USD - Navigating Uncertainty Amid Election Surprises and Economic Shifts

The U.S. dollar has experienced a notable decline since early July, with its value dropping by nearly 5% as speculation intensifies around possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This downward trend mirrors a significant drop in the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which has decreased by about 85 basis points, recently dipping below 3.90%. Compounding this financial uncertainty is the unexpected twist in the U.S. presidential race, where what once seemed a straightforward path to victory for former President Trump has become a much tighter contest. President Biden's unforeseen decision to step down and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris has dramatically reshaped the political landscape, turning the race into a neck-and-neck competition.

USDIndex Daily Chart 

 Source: TradingView Market analysts initially forecasted that a Trump win would strengthen the U.S. dollar and steepen the yield curve. While the latter scenario may still play out, the dollar's future is now shrouded in uncertainty. A closely fought election brings heightened unpredictability, particularly in the immediate aftermath of the vote. This added layer of uncertainty could worsen already challenging financial conditions, especially as the U.S. economy navigates through potential headwinds.

Recent polling data highlights this shift, showing Kamala Harris with a slight edge over Trump nationally, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP). The battleground states, which are pivotal in deciding the election, have also become more competitive, with many now classified as toss-ups. Despite these changes, Trump still has a narrow path to victory based on current projections. However, the evolving economic landscape, including signs of a weakening labour market, could sway voter sentiment as the election draws nearer.

Race Election Trump x Harris 

 Source: RCP - https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-pollsBoth candidates have laid out economic plans that share certain similarities but also diverge in critical areas. Harris has proposed raising corporate taxes and offering substantial support to first-time homebuyers, while Trump continues to advocate for aggressive tariff policies, especially against China. The economic consequences of these policies could be significant, with potential implications for the U.S. dollar depending on how and when they are implemented.

If Trump were to win and enact his proposed tariffs, particularly the suggested 20% increase on most imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods, the U.S. dollar might experience some strengthening. However, the timing and execution of these policies would be crucial. Additionally, the prospect of a prolonged post-election dispute, reminiscent of the aftermath of the 2020 election, could lead to increased market volatility and further strain on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. presidential election carries profound implications for the U.S. dollar, but the exact nature of these effects remains uncertain. The combination of a tightly contested race, potential policy shifts, and possible post-election unrest could create an unpredictable financial environment.

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