ATFX Market Outlook 9th January 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th January 2025

U.S. Stocks Slide on Rate Cut Worries and Trump Tariff Speculation

Opinion Today:

U.S. stock index futures declined on Wednesday as investors evaluated the potential for slower interest rate reductions in 2025 and the possibility of trade tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Following a subdued session on Wall Street, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.1%, while Dow Futures remained steady. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.

The U.S. dollar appreciated for a second consecutive session as Treasury yields extended their recent rise amid reports that Trump is considering emergency measures to implement a new tariff plan. The dollar index increased by 0.28% to 109.00. The euro declined by 0.2% against the dollar to 1.0318, while the sterling decreased by 0.89% to 1.2362. The dollar rose by 0.21% against the yen to 158.35.

Gold prices reached their highest point in nearly four weeks following a weaker-than-expected December private employment report, providing market participants with relief that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less cautious approach to easing policy this year. Spot gold increased by 0.47% to $2,662.06 per ounce. Oil prices fell by more than 1% as a stronger dollar and a significant increase in U.S. fuel inventories last week exerted pressure on oil prices, reversing earlier gains driven by tighter supply from Russia and other Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members.

While the U.S. stock market was closed today in honor of former President Carter, energy, metals, and foreign exchange markets traded as usual. Economic data from the U.S. was limited, and the market is awaiting guidance from tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. In the eurozone, November retail sales are expected to recover from negative growth.

Key Data:

U.S. Markets Closed Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.

15:00 EU Germany Trade Balance NOV ** 

18:00 EU Retail Sales NOV **

20:30 US Challenger Job Cuts DEC ** 

23:00 US Wholesales Inventories NOV ** 

Tomorrow

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls DEC *** 

21:30 CA Unemployment Rate DEC **

23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment JAN Prel *** 

EUR/USD

1.0368/1.0396 Resistance

1.0249/1.0221 Support 

The eurozone experienced minimal growth last quarter, with Germany possibly facing negative growth again. The rise of the US dollar caused the euro to drop for two days, reaching a three-day low. Yesterday's intraday high matched the 10-day moving average, suggesting continued technical pressure below 1.0300.

GBP/USD

1.2409/1.2436 Resistance 

1.2296/1.2262 Support 

Yesterday, the sterling saw its most significant drop in four days against the US dollar, hitting its lowest point since April. The intraday high fell below the 10-day moving average, suggesting further decline. The initial target remains around the previous low of 1.2300, which is expected to provide some support.

USD/JPY

158.58/158.90 Resistance

157.78/157.54 Support 

The USD/JPY pair gained for three days, hitting its highest since mid-July. The rally slowed as it reached a higher range. Watch for consolidation before a potential rise toward 159. Key resistance levels are 158.58 and 158.90.

USD/CAD

1.4414/1.4436 Resistance

1.4348/1.4320 Support

The USD/CAD pair slightly rebounded over the past two days. Despite falling crude prices, it remained within the 10 and 20-day moving averages. Today's movement will determine if it rises above 1.4400 or drops to around 1.4340.

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Feb)

73.58/74.23 Resistance 

72.01/71.50 Support

Crude oil prices reached $75.26 yesterday, marking their highest level since October 11 last year. However, the market witnessed its most substantial one-day decline over a month due to profit-taking and technical resistance. In today's Asia trading session, prices test the 10-day moving average of approximately $72.38, with potential short-term support anticipated.

Spot Gold

2671/2677 Resistance

2651/2645 Support

Spot Silver

30.33/30.46 Resistance

29.89/29.73 Support 

The U.S. December non-farm payrolls report came in below expectations, while spot gold reached its highest level in nearly four weeks. It briefly surpassed last week’s high but then retracted some gains, indicating a demand for additional momentum. Ahead of tomorrow's payroll release, gold may maintain a moderate upward trend, with initial resistance above $2,670.

US30

42954/43360 Resistance 

42150/41641 Support 

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's minutes indicated concerns about potential inflation. The Dow gained over 100 points, breaking its decline but remaining below the 10-day moving average resistance. Attention is on the performance of technology stocks and upcoming U.S. job data.

NAS100

21444/21710 Resistance

20798/20586 Support 

Rising bond yields impacted large-cap tech stocks, causing the Nasdaq to decline. The drop was mild as the market awaits tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. With the U.S. stock market closed today, trading activity was light. Investors will watch if the Nasdaq can surpass 21,000 in this weak environment.

BTC (Bitcoin)

97056/98406 Resistance

93030/91337 Support

On January 7, 2025, Bitcoin dropped from $103,000 to $95,000, suggesting a potential Wave 3 correction following a Head & Shoulders pattern. After rising to $108,367, it corrected to $92,209. If it breaks below $95,000, it may test $91,378 and fall further to $90,000 and $85,000. Investors should prepare for a continued pullback before the US job data release.

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