Commodity Currency's Slide As Oil Prices Drop, Fed Policy Announcement

(RTTNews) - The commodity currencies such as Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars weakened against their major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday, as the crude oil prices fell amid concerns about the outlook for global demand, and possible excess supply in the market next year.

Investors also awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later in the day.

A 25-bps rate cut is likely and the release of Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell could signal changes in the size and pace of projected future rate cuts.

Analysts foresee a hawkish shift in the dot plot, consistent with the movement in market expectations since the last update in September.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January ended down $0.63 or about 0.9% at $70.08 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were down $0.61 or about 0.84% at $73.30 a barrel a little while ago.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report last week that there will be a supply overhang of 950,000 barrels per day next year, despite OPEC+'s efforts to curb production.

Recent data from China showed a drop-in refining activity and weak retail sales growth, raising concerns about slowing demand in the world's top crude importer.

Traders also await weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Markets anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than initially expected.

Although February is a possibility, the National Australia Bank (NAB) kept its prediction for the first RBA rate drop at the May 2025 meeting.

In economic news, data from Statistics New Zealand showed that New Zealand posted a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of NZ$6.2 billion in the third quarter of 2024. In the third quarter, the goods deficit narrowed to NZ$1.9 billion and the services deficit narrowed to NZ$397 million. The primary income deficit narrowed to NZ$3.5 billion and the financial account recorded a net inflow of NZ$2.1 billion.

The current account deficit for the year was $26.99 billion (6.4 percent of GDP).

In the Asian trading today, the Australian dollar fell to more than a 1-year low of 0.6310 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 0.6336. The aussie may test support near the 0.61 region.

Against the yen and the NZ dollar, the aussie dropped to 1-week lows of 96.80 and 1.0995 from Tuesday's closing quotes of 97.26 and 1.1009, respectively. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 93.00 against the yen and 1.08 against the kiwi.

Against the euro and the Canadian dollar, the aussie slipped to more than a 4-month low of 1.6646 and a 2-day low of 0.9041 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.6544 and 0.9047, respectively. On the upside, 1.72 against the euro and 0.89 against the loonie are seen as the next support levels for the aussie.

The NZ dollar fell to more than a 2-year low of 0.5731 against the U.S. dollar and more than a 4-month low of 1.8321 against the euro, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.5751 and 1.8223, respectively. If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.55 against the greenback and 0.84 against the euro.

Against the yen, the kiwi slid to a 5-day low of 87.93 from yesterday's closing value of 88.27. On the downside, 86.00 is seen as the next support level for the kiwi.

The Canadian dollar fell to nearly a 5-year low of 1.4330 against the U.S. dollar and nearly a 1-1/2-month low of 1.5056 against the euro, from Tuesday's closing quotes of 1.4310 and 1.5008, respectively. If the loonie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.45 against the greenback and 1.52 against the euro.

Against the yen, the loonie slipped to a 1-week low of 107.03 from yesterday's closing value of 107.25. The kiwi may test support near the 105.00 region.

Looking ahead, U.K. house price data for October, Eurozone final consumer prices for November and the Confederation of British Industry publishes Industrial Trends survey results for December are due to be released in the European session.

In the New York session, U.S. MBA mortgage approvals, building permits for November, current account data for the third quarter, housing starts for November and U.S. EIA crude oil data are slated for release.

At 2:00 pm ET, the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement is due to be released. The bank expects a 25-bps rate cut to 4.50 percent in the monetary policy meeting.

Half-an-hour later, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the U.S. Fed monetary policy decision in the press conference.