ATFX Market Outlook 10th February 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th February 2025

Mixed Jobs Report: Gold Hits Record High, Stocks Slide on Trump Tariffs

Opinion Today:

U.S. January NFP: Job growth slowed in January, with the addition of 143,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until at least June. The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.54%, the S&P down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.53%. President Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries.

Following the non-farm data, Federal Reserve policymakers regarded the job market as strong and expressed no urgency to cut rates. The dollar rose by 0.353% to 108.04 but declined for the week, while the pound stood at 1.2409 and the euro dropped by 0.52% against the dollar. 

Gold prices increased for the sixth week, climbing 0.14% to $2,860.39 per ounce. During the session, they reached a record of $2,886.62 amid escalating trade tensions. Oil prices ended higher but fell for the week due to concerns over the resumption of the trade war.

Today, we will concentrate on the market's response to the US January non-farm report released last Friday, which will likely impact this week’s financial markets, alongside other significant US updates. With limited economic data from different nations, investors should monitor the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for February, which is expected to remain slightly negative but may demonstrate some improvement. Furthermore, European Central Bank President Lagarde will participate in a debate regarding the ECB's 2023 annual report.

Key Data:

17:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence FEB ** 

22:00 ECB President Speaks *** 

Tomorrow

Japan Holiday

19:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index JAN ** 

20:15 BOE Gov Bailey Speaks *** 

23:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies *** 

EUR/USD

1.0339/1.0370 Resistance

1.0240/1.0210 Support 

Amid the strong trend of the US dollar, the euro experienced a series of declines against it last Friday, marking the largest drop in nearly two weeks. Technically, it was confirmed that the daily moving average converged above 1.0370 and became a resistance level before accelerating downwards. This morning, the decline continued to a four-day low and briefly tested below the 1.0300 mark, indicating that support is expected to fall to around 1.0240/1.0210.

GBP/USD

1.2418/1.2450 Resistance

1.2311/1.2278 Support 

GBP/USD declined for two consecutive sessions last Friday, dropping after it failed to break above 1.2500. Its ability to hold the support at the 20-day moving average of 1.2375 will be crucial in mitigating the ongoing decline, with a trend line from early January also expected to provide support.

USD/JPY

152.25/152.42 Resistance

151.34/151.17 Support

USD/JPY fluctuated on Friday, reaching its lowest point since 11 December, but closed unchanged above 151. It can potentially rebound towards 152, but it must break the 152.25/152.42 resistance to counter the decline.

USD/CAD

1.4463/1.4526 Resistance

1.4260/1.4199 Support 

Canada's unemployment rate decreased to 6.6%, with a net gain of 76,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. In contrast, the job data from the US presented a mixed picture. On Friday, the USD/CAD pair experienced fluctuations but remained below the 1.4400 mark for three consecutive days. After a higher opening this morning, it struggled to break through the resistance of the daily moving average and continues to consolidate at low levels.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (March)

71.98/72.30 Resistance

70.63/70.32 Support 

Oil prices gained on Friday, bouncing back from two days of losses following the imposition of new U.S. sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports. However, despite this recovery, prices remain at their lowest since December. A resistance test at the 10-day moving average above $72 is necessary to ease the low trading pressure.

Spot Gold

2882/2888 Resistance

2852/2846 Support

Spot Silver

32.18/32.42 Resistance

31.42/31.18 Support 

Following the release of non-agricultural data, spot gold hit a record high of $2,886.71 but retreated as expectations for a Fed interest rate cut remained stable. Spot silver reached a peak of $32.65 before pulling back. Gold prices are maintaining a high range, albeit with slightly diminished momentum. A breakthrough of last week's trend line resistance could drive prices above $2,890.

US30

44600/44737 Resistance

44157/44017 Support

Despite mixed results from the US jobs report, all three major US stock indices closed lower last Friday due to tariff threats. Dow futures fell for two consecutive days, marking their largest drop since 10 January. If this downward trend continues, it could approach the 20-day moving average near 44,000 after slipping below the 10-day moving average.

NAS100

21689/21802 Resistance

21349/21208 Support

Most large tech stocks, such as Tesla and Google, declined by over 3% last Friday, marking the Nasdaq's most significant drop since January 7. It found temporary support at the 10-day moving average. If this holds today, a rebound is likely; otherwise, it may test the 20-day moving average around 21,400.

BTC (Bitcoin)

98346/100451 Resistance

93602/91533 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $97,000 following the release of the US jobs report. As highlighted in CryptoQuant's weekly report, network activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year. Traders should monitor FTX's creditor repayments starting 18 February, which may introduce price volatility. The week began with a sharp correction, reaching a low of $95,000. From a technical perspective, BTC may have experienced a prolonged downtrend since early February. The first support could be at the $93,000 level; if this breaks, it will target the $91,000 level. Conversely, the $97,000 level is a resistance; if it touches and breaks the $97,000, it may reach the $98,000 and $100,000 levels supply zone. 

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