices rose over 1% to $2,745, fueled by safe-haven buying. The US dollar index fell, and US Treasury yields dropped, supporting bullion. In the Middle East, tensions escalated as Israeli forces operated in Jenin. Bulls target $2,754 and the record high of $2,790, but a drop below $2,733 could see support at $2,724 and $2,708.

US30

44227/44601 Resistance 

43467/43087 Support 

Dow futures gained over 500 points and surpassed 44,000 on Tuesday, marking its most significant increase since early November. The level above 44,500 serves as a key resistance point for potential gains. It will return to the previous support level if it fails to break. 

NAS100

21892/22127 Resistance

21333/21145 Support 

U.S. Treasury yields are declining, positively impacting technology stocks, with most large tech stocks rising overnight except for Apple. As a result, the Nasdaq showed stability, initially falling before rebounding to a moderate increase, reaching a two-week high. Its ability to break the previous high resistance near 21,700 remains uncertain. It depends on the large-cap tech stock financial report. 

BTC (Bitcoin)

109383/110509 Resistance

103261/101820 Support

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,241, driven by investor interest around President Trump’s inauguration and the launch of meme coins, $TRUMP and $MELANIA, which hit market caps of $9.6 billion and $750 million in 48 hours. After a 19% rise from January 9 lows, Bitcoin faced resistance at $107,200 but stayed above $100,000. Geopolitical factors, including potential tariffs and TikTok bans, also boosted demand for BTC. Investors should consider these factors when considering Bitcoin's momentum.

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